Physics of the Future_ How Science Will Shape Human Destiny... Part 2

I had a chance to witness these technologies firsthand when I visited the CAVE (cave automatic virtual environment) at Rowan University in New Jersey for the Science Channel. I entered an empty room, where I was surrounded by four walls, each wall lit up by a projector. 3-D images could be flashed onto the walls, giving the illusion of being transported to another world. In one demonstration, I was surrounded by giant, ferocious dinosaurs. By moving a joystick, I could take a ride on the back of a Tyrannosaurus rex, or even go right into its mouth. Then I visited the Aberdeen Proving Ground in Maryland, where the U.S. military has devised the most advanced version of a holodeck. Sensors were placed on my helmet and backpack, so the computer knew exactly the position of my body. I then walked on an Omnidirectional Treadmill, a sophisticated treadmill that allows you to walk in any direction while remaining in the same place. Suddenly I was on a battlefield, dodging bullets from enemy snipers. I could run in any direction, hide in any alleyway, sprint down any street, and the3-D images on the screen changed instantly. I could even lie flat on the floor, and the screens changed accordingly. I could imagine that, in the future, you will be able to experience total immersion, e.g. engage in dogfights with alien s.p.a.ces.h.i.+ps, flee from rampaging monsters, or frolic on a deserted island, all from the comfort of your living room.

MEDICAL CARE IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

A visit to the doctor's office will be completely changed. For a routine checkup, when you talk to the "doctor," it will probably be a robotic software program that appears on your wall screen and that can correctly diagnose up to 95 percent of all common ailments. Your "doctor" may look like a person, but it will actually be an animated image programmed to ask certain simple questions. Your "doctor" will also have a complete record of your genes, and will recommend a course of medical treatments that takes into account all your genetic risk factors.

To diagnose a problem, the "doctor" will ask you to pa.s.s a simple probe over your body. In the original Star Trek Star Trek TV series, the public was amazed to see a device called the tricorder that could instantly diagnose any illness and peer inside your body. But you do not have to wait until the twenty-third century for this futuristic device. Already, MRI machines, which weigh several tons and can fill up an entire room, have been miniaturized to about a foot, and will eventually be as small as a cell phone. By pa.s.sing one over your body, you will be able to see inside your organs. Computers will process these 3-D images and then give you a diagnosis. This probe will also be able to determine, within minutes, the presence of a wide variety of diseases, including cancer, years before a tumor forms. This probe will contain DNA chips, silicon chips that have millions of tiny sensors that can detect the presence of the telltale DNA of many diseases. TV series, the public was amazed to see a device called the tricorder that could instantly diagnose any illness and peer inside your body. But you do not have to wait until the twenty-third century for this futuristic device. Already, MRI machines, which weigh several tons and can fill up an entire room, have been miniaturized to about a foot, and will eventually be as small as a cell phone. By pa.s.sing one over your body, you will be able to see inside your organs. Computers will process these 3-D images and then give you a diagnosis. This probe will also be able to determine, within minutes, the presence of a wide variety of diseases, including cancer, years before a tumor forms. This probe will contain DNA chips, silicon chips that have millions of tiny sensors that can detect the presence of the telltale DNA of many diseases.

Of course, many people hate going to the doctor. But in the future, your health will be silently and effortlessly monitored several times a day without your being aware of it. Your toilet, bathroom mirror, and clothes will have DNA chips to silently determine if you have cancer colonies of only a few hundred cells growing in your body. You will have more sensors hidden in your bathroom and clothes than are found in a modern hospital or university today. For example, simply by blowing on a mirror, the DNA for a mutated protein called p53 can be detected, which is implicated in 50 percent of all common cancers. This means that the word tumor tumor will gradually disappear from the English language. will gradually disappear from the English language.

