India 2020 Part 13

Technologies and employment 145.

We remember the amount of paper work we had to do to get government permission for purchase of computers by the Indian s.p.a.ce Research Organisation (ISRO).

For procuring each computer, there was a long series of notes, meetings, questions and answers!

The country has come a long way since then. In fact, the opening up of the computer front since the mid80s has resulted in India's onebilliondollar software exports today. Computers have increased efficiency and service, the computerization of railway ticketing being a notable example. There is of course specific displacement of workers in the real or virtual sense for example, a type of clerical staff may not be further recruited because computerization has helped streamline the paperwork. The existing workface thus needs to be trained in new skills.

So far the transition has been relatively smooth, but to sustain this process it is essential for the government, the organized sector, and even trade and labour unions to antic.i.p.ate such changes and prepare our workface. We have the success story of j.a.pan before us as an example.

In the coming years, requirements for rapid changes in the skills of a large number of people in periods of say three to five years may become a continuous feature when newer technologies are introduced into the economy. Such rapid changes will occur in all sectors, underlining how the agriculture, manufacturing and service sectors are interwined. In the agriculture sector there will be better optimization of input resources like seeds, soil conditioning, fertilizermicronutrient mixes, pesticides and so on, as well as changes in the overall agriculture management. The agriculture sector may also use information technology much more intensely than it does now, be it in the use of remote sensing through satellites for regular monitoring of crops and soil conditions or water resources,or for better weather forecasts through satellites and groundborne systems, or in the use of modern communications to be in closer touch with old or new markets. Water quality may be monitored more carefully in the future whether for human or animal consumption. Raped improvements in advanced sensors would make it possible to have such sensing systems at affordable prices in many of our aicultural sectors.

In the industrial and manufacturing sector, of course, the use of senors, and modern electronics and information technology will be a continual feature requiring 146.

raped reorientation of the skills of not only the workforce but also the entire management including board level operations.

Installation of IT systems for all these sectors, training persons at all levels and maintaining and improving their skills would be a major service industry.

India and the services sector The agricultural sector in India accounts for 32.7 percent of GDP and has an annual rate of increase of about 3.5 percent. The secondary sector consists of manufacturing, power, etc.,and forms 25.8 per cent or the GDP with a growth rate of 5.9 per cent . Services like trade, storage, transport, communication and finance are the traditional components of the tertiary or service sector. Among the newer service that have emerged are advertising, marketing management, and various consultancies. The services sector provides essential inputs to the other two sectors and so they are dependent on the efficient operation of this sector which in India is now about 40 per cent of the GCP. Employment in the services sector covers a large range of occupations involving relatively little investment in capital equipment. There is also a great potential for exporting services.

Some of the sectors considered to be of great value for India in the TIFAC reports are: Financial services Marketing communication services ( i.e. advertising, media, consultancy and infotainment) Marketing logistics, trading and distribution Trade promotion services Human resources development Technical and management consultancy Testing, certification and calibration services Government administration Security services There are also other important activities. To name a few: Repair and maintenance 147.

Tourism and hotels Leisure and sports resorts Cultural activities Old age care services Preventive health care services We shall examine a few sectors to a.s.sess future requirements.

Financial services The financial sector includes a large number of inst.i.tutions such as commercial banks, financial term lending banks, insurance companies, capital markets like the stock exchange, and so on . In the last twenty five years the number of branches of commercial banks increased sevenfold, to about 65000 in 1995. Aggregate deposits of commercial banks have increased by two and a half times in the last six years, to Rs.4500 billion in January 1996.

The gross value added to GCP by insurance services increased at the rate of 7.5 per cent during 198081 and 1993 94, but only 22 per cent of all insurable persons are covered by life insurance. The number of persons covered will increase significantly due to population increase, economic growth and the rise in the magnitude of risks due to rapid urbanization. Currently less than 1 per cent of the population has any Dealings with nonlife insurance business, but the demand on these services is bound to increase as manufacturing, trade and other activities grow. Additionally more and more people will go in for personal accident insurance, medical coverage and other such forms of protection .The business in nonlife insurance even currently is increasing at the rate of 20 per cent per annum and is expected to accelerate to 30 per cent in the next decade.

