The Gamble_ General Petraeus and the American Military Adventure in Iraq Part 18

206 "those terrorist elements": The United Iraqi Alliance's statement was quoted in the The United Iraqi Alliance's statement was quoted in the Was.h.i.+ngton Post, Was.h.i.+ngton Post, 3 October 2007. 3 October 2007.

206 "a coalition of gangsters, tribal leaders and opportunists": Professor Porter's characterization was posted on the "Kings of War" blog, 16 July 2008. Professor Porter's characterization was posted on the "Kings of War" blog, 16 July 2008.

207 "If Jack Bauer doesn't negotiate with terrorists": Spec. Horton posed this question on his blog, "Army of Dude," 24 July 2007. Spec. Horton posed this question on his blog, "Army of Dude," 24 July 2007.

207 "We're going after al Qaeda": Lt. Col. Kuehl recounted this statement by an Iraqi fighter in the Lt. Col. Kuehl recounted this statement by an Iraqi fighter in the Was.h.i.+ngton Post, Was.h.i.+ngton Post, 9 June 2007. 9 June 2007.

207 "These guys looked like a military unit": Capt. Wilbraham's comment is in the same Post article cited above. Capt. Wilbraham's comment is in the same Post article cited above.

209 "Iraq obeys only force": Col. al-Zobaie's a.s.sertions were quoted in the Col. al-Zobaie's a.s.sertions were quoted in the Was.h.i.+ngton Post, Was.h.i.+ngton Post, 24 March 2008. 24 March 2008.

210 "There were almost 600 fighters in our sector": The diary entries were quoted in the The diary entries were quoted in the Was.h.i.+ngton Post, Was.h.i.+ngton Post, 10 February 2008. Some additional quotes are from doc.u.ments released the same day by the U.S. military in Iraq under the t.i.tle "Daily Diary of al Qaeda Sector Leader Called Abu Tariq." 10 February 2008. Some additional quotes are from doc.u.ments released the same day by the U.S. military in Iraq under the t.i.tle "Daily Diary of al Qaeda Sector Leader Called Abu Tariq."

210 The insurgent who loved t.i.tanic: t.i.tanic: Most of the information in this section came from interviews conducted by e-mail with Capt. Cook, but it also relies on his written "Patrol Debriefs" and some other material. Most of the information in this section came from interviews conducted by e-mail with Capt. Cook, but it also relies on his written "Patrol Debriefs" and some other material.

213 "You know that your jihad": This and subsequent quotations from Col. Ismael and Sarhan are from a transcript of a recording of their meeting in January 2008. This and subsequent quotations from Col. Ismael and Sarhan are from a transcript of a recording of their meeting in January 2008.

215 "knew where the [arms] caches were": Capt. Galvach was quoted in the Capt. Galvach was quoted in the Was.h.i.+ngton Post, Was.h.i.+ngton Post, 9 August 2007. 9 August 2007.

215 "one more step toward the fragmentation": Malkasian expresses this concern in his article "A Thin Blue Line in the Sand," Malkasian expresses this concern in his article "A Thin Blue Line in the Sand," DemocracyJournal.org, Summer 2007.

216 "embraced auxiliary tribalism": Long's observation is in "The Anbar Awakening," Long's observation is in "The Anbar Awakening," Survival Survival magazine, April 2008. magazine, April 2008.

216 "several ministries are so controlled": The unt.i.tled study, written in September 2007 by the staff of the U.S. emba.s.sy in Baghdad, to my knowledge has never been released. The unt.i.tled study, written in September 2007 by the staff of the U.S. emba.s.sy in Baghdad, to my knowledge has never been released.

217 "We did not fail": Col. Gentile's article, "Our troops did not fail in 2006," was carried in the Col. Gentile's article, "Our troops did not fail in 2006," was carried in the International Herald Tribune, International Herald Tribune, 24 January 2008. 24 January 2008.

219 "Just let them drive through": This is quoted in the report of the "Theater Operations Detachment" for the Center for Army Lessons Learned at Fort Leavenworth," 13 January 2008. This is quoted in the report of the "Theater Operations Detachment" for the Center for Army Lessons Learned at Fort Leavenworth," 13 January 2008.

219 "a potential disaster": Capt. Press's comment is in his article "After Action Report: Working with the Awakening in Central Anbar," Capt. Press's comment is in his article "After Action Report: Working with the Awakening in Central Anbar," CTC Sentinel, CTC Sentinel, September 2008, published by the Combating Terrorism Center, U.S. Military Academy, West Point, N.Y. September 2008, published by the Combating Terrorism Center, U.S. Military Academy, West Point, N.Y.

