India 2020 Part 11

Source: TIFAC Technology Vision 2020 Report on chemical process industries TABLE 6.3.

Indian Chemical Industry: Sector Growth Pattern Annual Growth in Total Turnover (per cent) S. No. Sectors 199192 199293 199394 199495 199596 199697.

1 chemicals& 28.5 12.2 11.7 29.6 21.8 8.5.

plastics 2 Inorganic 26.2 36.7 10.1 42.3 20.1.

11.8.

3 Alkalies 24.1 18.2 11.0 27.3 59.7 4.4.

4 Fertilizers 32.4 3.7 1.7 30.3 15.0.

3.6.

5 paints& 21.4 6.3 10.3 20.5 18.7 4.1.

varnishes 116.

6 drugs& 24.2.

23.5 20.2 24.6 21.8.

21.1.

pharmls 7 soaps& 22.0 2.0 15.5 25.2 18.9 26.8.

detergents 8 polymers 42.6 17.0 8.6 37.0 21.5 2.7.

9 plastic products 35.4 15.8 32.0 43.6 33.7 5.6.

10 petroleum 8.8 16.5 5.4 33.6 19.6

28.0.

products source: CMIE Report on Indian Corporate Sector, April 1998 In terms of generic product user segments or characterized by functional areas like dyestuffs, pesticides and so on. But broader divisions like bulk chemicals and specialities are also used. Based on projections of basic indices like population, percapita income, industry, agriculture and services, the growth indicators for the Indian chemical industry can be envisioned as in table 6.4. If we add a component of vigorous action for exports, the growth would be much higher than what is indicated in here.

TABLE 6.4.

Growth Indicators for the Chemical Industry Sector 1995 2020 Growth (million tones) (million tones) petroleum 70 240250 3.5 times Fertilizers 9 >20 8.5 times Polymers 1.7 >15 8.5 times Fibres 0.8 >5 6.0 times Organic chemicals 3 20 6.0 times Dyestuffs & pigments 0.1 0.21 2.0 times Leather chemicals 0.1 0.51.0 5.0 times 117.

Surface active agents 0.3 0.7 2.5 times Surface coatings 0.5 1.5 3.0 times Speciality chemicals 0.1 2.0 20 times Source: TIFAC, Technology Vision 2020, Chemical Process Industry Table 6.4 indicates areas which are likely to provide major opportunities for innovation.

Speciality chemicals stands out, followed by polymers and fertilizers. The basic domestic demand would stabilize the minimum demand, thus enabling investments in R&D. With good R&D, these industries can venture into the export market.What is the chemicals technology vision?So far, the industry's growth has been based on imported process technology. However, the strong capabilities established in R&D, engineering and equipment manufacturing have led not only to the a.s.similation of imported technology but also to the development of indigenous technology. We have reached a level in certain areas (particularly in batch processes) where we are not only compet.i.tive but have achieved excellence. The capabilities in equipment manufacture and plant construction have made India a choice for certain chemical manufacturing facilities. The combination of a base of imported technology and capabilities built up indigenously led initially to product and process improvement. Equipment and engineering developments also contributed towards continuous improvements in process technology and engineering to optimize efficiency and reduce emissions and waste products. Despite remarkable growth and diversification in the chemical industry, our technological strengths in process design and engineering have been poor. We have and are depending upon imported process technologies to a very large extent.

The demands are now for cleaner process with total recycling and recovery for highly energyefficient, tailormade products a s.h.i.+ft from batch to continuous processes and for increased automation.

The target for Indian industry and inst.i.tutions is to achieve their own processing technologies for most of their products by 2020. A mastery of the science and engineering of catalysts is imperative. The country should be capable of designing higher capacity and low energy consumption processing machines, and exporting them as well.

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Indian chemical technology can also aspire to be one of the leaders in generating environmentally clean and safe products, which would mean zero waste technologies in addition to total recycling capabilities. We should also to innovate newer applications.

A new area is emerging which draws on the convergence of chemistry and biology in some sectors. India should prepare to reap rich benefits from this development.

