India 2020 Part 2

Distribution of GDP and per capita GDP (according to income cla.s.s) Income Cla.s.s GDP ($ Billion) Per Capita GDP ($) _______________________________________________________________________.

1996.

2000 2010 2020.

1996 2000 2010 2020.

Lowest 10% 12.47 16.1 33.7 79.1.

130.1 158.8 281.9 569.2.

Next 10% 16.02 20.9 43.8 102.6.

169.2 206.0 365.7 738.5.

IInd Quintile 40.30 52.8 110.3 258.7.

212.8 259.7 461.0 930.8.

IIIrd Quintile 52.60 68.9 144.0 337.9.

278.8 339.0 601.8 1215.4.

IVth Quintile 70.30 92.1 192.4 451.2.

371.1 452.8 803.7 1623.1.

Vth Quintile 141.90 185.9 388.4 911.0.

749.1 914.2 1622.7 3277.1.

Top 10% 94.60 124.0 258.9 607.3.

998.9 1218.9 2163.6 4369.4.

Overall 333.0 436.4 911.72 2140.5.

351.7 429.2 761.8 1538.5.

Note:(i) based on income distributions pattern observed in 1994. (ii) It is observed that growth and inequality have very little Correlation (iii) all the countries are seen to have a more or less similar income distribution pattern (data on china is not available but it is understood that inequality is growing with high income growth). Courtesy: T.K.Bhaumik, Senior Advisor, CII.

Simultaneous growth of both production and service sector .

Modernized agriculturequalitative transition in the economic activities on a large scale .

Substantial increase in small and medium entrepreneurs.h.i.+p with technocrats/ professionals leading entrepreneurs.h.i.+p .

An era of financial revolution .

Technological upsurge in manufacturing, finance, R&D integration .

India leading the world in certain sectors, e.g. mineral based industries (steel, aluminium, special alloys, cement), automobiles, electronics, industries based on human knowledge and skills (software, media, financial services), food processing, drugs & pharmaceuticals, etc.

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Some social indicators The literacy rate can be expected to improve from 52 percent in 1991 to roughly 80 percent in2020.the life expectancy at birth is expected to improve substantially.

There is likely to be a large population of young people with aspirations of a better lifestyle. There would be a large reservoir of literate and skilled persons. There is also a grater likelihood of more women taking part in direct economic activities including entrepreneurs.h.i.+p.

Even while there will be grater urbanization, there would also be greater rural urban integration economically and socially. Integration with the world economy is also likely to bring a number of different consumption styles and value systems.

With increasing prosperity there would also be grater attention to protection of environment. It will be possible to ensure better nutritional and health standards for all our people.

Economic growth, urbanization and exposure to foreign value systems can also bring in various conflicts and alienation.

These are aspects, which need to be attended to on the social and cultural planes.

Perhaps India may have to devise suitable organizational and educational systems and the media to address social and cultural aspects of life .no doubt our ancient wisdom and traditional knowledge would prove invaluable in this effort. Newer information technologies can help in capturing this knowledge and experience of our common people in various parts of the country and make it available to others to learn from.

As we endeavour towards a developed India through economic reforms and other measures, it is worthwhile to recall what the distinguished economist Amartya Sen has said of this: The central issue is to expand the social opportunities open to people. In so far as counter productive regulations and bureaucratic controls, compromises these opportunities the removal of these hindrances must be seen to be extremely important.

But the creation of social opportunities on a broad basis requires much more than the 'freeing' of markets. It calls, in particular, for expansion of educational facilities and health care for all(irrespective of incomes and means), and public provisions for nutritional support and social security. It also demands a general political, economic,

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and social programme for reducing the inequalities that blot out social opportunities from the lives of so many hundreds of millions of Indian citizens.

The vision, as would be unfolded in the subsequent chapters, is based on an a.s.sessment of the Indian people and India's resources. India's core strengths are derived from our resources_ national and human. The technological vision is aimed at increasing social and economic opportunities for our people and to built on the strengths derived from them. A symbolic representation of the vision may be depicted as in fig.1.2. The figure indicates not only GDP, per capita, trade and strategic strengths but also reflects achievements in nutrition, in health, in education, in skill, and in providing various social and cultural for all Indians.

