Climate Code Red Part 11

IPCC worst-case scenario: C. H. Sekercioglu, S. H. Schneider et al. (2008) 'Climate change, elevational range s.h.i.+fts, and bird extinctions', Conservation Biology 22: 14050; E. Marris, 'The escalator effect', Nature reports climate change, 23 November 2007.

Rate of change is a.n.a.lysed by R. Leemans and B. Eickhout (2004) 'Another reason for concern: regional and global impacts on ecosystems for different levels of climate change', Global Environmental Change 14: 21928.

A 2007 study is J. W. Williams, S. T. Jackson et al. (2007) 'Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100 AD', Proceedings National Academy Sciences 104: 573842.

1350 European plant species: W. Thuiller, S. Lavorel et al. (2005) 'Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe', Proceedings National Academy Sciences 102: 824550 Over the last 25 years: D. J. Seidel Q. Fu et al. (2008) 'Widening of the tropical belt in a changing climate', Nature Geoscience 1: 2124; D. J. Seidel and W. J. Randel (2007) 'Recent widening of the tropical belt: Evidence from tropopause observations', Journal Geophysical Research 112: D20113; S. Connor, 'Expanding tropics "a threat to millions"', The Independent, 3 December 2007.

If the rate should exceed 4 degrees: S. Kallbekken and J. S. Fuglestvedt, 'Faster change means bigger problems', Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, www.cicero.uio.no/fulltext/index_e.aspx?id=5690, accessed 24 December 2007.

Chapter 7: The Price of Reticence.

Roger Jones' Herald Sun article on 10 December 2007 is 'Keep cool is the message on climate'.

Serious disagreement: R. McKie, 'Experts split over climate danger to Antarctica', The Observer, 28 January 2007; F. Pearce, 'But here's what they didn't tell us', New Scientist, 10 February 2007.

Uncertainties in climate science: B. Pittock (2006) 'Are scientists underestimating climate change?', Ecos 87: 34; M. Oppenheimer, B. C. O'Neill et al. (2007) 'The Limits of Consensus', Science 317: 150506; J. Hansen and M. Sato (2007) 'Global warming: East-West connections', draft of September 2007, www.columbia. edu/~jeh1/2007/EastWest_20070925.pdf.

Limitations of IPCC process: B. Pittock, 'Ten reasons why climate change may be more severe than projected' in M. C. MacCracken, F. Moore et al. (eds), Sudden and Disruptive Climate Change (Earthscan: London, 2008).

Inez Fung: C. Barras, 'Rocketing CO2 prompts criticisms of IPCC', New Scientist, 24 October 2007.

Will Steffen's comments are reported by F. Pearce in With Speed and Violence: why scientists fear tipping points in climate change (Beacon Press: Boston, 2007).

Chapter 8: What We Are Doing.

Greenhouse gases: Climate Change 2007: synthesis report. A report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (WMO/ UNEP, 2007); J. Houghton, Global Warming: the complete briefing (Cambridge: Cambridge, 2004); J. Hansen, M. Sato et al. (2007) 'Climate change and trace gases', Philosophical Transactions Royal Society 365: 192554 Carbon dioxide: 'The global carbon cycle', UNESCO/Scope Policy Brief No. 2, October 2006; H. D. Matthews and K. Caldeira (2008) 'Stabilizing climate requires near-zero emissions', Geophysical Research Letters 35: L04705.

Methane: D. T. s.h.i.+ndell, G. Faluvegi et al. (2005) 'An emissions-based view of climate forcing by methane and tropospheric ozone', Geophysical Research Letters 32: L04803.