Biologically catalyzed processes for production of fine organic chemicals and pharmaceuticals will be a force to reckon with by the turn of the century. Bioengineering systems will be used to dispose of hazardous waste and also to generate valuable by products. The technologies invoved are biocatalysis, bioengineering system, biomolecular materials and biomaterials.Engineering bacteria and other organisms to synthesize monomers , polymers, pharmaceutical and other chemicals is now possible, as is synthesis of olyphenylenes using bacteria and benzene. Bioorganisms will be utilized to carry out the elaborate sequences of organic reactions that convert simple building blocks into complex natural products in aqueous environments close to room temperature. Many natural products which were replaced with synthetic subst.i.tutes would reappear as a result of genetic engineering and other biotechnology techniques for higher efficiency and cleaner process conditions.Some of the areas indicated above provide India with the opportunity to play a leading role in this industry. That is the vision we need to capture of actions.As can be seen from the earlier parts, the field covered by the chemicals industry is very large. It offers many opportunities but is at the same time subject to restrictions placed by environmental considerations. It is vulnerable to constraints imposed by intellectual property rights regimes. If action is taken in advance , the threats can be converted into opportunities. Figures 6.1, 6.2and 6.3 attempt to encapsulate the vision for this vast sector. A few elements such as petroleum and natural gas, speciality chemicals, polymers and petrochemicals are addressed in these figures.

The left side describes the current scenario and the right side gives the vision for 2020.

Biodiversity and national wealth We have just seen how biotechnology is going to affect future chemical technologies, and how much it can help in agriculture 119.

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and the agrofood processing sectors. Much more is in store.

In our search for a developed India our rich biodiversity appears to be one of our significant research bases. Let us look at figure 6.4,which is the Biodiversitytechnology matrix.

It is somewhat ironic in that in human history most countries which are rich in biodiversity have been by and large poor, while affluent and technologically advanced countries are poor in bioresources! India is in a unique position. We are rich in bioresources and have a sound technological and industrial base, but this has to be further strengthened. If only we could capture the wealth of these biological resources through the a.s.siduous application of technology, we could easily become an economic power to reckon with. If we do not capitalize on ourtechnological and industrial strengths to tap our rich biodiversity, and depend on the West for our biodiversity will flow to the developed world. We may end up deriving only marginal benefits. Also India can easily reach quadrant 2 in theFigure 6.4 as with the wealth so generated from our eco resources, it can invest in other areas of technologies as well.

The applications drawn from the life sciences are going to affect almost all walks of economic and social life in the coming years. Biosensors are likely to be used to monitor environmental pollution or in the a.n.a.lysis of blood or to judge a fruit's ripeness.

Computational systems closer to the operation of the human brain are likely to emerge in future. These apart, there are a number of potentially significant applications in agriculture, health care, marine and industrial sectors. Herbal medicines and marine products are likely to emerge as huge areas of income generation and employment.

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The rediscovery of traditional knowledge bases The benefits of modern science may not have reached all parts of the world but there is a far greater awareness of these among people. People are now demanding more equitable Share of the fruits of modern knowledge and skills.In India too the benefits of scientific and technological breakthroughs have not reached all segments of our society.Until this happens, we cannot claim that India is truly a developed society. We echo the feeling of what the national poet Subrahmanya Bharathi wrote in Tamil: 'If a single man does not have food to eat, we will destroy this world.'

The quest to ensure that such benefits reach all has led to an important development, especially during the latter half of the twentieth century: that is, the breakdown of dogmas regarding the origin of knowledge. Earlier, advocates of thescientific approach scorned the many skill and knowledge from ancient societies on the grounds that they were not completely rational and empirically proven . Even the elite from the ancient societies, which were mostly underdeveloped,ignored these older skills and knowledge base. The rush for development was synonymous with imitating some developed nations.The explosive growth of technologies and the resultant environmental and other problems led many thinkers, scientists and technologists to question the singletrack approach to knowledge. Many of the ancient the knowledge bases, such as tribal societies, are being revisited. Large amounts of data on traditional systems of medicine, the use of herbs, and even metallurgy has been gathered. After the a.n.a.lysis of possible patterns in these data, modern scientific methodologies and new technological means can be used to considerable' value add' to ancient knowledge and experience. This is what we see in the spate of inventions around neem or tamarind or turmeric or basmati rice. Similarly, the knowledge base of other civilizations is also being extensively utilized: Chinese acupuncture techniques are being used the world over.

Serious studies of Sanskrit are being undertaken for possible applications to computer language. It is noteworthy that developed countries, many of which themselves are not rich in biodiversity, are taking a lead in such studies. Since the developed countries jealously 124.

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protect their intellectual property rights and trade secrets, they have ensured a lead in these areas as well.

An officer in Andhra Pradesh who was in charge of tribal development found that the tribals put certain gums and wood materials in turbid water to make the water clear.