India and the world I have been discussing these points and related issues frequently. I quote from a talk delivered at the Tribune Trust on 22 February 1998 at chandigarh.

Though the Cold War has ended, selective tactics are still of the developed countries. Various types of technology denial regimes are still being

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enforced which are now being mainly targeted against developing countries like India.

Today we encounter twin problems. One side there is a large scale strengthening of our neighbors through supply of arms and clandestine support to their nuclear and missile programmers and on the other side all efforts are being made to weaken our indigenous technology growth through control regimes and dumping of lowtech systems, accompanied with high commercial pitch in critical areas. Growth of indigenous technology and self reliance are the only answer to the problem.

Thus in the environment around India , the number of missiles and nuclear powers are continuously increasing and destructive weapons continue to pile up around us , in spite of arms reduction treaties.

To understand the implications of various types of warfare's that may affect us, we need to take a quick look at the evolution of war weaponry and the types of warfare. I am high lighting this point for the reason that in less than a century we could see change in nature of warfare and its affect on the society.

In early years of human history it was mostly direct human warfare.

During the twentieth century up to about 1990, the warfare was weapon driven.

The weapons used were guns, tanks, aircraft, s.h.i.+ps, submarines and the nuclear weapons deployed on land/sea/air and also reconnaissance s.p.a.cecraft. Proliferation of conventional., nuclear and biological weapons was at a peak owing to the compet.i.tion between the supper powers.

The next phase , in a new form, has just started from 1990 onwards.

The world has graduated into economic warfare. The means used is control of market forces through high technology . The partic.i.p.ating nations, apart from the USA ,are j.a.pan ,the UK, France, Germany ,certain southAsian countries and a few others .The driving force is the generation of wealth with certain type of economical doctrine .

The urgent issue that we need to address collectively as a nation is, how do we handle the tactics of economic and military dominance in this new form coming from the back door. Today technology is the main driver of economic development at the national level. Therefore, we have to develop indigenous technologies to enhance our

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compet.i.tive edge and to generate national wealth in all segments of economy.

Therefore, the need of the hour is arm India with technology Vision for the nation Nations are built by the imagination and untiring enthusiastic efforts of generations .one generation transfers the fruits of its toil to which then takes forward the mission .As the coming generation also has its dreams and aspirations for the nation's future , it therefore adds something from its side to the national vision which the next generation strives hard to achieve. This process goes on and the nation climbs steps of glory and gains higher strengths .

The first vision: freedom for India Any organization , society or even a nation without a vision is like a s.h.i.+p cruising on the high seas without any aim or direction .It is clarity of national vision which constantly drives the people towards the goal .

Our last generation , the glorious generation of freedom fighters, led by Mahatma Gandhi ,and many others set for the nation a vision of free India. This was the first vision ,set by the people for the nation .It, therefore, went deep into the minds and the hearts of the ma.s.ses and soon became the great inspiring and driving force for the people to collectively plunge into the struggle for freedom movement. The unified dedicated efforts of the people from every walk of life won freedom for the country.

The second vision: developed India The next generation (to which I also belong )has PUT India strongly on the path of economic , agricultural and technological development . But India has stood too long in the line of developing nations .

Let us , collectively, set the second national vision of Developed India . I am confident that it is very much possible and can materialize in 1520 years time.

Developed status What does the developed nation status mean in terms of the common man ? It means the major transformation of our national economy to make it one of the largest economies in the world where the country men live well above the poverty line, their education and health is of high standard national security reasonably a.s.sured, and the core competence in certain major areas gets enhanced significantly so that the production

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of quality goods, including exports, is rising and thereby bringing allround prosperity for the countrymen. What is the common link needed to realize these subgoals? It is the technological strength of the nation, which is the key to reach this developed status.

Build around our strength The next question that comes to the mind is, how can it be made possible? We have to build and strengthen our national infrastructure in an allround our existing strengths including the vast pool of talented scientists and technologists and our abundant natural resources. The manpower resource should be optimally utilized to harness Health care, services sectors and engineering goods sectors, We should concentrate on development of key areas, namely agriculture production, food processing, materials and also on the emerging niche areas like computer software, biotechnologies and so on. The common link required to bring this transformation is the human resources. Therefore, adequate attention needs to be paid to development of special human resource cadre in the country to meet these objectives.