Aerosols: N. Bellouin, O. Boucher et al. (2005) 'Global estimate of aerosol direct radiative forcing from satellite measurements', Nature 438: 113841; M. O. Andreae, C. D. Jones et al. (2005) 'Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future', Nature 435: 118790; S. E. Schwartz, R. J. Charlson et al., 'Quantifying climate change - too rosy a picture?', Nature Reports: Climate Change, 27 June 2007; 'Faster climate change predicted as air quality improves', Max Plack Inst.i.tute for Chemistry press release, 30 June 2005, www.mpch-mainz.mpg.de/mpg/english/pri0805.htm; V. Ramanathan and G. Carmichael (2008) 'Global and regional climate changes due to black carbon', Nature GeoScience 1: 22127.

Chapter 9: Where We Are Headed.

IPCC scenarios are available at www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/ emission. Roger Jones's comment is 'Keep cool is the message on climate', Herald Sun, 10 December 2007.

Carbon dioxide emissions: M. R. Raupach, G. Marland et al. (2007) 'Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions', Proceedings National Academy Sciences 104: 1028893; 'CO2 emissions increasing faster than expected', CSIRO media release 07/89, 22 May 2007, www.csiro.au/news/GlobalCarbonProjectPNAS.html; R. W. Bacon and S. Bhattacharya, Growth and CO2 Emissions: how do different countries fare (The World Bank Environment Department: Was.h.i.+ngton, 2007).

Carbon dioxide concentrations: A. Arguez, A. M. Waple et al. (2007) 'State of the climate in 2006', Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 88: 92932; 'Carbon dioxide, methane rise sharply in 2007', National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 23 April 2008, www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080423_methane.html; S. Connor, 'If we fail to act, we will end up with a different planet', The Independent, 1 January 2007; J. Amos, 'Deep ice tells long climate story', BBC News, 4 September 2006.

Energy use: The International Energy Agency's annual World Energy Outlook reports are available at worldenergyoutlook.org; World Energy Technology Outlook 2007 (European Commission: Brussels, 2007); D. Pa.r.s.ely, 'Climate change "is accelerating"', The Observer, 23 March 2008.

Rising temperatures: S. Rahmstorf, J. Cazenave et al. (2007) 'Recent climate observations compared to projections', Science 316: 709; D. M. Smith, S. Cusack et al. (2007) 'Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model', Science 317: 79699; J. Hansen, M. Sato et al. (2006) 'Global temperature change', Proceedings National Academy Sciences 103: 1428893.

Tipping points: J. von Radowitz, 'Ice cores hold threat of climate timebomb', The Age, 6 September 2006; J. Hansen, 'The threat to the planet: how can we avoid dangerous human-made climate change?', remarks on acceptance of WWF Duke of Edinburgh Conservation Medal at St. James Palace, 21 November 2006; W. Steffen, 'Climate Change: science, impacts and policy challenges', Policy Briefs 5 (Crawford School of Economics and Government, ANU: Canberra, 2007); J. Hansen, private communication, 29 March 2007; T. Colebatch, 'The European solution', The Age, 24 October 2006.

Chapter 10: Target 2 Degrees.

Sir John Holmes: J. Borger, 'Climate change disaster is upon us, warns UN', The Guardian, 5 October 2007 1-degree and 2-degree impacts are surveyed by M. Lynas, Six Degrees: our future on a hotter planet (Fourth Estate: London, 2007). North Queensland: J. W. Williams, S. T. Jackson et al. (2007) 'Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100 AD', Proceedings National Academy Sciences 104: 573842; L. Minchin, 'Reef "facing extinction"', The Age, 30 January 2007.

Setting goals: 'The Toronto and Ottawa conferences and the "Law of the atmosphere"', geography.otago.ac.nz/Mirrors/ Climatechange-Factsheets_Mirror/fs215.html; I. Enting, T. Wigley et al., Future Emissions and Concentrations of Carbon Dioxide: key ocean/atmosphere/land a.n.a.lyses, Technical Paper No. 31 (CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research: Melbourne, 1994); J. Leggett, The Carbon War: global warming and the end of the oil era (Routledge: New York, 2001); N. Stern, The Economics of Climate Change: the Stern review (Cambridge: Cambridge, 2006).