Apparently some chemical or physical action takes place which absorbs the materials that make the water turbid. Being curious, this officer asked some scientists he knew to study the materials. After experimentation they found that the materials used by the tribals even had the property of absorbing heavy minerals such as nuclear metals. The officer wanted to pursue the investigation further. As often happens in our system, he faced resistance.

He tried to approach a few laboratories which did not respond. A foreign university showed interest. What the officer established was that a new technology based on tribal knowledge was a viable proposition. The case of sarpagandhi is another example. The ancient knowledge of this plant led to the invention of Serpasil, which is used for controlling blood pressure.

We are aware of many foreign companies which are funding academics from Indian universities to record such ancient knowledge. These companies can pay research scholars handsomely to recover this knowledge for them.

What should India's response be? Just to vent our moral indignation and talk about exploitation by the developers? We believe that the most crucial action India has to take is to step up our technology to chart out and understand our biodiversity, to protect it, and above all to forge new technologies out of our rich biodiversity. If we have to play the game of converting materials into intellectual products or actual products to be protected legally, let us do so. Let us these not merely to enrich a few in our country but to create sustainable wealth for all people. Let us also attempt global leaders.h.i.+p in the production of such commodities.

We believe that the newer turns in modern technological advances, be they studies of natural products, biotechnology or information technology, offer a new set opportunities for us to not only catch up with the developed nations but to surpa.s.s many of them.

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How to achieve it?

Technology Vision 2020 doc.u.ments on life sciences and biotechnology contain details of efforts to realize the benefits of india's biological wealth and to channel these for the general good.

We want to share with the readers some of the excitement and opportunities that lie ahead of us in fulfilling this major task.Even those familiar with basic indian geography will be aware of the rich flora and fauna of the Himalayas, of the northeast, the coastal region, and central India. Even the desert regions of the rajasthan have their own special palntsand animals. If we, as a nation, will it, we can organize a systematic campaign to utilize the talents of colleges, schools and several other local inst.i.tutions to record the availability of various bioresources. Thanks to our survey organizations and several other research inst.i.tutions, considerable information has already been collected.

This can be updated and oriented towards an action plan:of protection and conservationof systematic study and utilization then of protecting various rights relating to intellectual property or similar rights and of economic utilization.In addition to these physical surveys, the local knowledge of biodiversity can be doc.u.mented.This is where the involvement of others from the disciplines of lingustics, sociology and so on also comes into the picture . If the teams are resourceful enough, they should not stop at collecting such information alone. They can collect information on local arts, music, crafts and other skills. Modern technology, with its video cameras, laptop computers and tape recorders has made this task easier than ever before. This will also help to identify those sources of knowledge which hold economic potential. People in different parts of the country can share the sights and sounds of a particular region.

Another rich bioresource is our long coast. We have more than 3500 km of coastline on the mainland, including that of Lakshadweep and the Andaman and Nicobar islands this increases to 7516 km. India has the unique privilege of an ocean being named after it. Still, many Indians are landlocked. We look forward to a day when all Indian children can happily enjoy a swim in our sea waters. Our neglect of the ocean leads not merely to a loss of enjoyment but to an economic loss. We only minimally harvest our fish. There are many varieties of seaweed which could be used for food or medicinal purposes. In addition, certain marine plants, animals and microorganisms 127.

hold the key to growing plants in saline regions. For example, growing plants to make them resistant to salinity. There are many active ingredients in marine resources which hold good promise as drugs and pharmaceuticals. Already there are some drugs for cancer treatment which are derived from marine sources. This is another rich bioresource India should learn to understand and to use, without, of course, being rapacious.

HIMALAYAN MEDICINAL PLANTS-AN EXAMPLE India is rich in medicinal plant which are available all across the subcontinent. Many 'folk' medicines and practices are prevalent even today. There have been several systematic studies about these, though they cannot claim to be complete or adequate.

Here we will quote a few examples of such studies being conducted in some of the remotest parts of India, in the Leh and Nubra valleys. These are doc.u.mented in the volumes on Cold Desert Plants by Om Prakash Chaurasia and Brahma Singh of the Field Research Laboratory, DRDO at Leh. Here one may add the almost all the climatic regions in the world are represented in India-roughly in the same ratio as the global distribution of such geographical zones. Cold deserts, for example, are found in the interior of Asia and in the intermontane zone of North America. Of the total world land ma.s.s 16 per cent is under cold deserts. In India cold deserts come under the trans Himalayan zone, and are confined to Ladakh in Jammu and Kashmir and Lahaul and Spiti in Himachal Pradesh.

