India 2020 Part 6

Sector, specialty chemicals and national products. In health care, the technological inputs which have been projected require strengths in advanced materials, sensors and electronics. The linkages between disciplines and sectors are so intimate that we can depict them as interconnected boxes. Even national security, economic and food securities often appear as one. The final goal is clear: the prosperity and continued health and well being of all our people.

After the release After the release of these doc.u.ments, the authors besides many others have traveled extensively and presented their findings, partly with a view to disseminate the

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conclusions, but more to network people for action. The responses at the state, local, inst.i.tutional and individual levels are overwhelming. We believe that there are many ignited minds in different parts of India, in different age groups. The Technology Vision will generate multimissions and each mission in turn hundreds of projects. This ambience will make the nation achieve the status of a developed nation. The vision, we believe therefore, can be realized: the vision of a developed India ,which can see Indian products, services and technologies emerge as world cla.s.s! Let us now examine the results presented in the Technology Vision doc.u.ments.

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Chapter 4.

Food, Agriculture and processing If the farmer's hands slacken even the ascetic's state will fail.

Thirukkural,104:6 About 4oper cent of our people live below the poverty line today.

They face problems of daytooday existence, with not enough money to buy simple food items, often not even for the next meal. Still, the situation is much better than what it was at many periods before independence and even during the 1960s. Today's teenagers would not know about the near famine conditions that prevailed in certain regions of the country before independence and even after, and particularly about our dependence on American wheat in the sixties.

The crisis and Indian food security Prof S.K. Sinha, an eminent Indian agricultural scientist who led the food and agriculture panel of the Technology Vision is often fond of quoting the following: It is also important to recall the experience of C. Subramaniam, the then Union minister of agriculture during the critical years of 196566 and 196667. He has stated that 'we had to import 10 million tones and 11 million tones during these two yearsthat was a danger signal, you can't be depending upon imported foodgrains at that level, particularly when it came from 12000 miles away. During the second year of that critical period of drought, President Johnson, because of certain policies he had adopted, we reached a stage where there were stocks for only two weeks and there was nothing in transit in the pipeline'. *

This crisis gave the country's leaders.h.i.+p an opportunity to resolve to become self sufficient in food grains. This period also coincided with a breakthrough in technology at international centers for improvement of rice and wheat strains. India took advantage of these technologies, experimented with them, and launched largescale agricultural extension services, instead of viewing these technologies merely as research curiosities.

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Within three years the production of wheat doubled. This led to food grain self sufficiency in the 1970s when we developed rice and wheat varieties acceptable to our people.

Later when two of the worst droughts of the century occurred in 1979 and 1987, the world did not take note of them because no food aid was asked for. The country now has a buffer stock of about 35 million tones of food grains. The 1990s have seen a certain degree of diversification of agriculture and exports of various agricultural products including wheat and rice. There is also a growth in the agriculturebased processing industry.

Future needs and capabilities So can we rest on our oars, comfortable in the belief that there are no more problems on the food front? Will there be no possibility of a repeat of the humiliation and stress the country and our people had to go through from 1965 to 1967?

We may look at table 4.1 below, which is a prediction.

TABLE 4.1.

Projected Grain Imports in 2000 and 2010 Countries Million Tones 2000 2010.

South Asia 9.2 12.8.

East Asia 31.4 39.0 India 6.9 14.1.

Pakistan 2.1 4.5 Indonesia 5.7 7.6 China 11.3 21.6 Source: TIFAC, Food and Agriculture: Technology Vision 2020

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According to table 4.1, India may have to import about 14 million tones of food grains by 2010 and then imports will grow at the rate of 2 per cent every year! Can we draw comfort from the fact that Pakistan will have to import 4.5 million tones in 2010 and China 21.6 million tones? Along with many others who have studied these issues in depth and thought about possible solutions, we believe that we need not accept these conclusions at all since India has tremendous potential for increasing production. India either already has the necessary technologies or can develop them easily. Our people and our farmers are exceptionally entrepreneurial, and have proved it again and again.

But we can belie the gloomy predictions only when we resolve to work hard with a longterm vision. We cannot afford to believe that we are far enough ahead in the race to go to sleep like the hare which lost to a tortoise.

Food demand and the Indian people Let us pause for a moment and see how some of the doomsday predictions about availability of food grains in India or its import arise. Some of the reasons are: (a) A growing population. India's population is projected at 1.3 billion by the year 2020.

(b) Economic growth is another factor. As the economy grows, people earn more and consumption rises. It will be a happy day when our poor have enough to eat.

(c) In addition, there is a definite change in lifestyle. There is a clear trend towards consumption of meat products with the increase in income.

Consumption of non vegetarian food tends to increase to the consumption of cereals as well.

Based on many such factors and variables, several studies indicate the demand of food grains in the year 2000 to range from as low as 191 million tones to as high as 286 million tones! A scenario for domestic demand for food grains for different rates of economic growth is given in table 4.2.