2-degree scenarios: M. Meinshausen, 'What does a 2C target mean for greenhouse gas concentrations? A brief a.n.a.lysis based on multi-gas emission pathways and several climate sensitivity uncertainty estimates' in H. J. Sch.e.l.lnhuber, W. Cramer at al. (eds) Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge, 2006); M. Meinshausen, 'Less than 2C trajectories: a brief background note', KyotoPlus conference papers, 2829 September 2006, Berlin; S. Rettalack, Setting a Long-term Climate Objective: a paper for the International Climate Change Taskforce (Inst.i.tute for Public Policy Research: London, 2005); P. Baer and M. Mastrandrea, High Stakes: designing emissions pathways to reduce the risk of dangerous climate change (Inst.i.tute for Public Policy Research: London, 2006); N. Rive, A. Torvanger et al. (2007) 'To what extent can a long-term temperature target guide near-term climate change commitments', Climatic Change 82: 37391.

After a careful rea.s.sessment: J. Hansen, M. Sato et al., 'Target atmosphere CO2: Where should humanity aim', submitted to Science 7 April 2008, arxiv.org/abs/0804.1126.

Chapter 11: Getting The Third Degree.

Graeme Pearman's commentary is 'Bali - high urgency', ABC online opinion, 3 December 2007, www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2108079.htm 3-degree impacts are surveyed by M. Lynas, Six Degrees: our future on a hotter planet (Fourth Estate: London, 2007).

Labor policy: P. Garrett, 'Labor's greenhouse reduction target: 60% by 2050 backed by the science', Media statement, 2 May 2007; Penny Wong: 'Aust "most vulnerable" to climate change: Garnaut', ABC News, 21 February 2008.

The 60/2050 goal: The UK Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution's 2000 report Energy: the changing climate is available at www.rcep.org.uk/energy.htm; J. Leggett, The Carbon War: global warming and the end of the oil era (Routledge: New York, 2001).

Stern's target: N. Stern, 'Launch presentation', 30 October 2006 and 'Executive summary: Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change', October 2006, www.hm-treasury.gov. uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_ change; P. Hannam, 'New Stern climate warning', The Age, 28 March 2007.

An ice-free planet: J. Hansen, M. Sato et al., 'Target atmosphere CO2: Where should humanity aim', submitted to Science 7 April 2008, arxiv.org/abs/0804.1126.

The British government: G. Monbiot, 'Giving up on two degrees', The Guardian, 1 May 2007.

The CSIRO report is R. N. Jones and B. L. Preston, Climate Change Impacts, Risk and the Benefits of Mitigation: a report for the Energy Futures Forum (CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research: Melbourne, 2006).

James Lovelock's a.n.a.lysis is described in The Revenge of Gaia (Allen Lane: London, 2006); J. Lovelock and L. R. k.u.mp (1994) 'Failure of climate regulation in a geophysiological model', Nature 369: 73234.

Stern's 2008 comments: 'Climate expert Stern "underestimated problem", The Age, 17 April 2008.

We'd all vote to stop climate change: P. Baer and T. Athanasiou, 'Honesty about dangerous climate change', www.ecoequity.org/ceo/ceo_8_2.htm, accessed 3 January 2007.

Chapter 12: Planning The Alternative.

Nicolas Stern's 4 January 2008 presentation is 'The economics of climate change', Richard T. Ely Lecture, AEA Meeting, New Orleans, www.occ.gov.uk/activities/stern_papers/Ely lecture 20.12.2007 no notes.pdf.

Scale similar to wars and Depression: N. Stern, 'Executive summary: Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change', October 2006.

Tony Coleman's comments were reported by K. Davidson, 'Being the "lucky country" will not save us from climate change', The Age, 20 March 2008.

UNFCCC objective: unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/background/items/1353.php

Chapter 13: The Safe-Climate Zone.

Overviews of paleoclimatology, the study of the Earth's climate history, are available at a number of web portals, including ncdc. noaa.gov/paleo/paleo.html and earthobservatory.nasa.gov/ Study/Paleoclimatology.