Despite voluminous growth in the banking and insurance sectors, processing and transactions have been carried out by largely manual means. A national network of banking and the insurance business has to emerge. This lack has adversely affected efficiency and is a major cause of the high rates charged for financial services. The introduction of IT for various operations at the earliest has become a necessity. This means use of computers for near total electronic data management and the use of telecommunications and multimedia data, adopting a total systems approach. Some 148.

modern technologies like Automated Teller Machines (ATM), automatic cheque clearing systems, telephonic banking, credit cards, and electronic fund transfers are being introduce in a small way and will be prevalent in most of the banks in the coming years.

In other financial services, including insurance services, very little computerization has taken place. This lack of IT resources has resulted in poor services to customers and inadequate controls leading to delinquency in loans .In capital markets, both primary and secondary, only low levels of technology are in use .In primary markets the lack of computerization and communication facilities results in long delays in the financial of subscription of new issues. The Bombay and National Stock Exchange have recently adopted screen based trading.

At the lower end of banking, that is rural banking, many of these technologies may not have relevance except for the wealthy, at least for a decade or more .The problem in the bulk of our village communities is to generate money and make it available to workers, not merely for their subsistence but to carry out some economic activities of their own with small investments. Financial or lending systems for such poor rural folk could be patterned on the 'grameen bank systems' successfully operated in Bangladesh.

Rural telephone access either through RAX (Rural Exchange) systems developed by C DoT or through wireless in the loop systems will be useful in extending the range of operation.

Marketing communication services Marketing communication which comprises services such as advertising, market research and entertainment, depends primarily on the stage of economic development and the nature of the target groups .The Indian economy has been growing at an average rate of 5 per cent from 198080 resulting in a middle cla.s.s population of 200250 million. Though currently 70 per cent of the population is rural, by the year 2020 this figure should decline to 55 per cent the literacy rate is expected to rises to 80 per cent. Because of these trends there would be major s.h.i.+fts in marketing communication. The strategy now is to focus on innovation and create new needs.

Market research and market communication have so far been confined to a handful of consumer goods like soaps, cosmetics, toothpastes, beverage, and select food 149.

products.They are now being applied to white goods like television sets, refrigerators, and was.h.i.+ng machines. In rural areas too the purchase of these goods is on the increase.

Marketing of agricultural inputs and appliances is also going up .It is estimated that nearly 50 per cent of the purchase of consumer durables will be in rural India against less than 30 per cent today. Also in the agricultural sector, many private ent.i.ties are likely to enter into the marketing of seeds, fertilizer mixes, pesticides, and a variety of agricultural tools and implements .The demand for India specific domestic appliances like idly mixers and chapattimaking appliances or packed foods and sweets is likely to increase and these will be sold at compet.i.tive prices. Foreign products may soon be competing with Indian goods just as our goods will be exported to a number of countries.

Demand for quality and standards The sale of an increased volume of product would also create a trend of market segmentation for high quality products. People would demand newer features, like greater user friendliness or greater portability or better aesthetics or looks.

There are also other demands, which are of a technical nature. They are: greater reliability, tending towards zero repair over the products ' life time, or lower energy consumption, or lesser noise or radiation emission, or lower levels of environment pollution, etc. These demand new standards of performance and greater technological inputs. Companies themselves would introduce improved features to maintain a companies edge. In India too, such trends will be on the increase and local business and industries will have to learn to adjust to them. Marketing communication by foreign companies even through satellite based TV and other information services will also affect India consumer preference even in rural India. Presently, India industries or markets or consumer follow trends which are often a decade or more old in the developed world. This has to change.

Value systems in marketing communication A question that arises is regarding the place of value system in marketing communication. Is it necessary to pursue this 'one upmans.h.i.+p', characteristic of Necessary? Can we not rid ourselves of the advertis.e.m.e.nt culture? If the social or commercial purpose of advertis.e.m.e.nt is only to provide technical and commercial 150.

information to the people, why not give information freely on demand or display it in suitable public places in an inexpensive manner, as the advertis.e.m.e.nt costs are relay finally borne by the consumer himself.