Today, if you are in a bad car accident on a lonely road, you could easily bleed to death. But in the future, your clothes and car will automatically spring into action at the first sign of trauma, calling for an ambulance, locating your car's position, uploading your entire medical history, all while you are unconscious. In the future, it will be difficult to die alone. Your clothes will be able to sense any irregularities in your heartbeat, breathing, and even brain waves by means of tiny chips woven into the fabric. When you get dressed, you go online.

Today, it is possible to put a chip into a pill about the size of an aspirin, complete with a TV camera and radio. When you swallow it, the "smart pill" takes TV images of your gullet and intestines, and then radios the signals to a nearby receiver. (This gives new meaning to the slogan "Intel inside.") In this way, doctors may be able to take pictures of a patient's intestines and detect cancers without ever performing a colonoscopy (which involves the inconvenience of inserting a six-foot-long tube up your large intestine). Microscopic devices like these also will gradually reduce the necessity of cutting skin for surgery.

This is only a sample of how the computer revolution will affect our health. We will discuss the revolution in medicine in much more detail in Chapters 3 Chapters 3 and and 4 4, where we also discuss gene therapy, cloning, and altering the human life span.

LIVING IN A FAIRY TALE.

Because computer intelligence will be so cheap and widespread in the environment, some futurists have commented that the future might look like something out of a fairy tale. If we have the power of the G.o.ds, then the heaven we inhabit will look like a fantasy world. The future of the Internet, for example, is to become the magic mirror of Snow White. We will say, "Mirror, mirror on the wall," and a friendly face will emerge, allowing us to access the wisdom of the planet. We will put chips in our toys, making them intelligent, like Pinocchio, the puppet who wanted to be a real boy. Like Pocahontas, we will talk to the wind and the trees, and they will talk back. We will a.s.sume that objects are intelligent and that we can talk to them.

Because computers will be able to locate many of the genes that control the aging process, we might be forever young like Peter Pan. We will be able to slow down and perhaps reverse the aging process, like the boys from Neverland who didn't want to grow up. Augmented reality will give us the illusion that, like Cinderella, we can ride to fantasy b.a.l.l.s in a royal coach and dance gracefully with a handsome prince. (But at midnight, our augmented reality gla.s.ses turn off and we return to the real world.) Because computers are revealing the genes that control our bodies, we will be able to reengineer our bodies, replacing organs and changing our appearance, even at the genetic level, like the beast in "Beauty and the Beast."

Some futurists have even feared that this might give rise to a return to the mysticism of the Middle Ages, when most people believed that there were invisible spirits inhabiting everything around them.

END OF MOORE'S LAW

We have to ask: How long can this computer revolution last? If Moore's law holds true for another fifty years, it is conceivable that computers will rapidly exceed the computational power of the human brain. By midcentury, a new dynamic occurs. As George Harrison once said, "All things must pa.s.s." Even Moore's law must end, and with it the spectacular rise of computer power that has fueled economic growth for the past half century.

Today, we take it for granted, and in fact believe it is our birthright, to have computer products of ever-increasing power and complexity. This is why we buy new computer products every year, knowing that they are almost twice as powerful as last year's model. But if Moore's law collapses-and every generation of computer products has roughly the same power and speed of the previous generation-then why bother to buy new computers?

Since chips are placed in a wide variety of products, this could have disastrous effects on the entire economy. As entire industries grind to a halt, millions could lose their jobs, and the economy could be thrown into turmoil.

Years ago, when we physicists pointed out the inevitable collapse of Moore's law, traditionally the industry pooh-poohed our claims, implying that we were crying wolf. The end of Moore's law was predicted so many times, they said, that they simply did not believe it.

But not anymore.

Two years ago, I keynoted a major conference for Microsoft at their main headquarters in Seattle, Was.h.i.+ngton. Three thousand of the top engineers at Microsoft were in the audience, waiting to hear what I had to say about the future of computers and telecommunications. Staring out at the huge crowd, I could see the faces of the young, enthusiastic engineers who would be creating the programs that will run the computers sitting on our desks and laps. I was blunt about Moore's law, and said that the industry has to prepare for this collapse. A decade earlier, I might have been met with laughter or a few snickers. But this time I only saw people nodding their heads.