224 "The tribal strategy": Long's comments are in "The Anbar Awakening," Long's comments are in "The Anbar Awakening," Survival Survival magazine, April 2008. magazine, April 2008.

225 "fragmenting at a remarkable rate": Professor Lynch made this comment on his website, Professor Lynch made this comment on his website, AbuAardvaark.typepad.com.

Chapter 8: The Domestic Opposition Collapses.

232 Barbero, who had been thinking about the Middle East: Barbero's monograph, t.i.tled "Iran-Iraq War of Exhaustion: The result of the paradoxical trinity," was published by the School of Advanced Military Studies, Fort Leavenworth, 15 May 1989. Barbero's monograph, t.i.tled "Iran-Iraq War of Exhaustion: The result of the paradoxical trinity," was published by the School of Advanced Military Studies, Fort Leavenworth, 15 May 1989.

240 "By the end of 2007, less sophisticated forms of IEDs": The report by Catherine Dale of the Congressional Research Service is "Operation Iraqi Freedom: Strategies, Approaches, Results, and Issues for Congress," 22 February 2008. The report by Catherine Dale of the Congressional Research Service is "Operation Iraqi Freedom: Strategies, Approaches, Results, and Issues for Congress," 22 February 2008.

241 "The surge hammered us at first": The soldier's quote, subsequent quotes from other soldiers, and the data here are all from "Mental Health Advisory Team (MHAT) V/Operation Iraqi Freedom 06-08: Iraq/Operation Enduring Freedom 8: Afghanistan," 14 February 2008, Office of the Surgon, Multi-National Force-Iraq, and Office of the Command Surgeon-[deleted], and Office of the Surgeon General, United States Army Medical Command. The soldier's quote, subsequent quotes from other soldiers, and the data here are all from "Mental Health Advisory Team (MHAT) V/Operation Iraqi Freedom 06-08: Iraq/Operation Enduring Freedom 8: Afghanistan," 14 February 2008, Office of the Surgon, Multi-National Force-Iraq, and Office of the Command Surgeon-[deleted], and Office of the Surgeon General, United States Army Medical Command.

242 "the systematic misuse of official inst.i.tutions": The study by the International Crisis Group is "Where Is Iraq Heading? Lessons from Basra," 25 June 2007. The study by the International Crisis Group is "Where Is Iraq Heading? Lessons from Basra," 25 June 2007.

244 "the handwriting is on the wall": Senator McConnell's comment appeared in the Senator McConnell's comment appeared in the Was.h.i.+ngton Post, Was.h.i.+ngton Post, 27 May 2007. 27 May 2007.

244 "By the time we get to September": Representative Boehner's prediction was made on Representative Boehner's prediction was made on Fox News Sunday, Fox News Sunday, 6 May 2007, and quoted the following day in the 6 May 2007, and quoted the following day in the Was.h.i.+ngton Post. Was.h.i.+ngton Post.

245 "Many of us had hoped this summer": This is from Gen. Petraeus's letter to the troops, issued 7 September 2007. This is from Gen. Petraeus's letter to the troops, issued 7 September 2007.

249 Between June and December: The data in this paragraph are from a briefing I attended at Camp Liberty, Iraq, on 31 January 2008, and from accompanying slides t.i.tled "MND-B Operations & Intelligence Briefing." The data in this paragraph are from a briefing I attended at Camp Liberty, Iraq, on 31 January 2008, and from accompanying slides t.i.tled "MND-B Operations & Intelligence Briefing."

254 The best evidence for that new hands-off att.i.tude: The data on television news coverage of the war in this paragraph appear in "Iraq war disappears as TV story," by David Bauder, the The data on television news coverage of the war in this paragraph appear in "Iraq war disappears as TV story," by David Bauder, the Miami Herald, Miami Herald, 17 March 2008. 17 March 2008.

254 "It seems like a bad dream": George's comment was quoted in the George's comment was quoted in the American Journalism Review, American Journalism Review, April/May 2008. April/May 2008.

Chapter 9: The Twilight Zone.

259 "progress": Lt. Freeze's comment is from his online memoir, "Notes from Down Range," carried on the Army website Platoon Leader. Lt. Freeze's comment is from his online memoir, "Notes from Down Range," carried on the Army website Platoon Leader.

261 "I don't think there is something": Salih's comment appeared in the Salih's comment appeared in the Was.h.i.+ngton Post, Was.h.i.+ngton Post, 10 August 2007. 10 August 2007.

263 "The longer the Iraqi government": White's comment appeared in the White's comment appeared in the Pocono Record, Pocono Record, 4 May 2008. 4 May 2008.