On the face of it, many of these ideas are wonderful. But in real life the behavior pattern of people are very complex and there are many individual variations. Not everybody has the patience to thumb through a directory to search out different products .Therefore , advertising becomes a useful source of information . Rural and urban dwellers, poor and rich , literate and illiterate , all require a flow of information in various forms to know ,to choose and to feel that they are not being left behind . Besides they help people save time which would be used in searching out information . Regarding the contents and the ethics of these message, most healthy societies learn how to come to a dynamic equilibrium.

It is very interesting to note that as the physical production in the agriculture and manufacturing sector expands, the demands on marketing communication grow, thus providing people additional employment opportunities. This is an area which can be given a thrust.

The future scenario of marketing communication Among the newer technologies which are likely to enter this area are: composing multi addition portable IT technologies automatic language translation hand held terminals satellite digital audio broadcasting three dimensional workstations exemption for access control system for viewer censoring stereo music audio and interactive random data graphical user interface .

It is essential that Indian industries work in advance to acquire or develop technologies in these areas so that they can be market leaders in India and possibly export to other countries as well . If they do not take action now, it is likely that those in need of providing such services will import products. The business volumes in many of these areas range from a few tens of crores to several thousand crores per year .Table 8.1 provides a brief picture.

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TABLE 8.1.

Projected Volume of Communication Business 2020 (.

Annual turnover Rs. crores) 1995 Activity 2020 Marketing services 60 Market research 8001000 3500 Advertising 1800020000 Ma.s.s media: 1500 press (Circulation /sale) 65007000 1500 TV (Software) 70008000 200 Cable operations 80001000.

(Annual turnover Rs. Crores) Entertainment media: 1000 Cinema (production & 40005000 collections) 300 Music 25003000.

35 Multimedia 10001200 152.

35000 Telecom Telephone &Data 600000 700000.

Notes: ( All estimates are at 1).

1995.

prices.

( ) Cinema includes production meant for Cable and TV .

2.

There is some overlap between media and entertainment .

TIFAC.

technology vision 2020 :.

(Source: Services ) Marketing logistics, trading and distribution Having communicated information about products and goods, it is necessary to reach them to the consumer. Trading has been the important services activity that fulfilled this need .

Services like wholesale and retail trade, warehousing, transportation and distribution which link producers /manufacturers with the consumers are the components of marketing logistics. These services accounted for 21.5 per cent of GDP in 199394.

Marketing logistics are required for three broad categories , namely agro based food products, major materials and intermediate goods like coal, steel, cement, etc. and consumer goods like durables, textiles, so on.

The trading and distribution of the above categories is done by traditional methods of commissioning wholesale distributors at selected centers and a large number of retailers.

Due to increase in GDP, a large volume of product changes are expected within a decade in trade and marketing logistics.

Future scenario in trading Some f the traditional outlets in village and small towns are one stop shops. Though options may be limited, they can meet a range of requirements. In most of the advance countries this feature has taken the shape of big retail channels and shopping malls, which are now catching on, in the bigger Indian cities. By going to one place, one can get almost any item of domestic consumption. As the production of goods and their consumption grows, which is definitely envisioned for our country , these shopping 153.

malls and big retail stores will be in position . Let our technologist and industrialists dream and think of business opportunities in equipping such big malls and maintaining them. There is no reason why many of these accessories and fitting cannot be made in India. We emphasize this because at present several items for our five star hotels are imported since those of comparable quality are not available in the country .It is essential that a country that can tame atomic energy or produce complex metallurgical product, should be able to make relatively simpler products using Indian knowhow and designs.

Coming to packing, wherever possible we can avoid the older route of plastics, though they are necessary for some products. Bio degradable tapioca linked paper packages have been developed in our country. Why not try many such innovations instead of adopting mere imitations of other advanced countries? Another important technological input in marketing logistics, trading and distribution is going to be satellite communication and computer networks. We often forget we are a vast country of about 3.2 million sq. km, where goods move by trucks or railway. A fast growing, high volume economy cannot sustain its distribution channels without a first rate computer network and satellite communication channels. Why satellite? Computer network are possible even with fibres. But a truck, goods train or a s.h.i.+p each requires different links.