So the collapse of Moore's law is a matter of international importance, with trillions of dollars at stake. But precisely how it will end, and what will replace it, depends on the laws of physics. The answers to these physics questions will eventually rock the economic structure of capitalism.

To understand this situation, it is important to realize that the remarkable success of the computer revolution rests on several principles of physics. First, computers have dazzling speed because electrical signals travel at near the speed of light, which is the ultimate speed in the universe. In one second, a light beam can travel around the world seven times or reach the moon. Electrons are also easily moved around and loosely bound to the atom (and can be sc.r.a.ped off just by combing your hair, walking across a carpet, or by doing your laundry-that's why we have static cling). The combination of loosely bound electrons and their enormous speed allows us to send electrical signals at a blinding pace, which has created the electric revolution of the past century.

Second, there is virtually no limit to the amount of information you can place on a laser beam. Light waves, because they vibrate much faster than sound waves, can carry vastly more information than sound. (For example, think of stretching a long piece of rope and then vibrating one end rapidly. The faster you wiggle one end, the more signals you can send along the rope. Hence, the amount of information you can cram onto a wave increases the faster you vibrate it, that is, by increasing its frequency.) Light is a wave that vibrates at roughly 1014 cycles per second (that is 1 with 14 zeros after it). It takes many cycles to convey one bit of information (a 1 or a 0). This means that a fiber-optic cable can carry roughly 10 cycles per second (that is 1 with 14 zeros after it). It takes many cycles to convey one bit of information (a 1 or a 0). This means that a fiber-optic cable can carry roughly 1011 bits of information on a single frequency. And this number can be increased by cramming many signals into a single optical fiber and then bundling these fibers into a cable. This means that, by increasing the number of channels in a cable and then increasing the number of cables, one can transmit information almost without limit. bits of information on a single frequency. And this number can be increased by cramming many signals into a single optical fiber and then bundling these fibers into a cable. This means that, by increasing the number of channels in a cable and then increasing the number of cables, one can transmit information almost without limit.

Third, and most important, the computer revolution is driven by miniaturizing transistors. A transistor is a gate, or switch, that controls the flow of electricity. If an electric circuit is compared to plumbing, then a transistor is like a valve controlling the flow of water. In the same way that the simple twist of a valve can control a huge volume of water, the transistor allows a tiny flow of electricity to control a much larger flow, thereby amplifying its power.

At the heart of this revolution is the computer chip, which can contain hundreds of millions of transistors on a silicon wafer the size of your fingernail. Inside your laptop there is a chip whose transistors can be seen only under a microscope. These incredibly tiny transistors are created the same way that designs on T-s.h.i.+rts are made.

Designs on T-s.h.i.+rts are ma.s.s-produced by first creating a stencil with the outline of the pattern one wishes to create. Then the stencil is placed over the cloth, and spray paint is applied. Only where there are gaps in the stencil does the paint penetrate to the cloth. Once the stencil is removed, one has a perfect copy of the pattern on the T-s.h.i.+rt.

Likewise, a stencil is made containing the intricate outlines of millions of transistors. This is placed over a wafer containing many layers of silicon, which is sensitive to light. Ultraviolet light is then focused on the stencil, which then penetrates through the gaps of the stencil and exposes the silicon wafer.

Then the wafer is bathed in acid, carving the outlines of the circuits and creating the intricate design of millions of transistors. Since the wafer consists of many conducting and semiconducting layers, the acid cuts into the wafer at different depths and patterns, so one can create circuits of enormous complexity.

One reason why Moore's law has relentlessly increased the power of chips is because UV light can be tuned so that its wavelength is smaller and smaller, making it possible to etch increasingly tiny transistors onto silicon wafers. Since UV light has a wavelength as small as 10 nanometers (a nanometer is a billionth of a meter), this means that the smallest transistor that you can etch is about thirty atoms across.