263 "a good guy": This is quoted in the report of the "Theater Operations Detachment" for the Center for Army Lessons Learned at Fort Leavenworth," 13 January 2008. This is quoted in the report of the "Theater Operations Detachment" for the Center for Army Lessons Learned at Fort Leavenworth," 13 January 2008.

265 "They are like mercenaries": The a.s.sociated Press report was carried by the wire service on 29 June 2008. The a.s.sociated Press report was carried by the wire service on 29 June 2008.

265 "Despite the repeated a.s.surances": Professor Hanna's article ran on the website of World Politics Review, 10 July 2008. Professor Hanna's article ran on the website of World Politics Review, 10 July 2008.

266 "Oh people of Iraq": Guardian, Guardian, 10 November 2007. 10 November 2007.

266 "Many times he had": Capt. Cosper was quoted in the Capt. Cosper was quoted in the Los Angeles Times, Los Angeles Times, 29 June 2008. 29 June 2008.

266 "they've grown into a much more organized": This is from Horton's blog, "Army of Dude," 24 July 2007. This is from Horton's blog, "Army of Dude," 24 July 2007.

267 "deeply troubled": Moore's article ran in the Moore's article ran in the New York Times, New York Times, 23 February 2008. 23 February 2008.

269 "Our mission is to protect": Starr was quoted in the Starr was quoted in the Was.h.i.+ngton Post, Was.h.i.+ngton Post, 20 September 2007. 20 September 2007.

269 "The Iraqis despised them": Degn was quoted in the same Degn was quoted in the same Was.h.i.+ngton Post, Was.h.i.+ngton Post, article above. article above.

270 "It had every indication": Lt. Col. Tarsa's observation is in the Lt. Col. Tarsa's observation is in the Was.h.i.+ngton Post, Was.h.i.+ngton Post, 12 October 2007, as is Capt. Cherry's comment that, "This was uncalled for." 12 October 2007, as is Capt. Cherry's comment that, "This was uncalled for."

Chapter 10: Big Wasta Wasta.

This chapter relies in part on "The Battle for Basra," by Marisa Cochrane, Inst.i.tute for the Study of War, Inst.i.tute for the Study of War, 23 June 2008. 23 June 2008.

273 "You know, we all feel much older": Petraeus said this on CNN, 19 March 2008. Petraeus said this on CNN, 19 March 2008.

274 "brazenly challenging": Barnett's article, in the April 2008 issue of Barnett's article, in the April 2008 issue of Esquire, Esquire, was t.i.tled "The Man Between War and Peace." was t.i.tled "The Man Between War and Peace."

275 "General Odierno has experienced": Herrington was quoted in the Herrington was quoted in the Was.h.i.+ngton Post, Was.h.i.+ngton Post, 16 February 2008. 16 February 2008.

277 "By late 2007, the British position": Cordesman's comment is in his study "Iraqi Force Development 2008," published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Was.h.i.+ngton, D.C. Cordesman's comment is in his study "Iraqi Force Development 2008," published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Was.h.i.+ngton, D.C.

277 "I'm not going to go into details": Marston's comments on the frustration of British officers were made at a symposium on counterinsurgency at the National Press Club, Was.h.i.+ngton, D.C., 22 July 2008. Marston's comments on the frustration of British officers were made at a symposium on counterinsurgency at the National Press Club, Was.h.i.+ngton, D.C., 22 July 2008.

287 "Nothing succeeds with the American public like success": Petraeus's dissertation is t.i.tled "The American military and the lessons of Vietnam: A study of military influence and the use of force in the post-Vietnam era" (Princeton University, 1987). Petraeus's dissertation is t.i.tled "The American military and the lessons of Vietnam: A study of military influence and the use of force in the post-Vietnam era" (Princeton University, 1987).

290 "Iraq is a badge of honor": This quote appeared in the This quote appeared in the Was.h.i.+ngton Post, Was.h.i.+ngton Post, 12 June 2006. 12 June 2006.

Chapter 11: After the Surge.

297 "As Nouri al-Maliki has become more capable": Kahl's comment was made in a press briefing on Iraq given by the Center for New American Security, 13 August 2008. Kahl's comment was made in a press briefing on Iraq given by the Center for New American Security, 13 August 2008.

297 "a totalitarian regime": Barzani's comment appeared in "Kurd-Arab Tensions May Threaten Iraq Calm," Reuters, 13 November 2008. Barzani's comment appeared in "Kurd-Arab Tensions May Threaten Iraq Calm," Reuters, 13 November 2008.