Mobile communication can be established. Satellite navigational System helps in pinpointing the position as well. Mobility of businesspersons and traders is also crucial.

The way they have taken to cellular or mobile phones is remarkable. Once we provide good computer networks as well as regular and mobilecommunications,we ourselves will be surprised by the ingenious use people can put them to. The barrier between rural and urban areas will be broken by the service sector in communications.

Future scenario in marketing logistics Greater speed in transportation will be a key demand, as alsothe demand for larger loads having greater reach. Specializedcontainers, often with controlled atmospheric conditions (forcontrol,etc.)will be required. In addition there will arise demand for a single container that can be sent by air, road , rail or s.h.i.+p. This is called capabilityfor multimodal transportation. Internationally many such standardized containers are used. It will be advantageous if Indian industries begin acquiring such a capability now and adapt it to 154.

our conditions. There will be a great demand for such containers in about five to ten years.

With larger cargoes, requirements for better cargo handilingfacilities, modernized packaging systems and loading and unloading systems will increase. A natural requirement would then be for large modern warehouse. Once these are built and since there will be pressure at the time of delivery, the connectivity between farms, factories, G.o.downs, warehouse, head offices, field offices supermarkets and and other retail outlets will be crucial. These connectivities will be by road, rail or waterways as well as through data/ voice communication.

An important point needs to be emphasized here which appilies to all areas, and particularly to this area of services. Simple training with visuals and in the workers'

languages is what is required to ensure that people perform well. If we do not invest in our workforce and treat them as unskilled labour which can be drawn on merely for manual labor, their performance will also be similar. There is great scope for educating people for maximize efficient use of resources. For instance, 5percent of fuel used for vehicles can be saved if drivers are given proper training in Correct and energyefficient driving habits: don't press the accelerator unnecessarily, avoid breaking suddenly, slow down earlier,etc.but does a normal driver know that these factors are with the thermodynamics of engines and fuel burning? Similarly, if the stove's flame is kept at a level that will prevent it lapping around the sides of the vessel and just be under the pot, though it may take few minutes more to cook food, there will be a considerable saving of precious gas. Such wastage exacts a heavy price on the economy. Marketing communication skills can be deployed very effectively to impart continual training to our workforce and curb such wastage. That will be an excellent service industry itself.

Trade promotion services New global trade arrangements are expected to add US$ 213 274 billion annually to world income. The GATT secretariat projects the largest increase at 60 percent of world trade in the area of textiles and clothing followed by agriculture, forestry and fishery products. The potential gain of Indian exports is estimated at $2.7 billion (the current export is $20 billion). Effective trade promotion services would be required to tap new markets and increase our exports.

155.

Shortterm activities (five years) should include strengthening IT for trade and building necessary infrastructure for meeting customer requirements. Medium/longterm activities(ten to twenty years) should include large global databases, communication links and improved transportation and banking facilities.

Tourism Most people are familiar with the traditional concepts of Tourism: hotels, access to easy transport, special places to visit, starting from the TajMahal, Goa, Kanyak.u.mari, the beautiful NorthEast, coastal India and the islands, the deserts and the Himalayas. But the modernday tourist expects something more and different. He comes here not merely to eat, drink and make merry. Many want to learn more about the people they meet and the places they visit. We can call it 'cultural' or 'knowledge oriented' tourism. There is plenty of scope for meeting such a requirement through the help of information technology. Multipresentations can be made available in most tourist spots on the music, culture, history, biodiversity and other features of that could open by giving foreign tourists glimpses of such information, including local maps, by electronic mail even as they are planning their trips! The possibilities are many it only remains to try them.