But this process cannot go on forever. At some point, it will be physically impossible to etch transistors in this way that are the size of atoms. You can even calculate roughly when Moore's law will finally collapse: when you finally hit transistors the size of individual atoms.

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The end of Moore's law. Chips are made the same way as designs on T-s.h.i.+rts. Instead of spray painting over a stencil, UV light is focused on a stencil, burning an image onto layers of silicon. Acids then carve out the image, creating hundreds of millions of transistors. But there is a limit to the process when we hit the atomic scale. Will Silicon Valley become a rust belt? (photo credit 1.1)

Around 2020 or soon afterward, Moore's law will gradually cease to hold true and Silicon Valley may slowly turn into a rust belt unless a replacement technology is found. According to the laws of physics, eventually the Age of Silicon will come to a close, as we enter the Post-Silicon Era. Transistors will be so small that quantum theory or atomic physics takes over and electrons leak out of the wires. For example, the thinnest layer inside your computer will be about five atoms across. At that point, according to the laws of physics, the quantum theory takes over. The Heisenberg uncertainty principle states that you cannot know both the position and velocity of any particle. This may sound counterintuitive, but at the atomic level you simply cannot know where the electron is, so it can never be confined precisely in an ultrathin wire or layer and it necessarily leaks out, causing the circuit to short-circuit.

We will discuss this in more detail in Chapter 4 Chapter 4, when we a.n.a.lyze nanotechnology. For the rest of this chapter, we will a.s.sume that physicists have found a successor to silicon power, but that computer power grows at a much slower pace than before. Computers will most likely continue to grow exponentially, but the doubling time will not be eighteen months, but many years.

MIXING REAL AND VIRTUAL REALITY.

By midcentury, we should all be living in a mixture of real and virtual reality. In our contact lens or gla.s.ses, we will simultaneously see virtual images superimposed on the real world. This is the vision of Susumu Tachi of Keio University in j.a.pan and many others. He is designing special goggles that blend fantasy and reality. His first project is to make things disappear into thin air.

I visited Professor Tachi in Tokyo and witnessed some of his remarkable experiments in mixing real and virtual reality. One simple application is to make an object disappear (at least in your goggles). First, I wore a special light brown raincoat. When I spread out my arms, it resembled a large sail. Then a camera was focused on my raincoat and a second camera filmed the scenery behind me, consisting of buses and cars moving along a road. An instant later, a computer merged these two images, so the image behind me was flashed onto my raincoat, as if on a screen. If you peered into a special lens, my body vanished, leaving only the images of the cars and buses. Since my head was above the raincoat, it appeared as if my head was floating in midair, without a body, like Harry Potter wearing his invisibility cloak.

Professor Tachi then showed me some special goggles. By wearing them, I could see real objects and then make them disappear. This is not true invisibility, since it works only if you wear special goggles that merge two images. However, it is part of Professor Tachi's grand program, which is sometimes called "augmented reality."

By midcentury, we will live in a fully functioning cyberworld that merges the real world with images from a computer. This could radically change the workplace, commerce, entertainment, and our way of life. Augmented reality would have immediate consequences for the marketplace. The first commercial application would be to make objects become invisible, or to make the invisible become visible.

For example, if you are a pilot or a driver, you will be able to see 360 degrees around yourself, and even beneath your feet, because your goggles or lens allow you to see through the plane's or car's walls. This will eliminate blind spots that are responsible for scores of accidents and deaths. In a dogfight, jet pilots will be able to track enemy jets anywhere they fly, even below themselves, as if your jet were transparent. Drivers will be able to see in all directions, since tiny cameras will monitor 360 degrees of their surroundings and beam the images into their contact lenses.