Sea levels and the Holocene: J. Hansen (2005) 'A slippery slope: how much global warming const.i.tutes "dangerous anthropogenic interference"? An editorial essay', Climate Change 68: 26979; J. Hansen (2007) 'Scientific reticence and sea level rise', Environmental Research Letters 2: 024002 Hansen threshold: J. Hansen, M. Sato et al., 'Target atmosphere CO2: Where should humanity aim', submitted to Science 7 April 2008, arxiv.org/abs/0804.1126.

Sea-ice flus.h.i.+ng: M. Serreze, M. Holland et al. (2007) 'Perspectives on the Arctic's shrinking sea ice cover', Science 315: 153336; 'Arctic sea ice decline may trigger climate change cascade', University of Colorado media release, March 15, 2007, www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2007/109.html; Y. Yu, G. A. Maykut et al. (2004) 'Changes in the thickness distribution of Arctic sea ice between 19581970 and 19931997', Journal Geophysical Research 109: C08004.

Insight from early Holocene: S. Funder and K. H. Kjaer (2007) 'Ice free Arctic Ocean, an Early Holocene a.n.a.logue', Eos Trans. AGU, 88(52), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract PP11A-0203; F. Wagner, B. Aaby et al. (2002) 'Rapid atmospheric CO2 changes a.s.sociated with the 8,200-years-B.P. cooling event', Proceedings National Academy Sciences 99: 1201114.

Reducing atmospheric carbon: H. D. Matthews and K. Caldeira (2008) 'Stabilizing climate requires near-zero emissions', Geophysical Research Letters 35: L04705.

Cutting emissions to zero: T. Helweg-La.r.s.en and J. Bull, Zero Carbon Britain: an alternative energy strategy (Centre for Alternative Technology, 2007); Aerosols dilemma and direct cooling: Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy (National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, Inst.i.tute of Medicine), Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: mitigation, adaptation, and the science base (National Academy Press: Was.h.i.+ngton, DC, 1992); P. J. Crutzen (2006) 'Albedo enhancement by stratospheric sulfur injections: a contribution to resolve a policy dilemma? Editorial Essay', Climatic Change 77: 21119; H. D. Matthews and K. Caldeira (2007) 'Transient climate-carbon simulations of planetary geoengineering', Proceedings National Academy Sciences 104: 994954; M. O. Andreae, C. D. Jones et al. (2005) 'Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future', Nature 435: 118790; Q. Schiermeier (2007) 'Climate change 2007: what we don't know about climate change', Nature 445: 58081.

Chapter 14: Putting The Plan Together.

Momentous political tipping point: M. Inman, 'Global warming "tipping points" reached, scientist says', National Geographic News, 14 December 2007; A. Beck, 'Carbon cuts a must to halt warming - US scientists', Reuters, 13 December 2007; S. Borenstein, 'Arctic sea ice gone in summer within five years?', a.s.sociated Press, 12 December 2007.

Restoration of Arctic sea-ice: J. Hansen, M. Sato et al., 'Target atmosphere CO2: where should humanity aim', submitted to Science 7 April 2008, arxiv.org/abs/0804.1126.

Less than 1.7 degrees: J. Hansen (2005) 'A slippery slope: how much global warming const.i.tutes "dangerous anthropogenic interference"? An editorial essay', Climate Change 68: 26979; J. Hansen, 'Tipping point: perspective of a climatologist' in E. Fearn and K. H. Redford (eds) The State of the Wild 2008: a global portrait of wildlife, wildlands and oceans (Wildlife Conservation Society/Island Press, 2008). Court testimony: J. Hansen (2007) 'Direct testimony of James E. Hansen', State of Iowa before the Iowa Utilities Board, docket no. GCU-07-1, 22 October 2007, www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/IowaCoal_071105.pdf Lehman Brothers report: J. Llewellyn, J. and C. Chaix 'The business of climate change II: Policy is accelerating, with major implications for companies and investors", Lehman Brothers, 20 September 2007, www.lehman.com/who/intcapital/# Greenhouse development rights: P. Baer, T. Athanasiou and S. Kartha (2007) 'The Right to Development in a Climate Constrained World: The Greenhouse Development Rights Framework', EcoEquity, www.ecoequity.org/GDRs/.