Human resources development As must have become selfevident, the services sector is dominated by human needs, comforts and convenience. Naturally, development of human resources becomes an important requirement for having a services sector. We have shown a few examples in earlier sections. They very activity of human resource development and continous skill upgradation in the face of changingtechnologies or preferably in advance preparation of likely changes in technologies and consumption styles is going to be another major component of the services sector.all of us have to unlearen a lot, learn a lot,continue to learn a lot, use new aids in learing, teach others and so on.

As the UN Human Development Report of 1995 makes clear, ma.s.sive investments in human capital and development of managerial and technological skills are needed in developing countries if they are to improve their peoples' living standards. India itself is th ranked very low, at 134 place out of 175 countries, below countries like Malaysia,Thailand and Srilanka. As much as 73 per cent of our population has no proper 156.

sanitation, and 21 per cent lack access to drinking water. The following table sets out the future challenges and Priorities TABLE 8.2.

HRD: Future Challengea and priorities _____________________________________________________.

serial Activity Timeframe no for completion (in years) ______________________________________________________.

1.

Improvement in primary and secondary education quality and competence of teachers 510.

Entrepreneurs.h.i.+p Oriented education 510 Use of multimedia and Other ma.s.s media technologies 1015.

2.

empowerment of women social engineering with widespread social awareness 510 and campaign Technological interventions For improved women's 515 education 3 investment in science and technology Reorientation of R&D Activities more focussed 510 157.

172.

_______________________________________________________.

serial Activity Timeframe no for completion (in years) _______________________________________________________.

Leaders.h.i.+p training and Skills development for Inst.i.tution building for 510 National laboratories and Inst.i.tutions Devising HRD programmes And strategies for national 510 Laboratories and inst.i.tutions

4.

Entrepreneurs.h.i.+p development Development of entrepreneurial 510 Skills and employment Generation by the Government NGOs and financial inst.i.tutions 510 Creation of entrepreneurial att.i.tude And spirit, achievement motivation etc. 510 Improved availability and management of credit facilities 510 5 Human resources development Role of private agencies and NGOs Development of entrepreneurial ` Skills and inst.i.tution building 515 Capabilities of NGOs Improvement of performance by 6 Government agencies and inst.i.tutions HRD programmes related to Bringing in att.i.tudinal and Behavioural changes of 510.

Government personnel 158.

173.

______________________________________________________.

serial Timeframe no activity for completion Infusing professionalism in Government services 510 Development of less manpower And improved mechanization 510 In government services concern for the environment Improved environmental Awareness and education among Common people through ma.s.s Communication technologies And contact programmes 510 ___________________________________________________.

source:TIFAC report Technology vision 2020:services It needs also to be realized that if we are to effectively develop our human resources we must decentralized the HRD function so that selfcorrecting learning systems develop at the local level. Modern technologies including IT help the process very greatly and provide new opportunities.Technical and management consultancy services HRD is itself a knowledge and skill based activity in great demand in the technology society of today. But the complex technologies in operation and the continual demands for them in daytoday life ranging from domestic operations to defence, Require that there are no critical failures. In fact, the objective of most manufacturers and service providers is to provide maintenancefree systems. Earlier, rigorous demands for quality a.s.surance and reliability were restricted mainly to the areas of standards are demanded in several civilian applications. On the one hand, technological progress is reducing the product lifein human bodies. .Nowadays, the highest specifications of quality cycle to a few years.earlier, people were happy with a mean time between failures(MTBF) of a few or several thousand hours.that means any equipment once 159.

delivered or repaired would perform without any major problem for a few or several thousand hours,which was specified as the MTBF.The present day trend is not to have a failure during the entire product life cycle,which may be only a few years because of costant updatiung. Those who buy personal computers in India will know the rate of change of models with substantive performance changes. How does one a.s.sure rigorous these standards? Naturally by incorporating many of the design, technological and management features used in defence or s.p.a.ce systems.

Earlier we used to purchase military standard or s.p.a.ce quality components at specially high prices and call other components for ground equipment as the 'garden variety'. Now the standards and reliability figures of these garden variety components have increased manifold. This is one reason why military procurement in development countries is nowadays sourced from common civilian sources as well because there is an allround increase in reliability and quality. In this way, by spreading the marketbase and their own production volumes, both sectors gain.