297 "the land the surge forgot": This is the t.i.tle of a report by Michael Knights issued by the Was.h.i.+ngton Inst.i.tute for Near East Policy, 30 October 2008. This is the t.i.tle of a report by Michael Knights issued by the Was.h.i.+ngton Inst.i.tute for Near East Policy, 30 October 2008.

297 "the war waiting": McCaffrey's a.s.sertion is in an After Action Report on his visit to Iraq and Kuwait in October and November 2008. McCaffrey's a.s.sertion is in an After Action Report on his visit to Iraq and Kuwait in October and November 2008.

297 provoking the Kurds' Barzani to issue an ultimatum: In an interview with In an interview with Ashard Alawsat, Ashard Alawsat, available at available at http://www.asharq-e.com, 3 September 2008, Barzani stated that "never, we will not relinquish Kirkuk whatever the circ.u.mstances are."

297 "The Iraqi army's campaign in Diyala": Hilterman's a.n.a.lysis appeared on the website Abu Aardvark under the t.i.tle "Kurds See the Future and Don't Like It," 1 September 2008. Hilterman's a.n.a.lysis appeared on the website Abu Aardvark under the t.i.tle "Kurds See the Future and Don't Like It," 1 September 2008.

298 "The surge may have bought transitory successes": Simon's a.n.a.lysis is in "The Price of the Surge: How U.S. Strategy Is Hastening Iraq's Demise," Simon's a.n.a.lysis is in "The Price of the Surge: How U.S. Strategy Is Hastening Iraq's Demise," Foreign Affairs, Foreign Affairs, May/June 2008. May/June 2008.

299 "rubber-stamping": Obama made his remarks to Terry Moran of ABC's Obama made his remarks to Terry Moran of ABC's Nightline, Nightline, 21 July 2008. 21 July 2008.

304 Some 50,000 soldiers now have prescriptions: This was reported by Gregg Zoroya in This was reported by Gregg Zoroya in USA Today, USA Today, 21 October 2008, as was the information about the 509th Engineer Company. 21 October 2008, as was the information about the 509th Engineer Company.

304 The quality of recruits: The information in this paragraph about recruiting problems is from an article by Josh White in the The information in this paragraph about recruiting problems is from an article by Josh White in the Was.h.i.+ngton Post, Was.h.i.+ngton Post, 23 January 2008. 23 January 2008.

305 The military also has been admitting more recruits with criminal records: This and the other data in this paragraph about conduct waivers are from an article by Ann Scott Tyson that ran in the This and the other data in this paragraph about conduct waivers are from an article by Ann Scott Tyson that ran in the Was.h.i.+ngton Post, Was.h.i.+ngton Post, 22 April 2008. 22 April 2008.

305 "incredible stress": This and the other statements by Gen. Cody appeared in an article by Tyson in the This and the other statements by Gen. Cody appeared in an article by Tyson in the Was.h.i.+ngton Post, Was.h.i.+ngton Post, 2 April 2008. 2 April 2008.

Chapter 12: Obama's War.

307 "We're not looking at doing things fast": Col. Johnson's comment was made during a Pentagon roundtable with defense bloggers, 12 August 2008. Col. Johnson's comment was made during a Pentagon roundtable with defense bloggers, 12 August 2008.

307 "The Vietnam War had drawn to a close when I was fairly young": Sen. Obama made this observation on the CNN television show Sen. Obama made this observation on the CNN television show Fareed Zakaria GPS, Fareed Zakaria GPS, 13 July 2008. During that same interview he also made the comments about not abandoning Iraq that are quoted at the end of this paragraph. 13 July 2008. During that same interview he also made the comments about not abandoning Iraq that are quoted at the end of this paragraph.

309 "My 16-month time line, if you examine everything I've said": Obama's statement was reported widely, including in the Obama's statement was reported widely, including in the Was.h.i.+ngton Post, Was.h.i.+ngton Post, 4 July 2008. 4 July 2008.

310 "a unified democratic country or to a fractured sectarian one": Janabi's a.n.a.lysis, "The Importance of Iraq's Provincial Elections," was published by the Was.h.i.+ngton Inst.i.tute for Near East Policy on 26 September 2008. Janabi's a.n.a.lysis, "The Importance of Iraq's Provincial Elections," was published by the Was.h.i.+ngton Inst.i.tute for Near East Policy on 26 September 2008.

311 "One particularly ominous aspect of Anbari politics": Lt. Cdr. Lindsay's observation in his essay "Does the 'Surge' Explain Iraq's Improved Security?," carried in the MIT Center for International Studies' "Audit of the Conventional Wisdom," September 2008. Lt. Cdr. Lindsay's observation in his essay "Does the 'Surge' Explain Iraq's Improved Security?," carried in the MIT Center for International Studies' "Audit of the Conventional Wisdom," September 2008.