Since we need at least a 7 per cent growth rate to reach developed country status, it is safe to a.s.sume a demand of 340 million tones of food grains by 2020. All these projected increases in demand place additional pressure on Indian agriculture. The optimum allocation of land and other resources for various

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crops will itself pose a challenge. Can we declare, consume less milk or oil or eat less vegetables? These are the new challenges before us in a nottoodistant future.

Challenges to Indian agriculture Thus the growing demand for food grains, vegetables, fruits, milk, poultry and meat as well as cash crops is going to present greater and newer challenges to agriculture. Let us not forget that our existing food security has been mainly brought about by the increase in irrigated agriculture and the introduction of TABLE 4.2 63.

Projected Household Demand for Food in India at 7 per cent Income Growth Commodity Annual household demand (million metric tones) 1991 1995.

2000 2010.

2020.

Food grains 168.3 185.1 208.6 266.4 343.0.

Milk 48.8 62.0 83.8 153.1.

271.0.

Edible oil 4.3 5.1 6.3 9.4

13.0.

Vegetables 56.0 65.7 80.0 117.2.

168.0.

Fruits 12.5 16.1 22.2 42.9

81.0.

Meat, fish & eggs 3.4 4.4 6.2.

12.7.

27.0.

Sugar 9.6 10.9 12.8 17.3

22.0.

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Source: TIFAC.

: Food and Agriculture: Technology Vision 2020 highyielding varieties of crops. Current stability in production is through wheat, largely a winter crop. However, the rain fed areas, which account for 70 per cent of the net cultivated areas of the country, have not benefited from modern developments in agriculture. Of this 70 per cent, about 30 per cent area is under dry land agriculture where annual rainfall is up to 400 mm.

The problems in areas with rain fed agriculture need to be understood. The lesser the rain in an area, the greater the trouble for the farmers and villagers there. I recall my frequent visits to suratgarh, Rajas than, in the late 1960's and 70's, in connection with certain important projects, when sounding rockets of the Indian s.p.a.ce Research Organization (ISRO) were being tested. I remember the pathetic situation been which then prevailed. During many reasons, it was rare to find even of gra.s.s. Now when i visit some areas in Rajas than for other programmers, I am struck by the change brought about by the irrigation waters of the Indira Gandhi Ca.n.a.l. The change in the quality of the people's lives is something that gives me immense satisfaction. I envisage an Indian with many such ca.n.a.lsbig and smallconnecting different river system and water bodies. I would like to see an India whose watersheds and rainwater are managed to benefit the poor people and to boost our agriculture.

What is to be done with the rain fed regions till then? Leave them to the centuries old toil of their farmers? Or neglect them with hope that we may be able to make a breakthrough in newer technologies so that we can achieve whatever we want from the 30 per cent irrigated, relatively affluent agricultural zones? There have been several successful small experiments in different parts of both the rain fed and dry land areas of our country. For example, there has been considerable success in some pockets of Maharastra in conserving water, planting of trees, developing villagelevel grazing lands and regulating water use by the community. This has helped in raising suitable crops and livestock and in creating a viable market system. If we only recall how the Green Revolution took place: several farmers from the irrigated regions of India were given an opportunity to visit other parts of the world. Should we not as a country extend similar opportunities to the farmers in the rain fed and dry land regions of our country at least to visit other places in our country (and if possible to go abroad too) to observe for

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themselves the success of farmers there who have overcome similar conditions to increase productivity.

Our people and farmers are all integrated into one huge market. All those concerned need to be educated about another important scientific fact, through observation, discussion and ma.s.s contacts: that is, regarding agroecological considerations.

Accordingly, the dry lands of central India cannot have high productivity rates of rice and wheat (which are the major food grains relished by Indians). Therefore, agriculture in the central Indian dry lands can be focused on pulses, oilseeds, vegetables, fruits and livestock. Wheat and rice can be concentrated in more suitable regions. Each state should concentrate on agricultural products most suited to its agroclimatic conditions, as it cannot hope to be selfsufficient in all the essential commodities. In addition, special attention should be given to the agriculture in the eastern region of India, especially to increase productivity. Large parts of eastern India, through blessed by excellent agro climatic and water resources, have a very low productivity. This situation has to change if India aims at food security and economic prosperity.

There is a need for multip.r.o.nged action. Merely having better seeds or better irrigation will not suffice. The tasks involved today are much more complex than the were during the Green Revolution.

Environmental problems and international pressures In the coming years we cannot address our agricultural problems in isolation. The General Agreement on trade and tariffs (GATT) and the obligations to the World Trade Organization (WTO) have implications for the future course of agricultural research and development and other initiatives we may take. These relate to giving market access to other countries in selling their products in India. This will place a demand on quality and efficiency in our own agricultural operations. Limits will be also placed on how much domestic support we can give to our agriculture.

Restrictions in terms of sanitary and photosanitary measures both for import and export of agricultural commodities will be imposed. This means there will be demands that residues of pesticides and chemicals be reduced to the internationally acceptable standards. Suppose we say that we will adopt these standards only for exports and that for our own domestic markets we may relax these conditions. Then our own people, starting