Chapter 15: This Is An Emergency.

Ban Ki-Moon statement: ABC News, 'UN chief says global warming is 'an emergency'', 11 November 2007. The Apollo metaphor was suggested by David Wasdell of the Meridian Programme.

The era of catastrophic climate change: James Hansen raised this subject in 2005 in 'A slippery slope: how much global warming const.i.tutes "dangerous anthropogenic interference"? An editorial essay', Climate Change 68: 26979 and in subsequent presentations including 'The threat to the planet: actions required to avert dangerous climate change' at the Solar Conference on Renewable Energy in Denver on 10 July 2006.

Chapter 16: A Systemic Breakdown.

The Queensland Government April 2007 report is Queensland's Vulnerability to Rising Oil Prices: Taskforce report. Economic restructuring to solve the peak oil crisis is surveyed in Robert Hirsch, Roger Bezdek, et al., Peaking of World Oil Production: impacts, mitigation, and risk management (Novinka Books: New York, 2005). Oil demand growth: J. Mouawad, 'Cuts urged in China's and India's energy growth', New York Times, 7 November 2007; M. T. Klare, 'The bad news at the pump: the $100-plus barrel of oil and what it means', TomDispatch.com, 11 March 2008, www.tomdispatch.com/post/174904.

The contamination of groundwater is reported by Fred Pearce, When the Rivers Run Dry: water - the defining crisis of the twenty-first century (Beacon Press: Boston, 2007). Land use: United Nations Environment Program, Global Environment Outlook: Environment for development (GEO-4), (Progress Press: Malta, 2007).

Food prices and biofuels: Peter Weekes, 'Storm clouds on the horizon', The Age, 22 December 2007; Javier Blas, Chris Giles and Hal Weitzman, 'World food price rises to hit consumers', Financial Times, 16 December 2007. Brittany Sauser, 'Ethanol demand threatens food prices, MIT Technology Review, 13 February 2007; Geoffrey Styles, 'The biofuel gap', energyoutlook.blogspot.com/2008/01/biofuel-gap.html, accessed 7 January 2008; D. Nason, 'First signs of the coming famine', The Weekend Australian, 2627 April 2008.

Chapter 17: When 'Reasonable' Is Not Enough.

Extensive ecosystem damage: F. J. Rijsberman and R. J. Swart (eds.), Targets and Indicators of Climate Change (Stockholm Environment Inst.i.tute: Stockholm, 1990); W. K. Stevens, 'Earlier harm seen in global warming', The New York Times, 17 October 1990.

Stern's advocacy of 550pmm/3-degree target may be found in Part 2.6 of his 2006 'Review on the economics of climate change' for the UK Treasury. An a.n.a.lysis of Labor's 3-degree advocacy is provided in Chapter 11. The IPCC 'Summary for Policymakers of the Synthesis Report of the IPCC Fourth a.s.sessment Report' released in November 2007, in Table SPM.6, provides no modeling below the target range 22.4 degrees.

ACF climate change campaigner Tony Mohr called for 'emissions to 6090 per cent below 1990 levels by 2050', according to AAP, 'Taskforce must aim for radical emissions cuts: ACF', 6 February 2007. The Garnaut Climate Change Review's Interim report was released on 21 February 2008. Ken Ward's comments: 'The chasm between our agenda and climate science The problem statement: It's time to accept dire climate realities', 18 April 2007, gristmill.grist.org/story/2007/ 4/18/111843/339; 'Bright lines: An introduction A new path forward for climate change campaigners', Gristmill, 7 February 2007, gristmill.grist.org/story/2007/2/6/171750/4623.