If you are an astronaut making repairs on the outside of a rocket s.h.i.+p, you will also find this useful, since you can see right through walls, part.i.tions, and the rocket s.h.i.+p's hull. This could be lifesaving. If you are a construction worker making underground repairs, amid a ma.s.s of wires, pipes, and valves, you will know exactly how they are all connected. This could prove vital in case of a gas or steam explosion, when pipes hidden behind walls have to be repaired and reconnected quickly.

Likewise, if you are a prospector, you will be able to see right through the soil, to underground deposits of water or oil. Satellite and airplane photographs taken of a field with infrared and UV light can be a.n.a.lyzed and then fed into your contact lens, giving you a 3-D a.n.a.lysis of the site and what lies below the surface. As you walk across a barren landscape, you will "see" valuable mineral deposits via your lens.

In addition to making objects invisible, you will also be able to do the opposite: to make the invisible become visible.

If you are an architect, you will be able to walk around an empty room and suddenly "see" the entire 3-D image of the building you are designing. The designs on your blueprint will leap out at you as you wander around each room. Vacant rooms will suddenly come alive, with furniture, carpets, and decorations on the walls, allowing you to visualize your creation in 3-D before you actually build it. By simply moving your arms, you will be able to create new rooms, walls, and furniture. In this augmented world, you will have the power of a magician, waving your wand and creating any object you desire.

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Internet contact lenses will recognize people's faces, display their biographies, and translate their words as subt.i.tles. Tourists will use them to resurrect ancient monuments. Artists and architects will use them to manipulate and reshape their virtual creations. The possibilities are endless for augmented reality. (photo credit 1.2)

AUGMENTED REALITY: A REVOLUTION IN TOURISM, ART, SHOPPING, AND WARFARE.

As you can see, the implications for commerce and the workplace are potentially enormous. Virtually every job can be enriched by augmented reality. In addition, our lives, our entertainment, and our society will be greatly enhanced by this technology.

For example, a tourist walking in a museum can go from exhibit to exhibit as your contact lens gives you a description of each object; a virtual guide will give you a cybertour as you pa.s.s. If you are visiting some ancient ruins, you will be able to "see" complete reconstructions of the buildings and monuments in their full glory, along with historical anecdotes. The remains of the Roman Empire, instead of being broken columns and weeds, will spring back to life as you wander among them, complete with commentary and notes.

The Beijing Inst.i.tute of Technology has already taken the first baby steps in this direction. In cybers.p.a.ce, it re-created the fabulous Garden of Perfect Brightness, which was destroyed by British-French forces during the Second Opium War of 1860. Today, all that is left of the fabled garden is the wreckage left by marauding troops. But if you view the ruins from a special viewing platform, you can see the entire garden before you in all its splendor. In the future, this will become commonplace.

An even more advanced system was created by inventor Nikolas Neecke, who has created a walking tour of Basel, Switzerland. When you walk around its ancient streets, you see images of ancient buildings and even people superimposed on the present, as if you were a time traveler. The computer locates your position and then shows you images of ancient scenes in your goggles, as if you were transported to medieval times. Today, you have to wear large goggles and a heavy backpack full of GPS electronics and computers. Tomorrow, you will have this in your contact lens.

If you are driving a car in a foreign land, all the gauges would appear on your contact lens in English, so you would never have to glance down to see them. You will see the road signs along with explanations of any object nearby, such as tourist attractions. You will also see rapid translations of road signs.

A hiker, camper, or outdoorsman will know not just his position in a foreign land but also the names of all the plants and animals, and will be able to see a map of the area and receive weather reports. He will also see trails and camping sites that may be hidden by brush and trees.

Apartment hunters will be able to see what is available as you walk down the street or drive by in a car. Your lens will display the price, the amenities, etc., of any apartment or house that's for sale.

And gazing at the night sky, you will see the stars and all the constellations clearly delineated, as if you were watching a planetarium show, except that the stars you see are real. You will also see where galaxies, distant black holes, and other interesting astronomical sights are located and be able to download interesting lectures.