In India, the history of medicinal plants can be traced back to the Vedic period (45001500 BC). The ident.i.ty of several plants, viz. semal, pithuan and papal referred to in the suktas of the Rig Veda can be fixed with reasonable certainty. While the Rig Veda contains only minor references to medicinal plants, the Atharva Veda contains more detailed information, describing about 2000 species and their uses.

After the Vedic era, the works of the renowned physicians Charaka and Susruta, namely the Charaka Samhita and Susruta Samhita, deal with about 700 drugs of daily and specific uses. Between the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries India witnessed great upheavals in the development of medical botany and some of the most widely used herbal 128.

drugs came to light in this period. For this reason the period is also called the Age of Herbal Medicine.

It has been estimated that out of about 2000 drugs that have been used extensively in India, Only 200 each are of animal and mineral origin while the rest are of plant origin.

Since time immemorial, Himalayan flora has been a major source of medicinal plants, and the cold desert is not an exception to this. The people of the cold desert is still prefer herbal prescriptions based on the Tibetan system of medicine.Herbal medicine is practiced by specialized local doctors called Amchis. Herbal plants available in this region have been found useful in the treatment of diarrhea, cold, cough, stomach complaints, headache and skin diseases. Besides certain plant species found in this area such as Peganum harmala and Artemisia spp. have been found useful in controlling problems a.s.sociated with menstruation and as aphrodisiacs.

Information about the growth areas, growth patterns and usefulness of medicinal plants has been gathered. This has been done with the help of Amchis, local tribals and by scanning of available literature.

These examples are only ill.u.s.trative of the immense potential by way of medicinal plants in India. Imagine the possibilities if a detailed survey is done in each village or taluk of our country, and, above all, if we use this knowledge to make concrete value addition, and for commercialization. Can we rise up to this challenge? We believe we can, and with relatively modest investment. Let our vision be charged with the desire to extract the best out of our biological wealth.

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CHAPTER 7.

MANUFACTURING FOR THE FUTURE.

If the three ranges of time, it is naturally hardest to get people to think about the long term vision of a more sustainable world, but it is vial that we overcome our reluctance to make concrete images such a world.

Murray GellMann The presence of traditional Indian skills in medicine, metallurgy, construction, textiles, hydraulics or early s.h.i.+pbuilding was an integral part of our innovativeness in ancient and medieval times. Witness the splendid metal icons and monuments like the Taj Mahal which were created employing intricate human skills and human/animal power. India was renowned for her prowess in skills as diverse as surgery and muslin weaving. We were advanced in the use of fire and in metallurgy. Still, the invention of machines that generate their own locomotive power by burning external fuels eluded medieval India.

The internal combustion engine, the cornerstone of the industrial revolution in Europe, reached India only in the colonial period. India was a latecomer in learning the new manufacturing techniques invented in Europe. It was only in the late nineteenth and the first half of the twentieth century that India established a few sugar factories, steel and textile mills and began to think in terms of ambitious projects like s.h.i.+pbuilding and aircraft and automobile manufacture thanks to visionaries like Walchand Hirachand.

THE MODERN FACE OF MANUFACTURING.

Mankind has seen rapid transformation in the last 150 years because of the ma.s.s manufacturing techniques perfected in western nations and later taken to new levels of efficiency by j.a.pan. Ma.s.s production and production for the ma.s.ses became the bases of new business strategies. Largescale consumption by all with the social benefit of removing poverty became the dominant economic strategy.

The advent of electricity and its largescale application to lighting, heating and operating machines added a fresh dimension to manufacturing. By the 1950s came inventions in electronics and transistor devices to be followed by innovations in 130.

microelectronics, computers and various forms of sensors, all of which irreversibly altered the manufacturing scene. It is now no longer necessary to make prototypes in a factory or a laboratory to study an new product. Many new products can be designed on computers, and their behaviour simulated on them. By choosing an optimum design through such simulations, computer programmes can directly drive the manufacturing processes. These processes are generally called Computer Aided Design (CAD) and Computer a.s.sisted Manufacturing (CAM). These capabilities are leading to newer forms of demands by customers. Each customer can be offered several special options.

Customized product design or flexible manufacturing are other popular techniques currently in vogue in many developed countries.

The tools used in manufacturing today have multiplied greatly: lasers and waterjets are in increasing use. It is no longer specialized steels or even ceramics which monopolize the cutting tool industry. Itr is hard to believe that lasers can be used to cut heavy steel plates are also for delicate eye surgery. Can you imagine that the plain water you use at home can be used to cut steel? Water pumped at high pressures and focused as a jet cuts cleanly. This technology holds a promise for use Underwater, for example for offsh.o.r.e installations.