Beyond 2020 The attainment of a developed status by 2020 does not mean that we can then rest on our laurels. It is an endless pursuit of wellbeing for all our people. Our vision of a developed nation integrates this element of time within it as well. Only people with many embodied skills and knowledge and with ignited minds can be ready for such a longterm vision. We believe that it is possible to develop our people to reach such a state, provided we can follow a steady path and make available to the people the benefits of change all through their lives. They should see their lives and those of others improving in actual terms, and not merely in statistical tables.

Actions This means the vision should become a part of the nation, transcending governmentsthe present and the future. To make this happen, several actions are required. An important element of these efforts is to develop various endogenous technological strengths. After all, technologies are primarily manifestations of human experience and knowledge and thus are capable of further creative development, under enabling environments.

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We have often asked others and ourselves why India in its several thousand years of history has rarely tried to expand its territories or to a.s.sume a dominating role.

Many of the experts and others with whom we had a dialogue referred to some special features of the INDIAN psyche which would partly explain this :greater tolerance ,less discipline ,lack of a sense of retaliation, more flexibility in accepting outsiders , great adherence to hierarchy, and emphasis on personal safety over adventure.

Some felt that a combination of many of these features have affected our ability to pursue a vision edaciously. We will give glimpses of these views in later chapters.

We believe that as a nation and as a people we need to shed our cynicism and initiate concrete action to realize the second vision for the nation. The first vision, seeded around1857,was for India to become politically independent the second one is to become a fully developed nation. Our successful action will lead to further action, bringing the vision much closer to reality. Perhaps in a decade from now we may even be urged as having been cautious and conservative! We will be happy if the actions taken proves that they could have been still bolder in advocating a faster march towards a developed India!

We had written this chapter before the nuclear tests on 11 May 1998. The details of the umbers projected in the tables And figures may change but our belief in what we say there remains unchanged. In any case, they are meant to be indicative of directions for change. we have seen the reactions to the tests within the country in the Indian and foreign media. We have also had the benefit of private conversations with many Indians. In all these, I observed one striking feature: a number Of persons in the fiftyplus bracket and especially those who are In powerful positions in government , industry ,business and academia , seem to lack the will to face problems. They would like to be supported by other countries in every action we have to take in the country. This is not a good sign after fifty years of an independent India which has all along emphasized 'self reliance'.

We are not advocating xenophobia nor isolation. But all of us have to be clear that n.o.body is going to hold our hands to lead us into the 'developed country club'. Nuclear tests are the culmination of efforts to apply nuclear technolgy for national security. When we carried out the tests in may 1998 , India

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witnessed issuing of sanctions by a few developed countries. In the process, the same countries have purposely collapsed their own doctrine of global marketing, global finance systems and global village. Hence India has to evolve its own original economic policy, as well as development, business and marketing strategies.

It is not just that the Indian nuclear tests are resented. If tomorrow Indian software export achieves a sizable share in the global market, becoming third or fourth or fifth in size , we should expect different types of reactions. Today, we are a small percentage of the total trade in software or information technology. Similarly , if India becomes a large enough exporter of wheat or rice or agrofood products to take it into an exclusive club of four or five top foodgrainexporting nations, various new issues would be raised couched in scientific and technical terms ranging from phytosanitary specifications to our contribution to global warming.

Multilateral regimes to these effects exist in terms of General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs(GATT)and other environment related multilateral treaties. India cannot afford not to sign these treaties, though we could have done our homework a little better during the negotiations. We have to face what we have with us. We need to play the multilateral game, attract foreign investments , have joint ventures and be an active international player. Still , we have to remember that those who aim high, have to learn to walk alone too, when required.

There are economic and social problems in southeast Asia and j.a.pan. Each country is trying to tackle them in its own way. There is a variety in the approaches. Some may overcome the difficulties and some may not. We believe India can still emerge a major developed country and all its people can contribute to and share in the prosperity. Our hope lies in the fact that even in the older generation, there are a number of persons who are ready to face the challenges.