In addition to being able to see through objects and visit foreign lands, augmented vision will be essential if you need very specialized information at a moment's touch.

For example, if you are an actor, musician, or performer who has to memorize large amounts of material, in the future you will see all the lines or music in your lens. You won't need teleprompters, cue cards, sheet music, or notes to remind you. You will not need to memorize anything anymore.

Other examples include: *If you are a student and missed a lecture, you will be able to download lectures given by virtual professors on any subject and watch them. Via telepresence, an image of a real professor could appear in front of you and answer any questions you may have. You will also be able to see demonstrations of experiments, videos, etc., via your lens.

*If you are a soldier in the field, your goggles or headset may give you all the latest information, maps, enemy locations, direction of enemy fire, instructions from superiors, etc. In a firefight with the enemy, when bullets are whizzing by from all directions, you will be able to see through obstacles and hills and locate the enemy, since drones flying overhead can identify their positions.

*If you are a surgeon doing a delicate emergency operation, you will be able to see inside the patient (via portable MRI machines), through the body (via sensors moving inside the body), as well as access all medical records and videos of previous operations.

*If you are playing a video game, you can immerse yourself in cybers.p.a.ce in your contact lens. Although you are in an empty room, you can see all your friends in perfect 3-D, experiencing some alien landscape as you prepare to do battle with imaginary aliens. It will be as if you are on the battlefield of an alien planet, with ray blasts going off all around you and your buddies.

*If you need to look up any athlete's statistics or sports trivia, the information will spring instantly into your contact lens.

This means you would not need a cell phone, clocks or watches, or MP3 players anymore. All the icons on your various handheld objects would be projected onto your contact lenses, so that you could access them anytime you wanted. Phone calls, music Web sites, etc. could all be accessed this way. Many of the appliances and gadgets you have at home can be replaced by augmented reality.

Another scientist pus.h.i.+ng the boundary of augmented reality is Pattie Maes of the MIT Media Laboratory. Instead of using special contact lenses, gla.s.ses, or goggles, she envisions projecting a computer screen onto common objects in our environment. Her project, called SixthSense, involves wearing a tiny camera and projector around your neck, like a medallion, that can project the image of a computer screen on anything in front of you, such as the wall or a table. Pus.h.i.+ng the imaginary b.u.t.tons automatically activates the computer, just as if you were typing on a real keyboard. Since the image of a computer screen can be projected on anything flat and solid in front of you, you can convert hundreds of objects into computer screens.

Also, you wear special plastic thimbles on your thumb and fingers. As you move your fingers, the computer executes instructions on the computer screen on the wall. By moving your fingers, for example, you can draw images onto the computer screen. You can use your fingers instead of a mouse to control the cursor. And if you put your hands together to make a square, you can activate a digital camera and take pictures.

This also means that when you go shopping, your computer will scan various products, identify what they are, and then give you a complete readout of their contents, calorie content, and reviews by other consumers. Since chips will cost less than bar codes, every commercial product will have its own intelligent label you can access and scan.

Another application of augmented reality might be X-ray vision, very similar to the X-ray vision found in Superman Superman comics, which uses a process called "backscatter X-rays." If your gla.s.ses or contact lens are sensitive to X-rays, it may be possible to peer through walls. As you look around, you will be able to see through objects, just as in the comic books. Every kid, when they first read comics, which uses a process called "backscatter X-rays." If your gla.s.ses or contact lens are sensitive to X-rays, it may be possible to peer through walls. As you look around, you will be able to see through objects, just as in the comic books. Every kid, when they first read Superman Superman comics, dreams of being "faster than a speeding bullet, more powerful than a locomotive." Thousands of kids don capes, jump off crates, leap into the air, and pretend to have X-ray vision, but it is also a real possibility. comics, dreams of being "faster than a speeding bullet, more powerful than a locomotive." Thousands of kids don capes, jump off crates, leap into the air, and pretend to have X-ray vision, but it is also a real possibility.