Epilogue: The Long War 314 On the phrase Wolfowitz used, see for example my book see for example my book Fiasco, Fiasco, p. 98, where he is quoted as saying, "it is hard to conceive that it would take more forces to provide stability in post-Saddam Iraq than it would take to conduct the war itself and to secure the surrender of Saddam's security forces and his army-hard to imagine." p. 98, where he is quoted as saying, "it is hard to conceive that it would take more forces to provide stability in post-Saddam Iraq than it would take to conduct the war itself and to secure the surrender of Saddam's security forces and his army-hard to imagine."

314 See, for example, Klein's discussion of the failures of imagination by both sides in the 1973 downing of a Libyan airliner by Israeli fighter jets, in chapter 5 of of the failures of imagination by both sides in the 1973 downing of a Libyan airliner by Israeli fighter jets, in chapter 5 of Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions (Boston: MIT Press, 2001). (Boston: MIT Press, 2001).

315 "History provides countless warnings": Cordesman's observation in his essay "Grand Strategy and Iraq's Uncertain Future," published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 31 October 2008. Cordesman's observation in his essay "Grand Strategy and Iraq's Uncertain Future," published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 31 October 2008.

315 "there has never been a successful counterinsurgency that took less than 10 years": Kilcullen said this on the Kilcullen said this on the Charlie Rose Charlie Rose television show, 5 October 2007. television show, 5 October 2007.

316 "This mission will be long": Biddle's estimate is in his article "Patient Stabilized?," Biddle's estimate is in his article "Patient Stabilized?," National Interest, National Interest, March-April 2008. March-April 2008.

317 "only a decades-long American occupation": Col. Gentile's prediction is in "A (Slightly) Better War: A Narrative and Its Defects," Col. Gentile's prediction is in "A (Slightly) Better War: A Narrative and Its Defects," World Affairs, World Affairs, Summer 2008. Summer 2008.

317 "power sharing is always a prelude to violence": McCreary's a.n.a.lysis appeared in his McCreary's a.n.a.lysis appeared in his Night.w.a.tch Night.w.a.tch e-mail report of 11 September 2008. e-mail report of 11 September 2008.

318 "If the Americans leave": Staff Sgt. Benavides was quoted in an article by Sam Dagher in the Staff Sgt. Benavides was quoted in an article by Sam Dagher in the Christian Science Monitor, Christian Science Monitor, 3 July 2008. 3 July 2008.

318 "a colossus with feet of clay": Visser's description is in his essay "The Sadrists of Basra and the Far South of Iraq," published by the Norwegian Inst.i.tute of International Affairs, May 2008. Visser's description is in his essay "The Sadrists of Basra and the Far South of Iraq," published by the Norwegian Inst.i.tute of International Affairs, May 2008.

319 "the Sadrists are Tehran's historical main enemy": Visser noted this in "The Sadrists, the Bush Administration's Narrative on Iraq, and the Maysan Operations," posted on Visser noted this in "The Sadrists, the Bush Administration's Narrative on Iraq, and the Maysan Operations," posted on www.historiae.orgon 3 July 2008. 3 July 2008.

320 "it is our friends who will come to power": Khatami said this to Nasr, who included it in a draft of a study on "The Implications of Military Confrontation with Iran" and permitted me to quote it here. Khatami said this to Nasr, who included it in a draft of a study on "The Implications of Military Confrontation with Iran" and permitted me to quote it here.

322 "The Iraqi army is a predominantly s.h.i.+a inst.i.tution": This is from the same "Operational Leaders.h.i.+p Experiences" interview with Sgt. Maj. Clemens that is quoted in Chapter 6. This is from the same "Operational Leaders.h.i.+p Experiences" interview with Sgt. Maj. Clemens that is quoted in Chapter 6.

323 "watching The Sopranos The Sopranos or watching or watching The G.o.dfather The G.o.dfather": This is from the "Operational Leaders.h.i.+p Experiences" interview with Maj. Voorhies cited in Chapter 2. This is from the "Operational Leaders.h.i.+p Experiences" interview with Maj. Voorhies cited in Chapter 2.

323 "they wanted to go back to the old way underneath Saddam": Maj. Arnold stated this in his official "Operational Leaders.h.i.+p Experiences" interview, Combat Studies Inst.i.tute, Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, 16 January 2008. Maj. Arnold stated this in his official "Operational Leaders.h.i.+p Experiences" interview, Combat Studies Inst.i.tute, Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, 16 January 2008.