To digress, anything focused, and focused sharply, becomes a good cutting edge or a welding source. A laser is a focused and coherent source of light. A waterjet is a sharply directed high pressure jet. If we also, as a country and as a people, focus our efforts to eradicate poverty and to develop in a sustained manner, we don't think any obstacle could withstand the force of that collective, coherent, and focused will!

According to the TIFAC Task Forces on Technology Vision 2020, India stands to gain enormously by the coupling of computers and the manufacturing process. Here we have many success stories, albeit small compared to the potential, which encourage us to share this vision.

What are these? First and foremost is, of course, the fact that India is being looked at as a source of software the world over. Bangalore has become sysnonymous with the software prowess of India. Now Hyderabad is also being called Cyberabad to symbolize 131.

its emergence as a software and information technology city. In fact, it is not only these two cities but all of India which contributes to software export. How does this happen?

The fullest credit goes to the many youngsters from Indian schools and colleges. To earn a livelihood, they have adapted their skills to suit the demands that have arisen, and performed splendidly.

The real issue before us is how to draw out the great potential of our people, their ability to work hard, and their motivation to learn more in order to excel. We will address this aspect elsewhere too. But suffice it to say that Indians have to be triggered by a vision, a supportive environment and some personal benefits to them and to their families. Many of those who left the country in the past fifty years were motivated by these requirements. When our own country did not offer a challenge or an opportunity for a better life, they sought it elsewhere.

Let us come back to the discussion of our software strengths. There are some in our country who casually dismiss it as mere 'data entry' strength. This si taking a very narrow view of things. No big economy can survive only with activities which demand highly intellectual inputs. The economies of America, Germany, j.a.pan or China will bear this out. But, in the long term, there is one element which should make us feel concerned. Can this boom of software export and application last for decades, merely based on software developed in other advanced countries which is operated by our people, as application support personnel, data a.n.a.lysts and market developers? Also, as it happens nowadays those who create the original design very often reap most of the benefits, due to the nature of technology and often because of various forms of protection-trade contracts or intellectual property rights. Microsoft's success is a cla.s.sic example of these trends. Microsoft has world rights to many software packages.

Therefore, there is a definite need for India not only to derive benefits from the present software boom and demands, but also to prepare itself for the higher end of the market.

India should dream of becoming a software business bidder in a decade.

What is the nature of this higher end software? Here we may quote from the Report of the National Critical Technologies Panel, USA in March 1991.Software is the basic of countless applications in information handling, manufacturing, communications, health care, defence, and in research and development . . . Increasingly,the development 132.

of advanced software is an important limiting factor in the introduction and reliability of new military and commercial system. Software requirements, . . . expand at a dramatic pace as automated systems proliferate and increase in sophistication. Despite these growing demands, the generation of advanced software programmes remains largely a painstaking, labourintensive market. As a result, the ability of US industry to provide high quality, reliable software is in jeopardy . . .

In 1990, a 'minor' programming flaw resulted in a ninehour shutdown of the major US longdistance telephone network . . . Advanced software therefore poses a paradox: a fundamental source of technological progress, it is also going to be a growing source of technological vulnerability. It is this labourintensive phase in software which has created an immense opportunity for India. But advanced economies would not like to live with a vulnerable prosperity the US report quoted above describes many efforts required as well as those under way to resolve these problems. 'The essence of software is in its design. . . software requires no extensive fabrication or a.s.sembly. . . However, it is frequently difficult for the programmes to antic.i.p.ate all of the circ.u.mstances that may arise when the programmes is executed'. Innovative concepts being developed are softwarebased design tools as well as new management concepts for software design development.

The report concludes that these new approaches 'have strong potential to transform software development from labourintensive craft to more highly automated production process. With such advances, the writing of the software can give way to the manufacturing of software.' Thus, one can see that not only has the face of manufacturing physical products changed beyond recognition, but the computer software which has made this revolution possible is itself in the process of radical revolution.

TECHNOLOGY VISION FOR SOFTWARE.

India should start making a concerted effort to capture a share of the market in the newly emerging processes of reliable software for manufacturing, healthcare and other applications. We have certain innate strengths: CAD/CAM packages developed by the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA), and required for the LCA (Light Combat Aircraft) project have found applications in major civilian markets and are now being 133.