One problem with ordinary X-rays is that you have to place X-ray film behind any object, expose the object to X-rays, and then develop the film. But backscattered X-rays solve all these problems. First, you have X-rays emanating from a light source that can bathe a room. Then they bounce off the walls, and pa.s.s from behind through the object you want to examine. Your goggles are sensitive to the X-rays that have pa.s.sed through the object. Images seen via backscattered X-rays can be just as good as the images found in the comics. (By increasing the sensitivity of the goggles, one can reduce the intensity of the X-rays, to minimize any health risks.) UNIVERSAL TRANSLATORS.

In Star Trek, Star Trek, the the Star Wars Star Wars saga, and virtually all other science fiction films, remarkably, all the aliens speak perfect English. This is because there is something called the "universal translator" that allows earthlings to communicate instantly with any alien civilization, removing the inconvenience of tediously using sign language and primitive gestures to communicate with an alien. saga, and virtually all other science fiction films, remarkably, all the aliens speak perfect English. This is because there is something called the "universal translator" that allows earthlings to communicate instantly with any alien civilization, removing the inconvenience of tediously using sign language and primitive gestures to communicate with an alien.

Although once considered to be unrealistically futuristic, versions of the universal translator already exist. This means that in the future, if you are a tourist in a foreign country and talk to the locals, you will see subt.i.tles in your contact lens, as if you were watching a foreign-language movie. You can also have your computer create an audio translation that is fed into your ears. This means that it may be possible to have two people carry on a conversation, with each speaking in their own language, while hearing the translation in their ears, if both have the universal translator. The translation won't be perfect, since there are always problems with idioms, slang, and colorful expressions, but it will be good enough so you will understand the gist of what that person is saying.

There are several ways in which scientists are making this a reality. The first is to create a machine that can convert the spoken word into writing. In the mid-1990s, the first commercially available speech recognition machines. .h.i.t the market. They could recognize up to 40,000 words with 95 percent accuracy. Since a typical, everyday conversation uses only 500 to 1,000 words, these machines are more than adequate. Once the transcription of the human voice is accomplished, then each word is translated into another language via a computer dictionary. Then comes the hard part: putting the words into context, adding slang, colloquial expressions, etc., all of which require a sophisticated understanding of the nuances of the language. The field is called CAT (computer a.s.sisted translation).

Another way is being pioneered at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. Scientists there already have prototypes that can translate Chinese into English, and English into Spanish or German. They attach electrodes to the neck and face of the speaker; these pick up the contraction of the muscles and decipher the words being spoken. Their work does not require any audio equipment, since the words can be mouthed silently. Then a computer translates these words and a voice synthesizer speaks them out loud. In simple conversations involving 100 to 200 words, they have attained 80 percent accuracy.

"The idea is that you can mouth words in English and they will come out in Chinese or another language," says Tanja Schultz, one of the researchers. In the future, it might be possible for a computer to lip-read the person you are talking to, so the electrodes are not necessary. So, in principle, it is possible to have two people having a lively conversation, although they speak in two different languages.

In the future, language barriers, which once tragically prevented cultures from understanding one another, may gradually fall with this universal translator and Internet contact lens or gla.s.ses.

Although augmented reality opens up an entirely new world, there are limitations. The problem will not be one of hardware; nor is bandwidth a limiting factor, since there is no limit to the amount of information that can be carried by fiber-optic cables.

The real bottleneck is software. Creating software can be done only the old-fas.h.i.+oned way. A human-sitting quietly in a chair with a pencil, paper, and laptop-is going to have to write the codes, line for line, that make these imaginary worlds come to life. One can ma.s.s-produce hardware and increase its power by piling on more and more chips, but you cannot ma.s.s-produce the brain. This means that the introduction of a truly augmented world will take decades, until midcentury.

HOLOGRAMS AND 3-D.