Climate Code Red Part 10

Scenario values This scenario is premised on: * achieving a safe climate in the interests of all people, all species, and all generations; * a low acceptance of risk, as found in best-practice engineering; and * applying the principle of 'double-practicality' - action must happen in the real world and that must fully solve the problem - and the att.i.tude that 'failure is not an option'.

The conundrum At a practical and physical level, the scenario is based on a conclusion that has been drawn from the science that a safe-climate future is not possible if the Arctic icecap is permanently absent during the northern summer.

It is estimated that, to restore the Arctic ice, the global temperature needs to drop by at least 0.3 degrees from the 2008 level, and that the long-term level of greenhouse gases in the air needs to be in the range of 300325 per million parts of carbon dioxide. To achieve this cooling, we need to set a greenhouse-gas emissions target at zero, and take other significant measures as well. In total, we need to draw about 200 billion tonnes of carbon out of the atmosphere, in order to reduce the heating effect of excess carbon dioxide already in the air, which will in turn fully restore the Arctic icecap in summer.

However, as we cut carbon dioxide emissions, we also reduce the release of aerosols that accompany fossil-fuel combustion. Aerosols, on average, act as a cooling agent in the atmosphere, but are washed out of the lower atmosphere within two weeks; on the other hand, carbon dioxide is only removed from the atmosphere very slowly, and acts as a warming agent for hundreds of years. So if we stop burning fossil fuels, there will be a once-off temperature increase of at least 0.7 degrees, because the acc.u.mulated effect of past carbon emissions continues at the same time as the cooling effect of recently emitted aerosols is rapidly lost.

This spike in temperature could be partially, but not fully, offset if a major effort is made to reduce the emission of short-lived greenhouse gases, such as methane and releases of black carbon.

The removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide can be accomplished by growing bioma.s.s, converting it to biochar (which is largely carbon), and sequestering it in agricultural soils; or it can be accomplished by fully combusting the bioma.s.s, and sequestering the carbon dioxide in geological structures. Simply regrowing forests as a way of storing carbon will not produce enough cooling. Even large-scale biochar production, or combustion and sequestration methods, could take a large number of decades - perhaps as long as a hundred years or more - to initiate effective cooling. As more of Greenland melts and rising temperatures prompt other warming effects, even a transition of decades will prove to be too slow.

What action should we take?

At the time of writing, there were no scientific estimates in the peer-reviewed literature stating exactly how quickly the industrial restructuring and climate-system-change process would take to achieve a safe climate. The Climate Code Red scenario a.s.sumes that the industrial transformation needs to be as fast as can be made possible, for the following reasons: * the planet is already too hot, as is now particularly evident in the Arctic; * high rates of temperature increase will tear apart natural ecosystems; * extreme weather events and climate changes are already debilitating many people and nations; and * there are many unpredictable possibilities that could arise as a result of current greenhouse-gas levels and near-term temperatures: they may destabilise the tropical rainforests and cause their collapse after severe fire; they may destabilise the West Antarctic ice sheet and lead to a catastrophic release of ice into the oceans; and they may cause natural-system warming feedbacks so strong that human efforts to orchestrate cooling will no longer countervail the warming forces.

The fastest restructure of a modern economy occurred during the Second World War, and it seems likely that, with full mobilisation, the industrial restructuring that is needed could be completed in about a decade. The Climate Code Red scenario a.s.sumes that society will, in due course, attempt to complete such an economic restructuring. This will stop greenhouse-gas levels in the air from rising, and will initiate the accelerated removal of excess carbon dioxide from the air; however, in view of the damage already being done by climate change, the beneficial effects of this transformation will almost certainly be too slow in coming.

Two key issues arise in this scenario: * we have to stop emitting greenhouse gases quickly, because the more we emit, the bigger the eventual temperature rise will be; however, in cutting greenhouse gases that are generated by combusting fuels, the aerosol effect will cause a serious short-term temperature rise; and * we must stop the temperature from rising too fast, or too far, and we cannot allow high temperatures to persist for too long, otherwise too much damage will be done.

In light of these issues, we will need to apply additional strategies. Direct cooling strategies that work by increasing the reflectivity of the Earth are most likely needed. These include taking actions that increase the cover of highly reflective cloud (for example, by boosting plankton growth in the oceans or by re-establis.h.i.+ng forests), or injecting aerosols into the upper atmosphere (where they are not washed out by rain), which will also boost reflectivity.

In the last 50 years, humans have been unintentionally geo-engineering the Earth on a huge scale by releasing into the air large quant.i.ties of greenhouse gases and partially countervailing aerosols. Enormous care will be needed to determine the extent to which direct cooling is needed, and to design and select direct cooling methods that can produce clear-cut environmental benefits. The use of temporary intentional geo-engineering for cooling purposes must not be used as an excuse to prolong the release of carbon dioxide.

Economic and political consequences Under the Climate Code Red scenario, there are three enormous tasks that will absorb a sizeable portion of the global economy's productive capacity, particularly during the decade or so in which the bulk of the physical restructuring takes place: the global move to zero greenhouse-gas emissions in as short a period as is environmentally safe, the drawing down of many billions of tonnes of carbon from the air over the fewest possible number of decades, and the direct cooling of the Earth for as long as necessary. Directing a necessarily large part of the economy to the task of creating a safe climate is not seen as being possible under normal political conditions.

The physical success of the scenario depends on sufficient action being taken by nations that produce most of the emissions and that have the economic and physical capacity to contribute to the drawdown of carbon dioxide and to direct cooling. To make this commitment socially possible, we a.s.sume that nations will conclude that they need to go into emergency mode; but the type of emergency action needed is of an unprecedented form.

The dynamics of the climate-change challenge are different from those of the Second World War, during which the threat was palpable from the beginning. While many societies are now feeling significant climate impacts, the largest effects of the current level of greenhouse gases will be felt several decades into the future, and so the degree of action that is necessary now is much stronger than is justified by current impacts alone.

All countries, no matter what their political system, whether liberal-democratic or not, will struggle to achieve the needed change unless they engage their communities in a deliberative process to learn about the climate-change issue, and help them to reach a genuine understanding of the severity of the problem and the necessity for urgent action on a huge scale.

Questions to ask about the Climate Code Red scenario 1. How valid is the a.s.sessment of the climate science? Could the threat be as serious as is argued in Climate Code Red?

2. Is it possible to avoid or reverse dangerous tipping points such as Greenland ice-sheet disintegration, sizeable permafrost carbon emissions, or the catastrophic conversion of rainforests (that is, the conversion of the Amazon to savannah gra.s.sland) if the Arctic remains free of sea-ice in summer?

3. Who could give a well-informed a.s.sessment of the science arguments in Climate Code Red, given that much of the science relied on goes beyond the current IPCC consensus?

4. If the scientific conclusions of Climate Code Red are reasonable, are the proposed responses appropriate? For example: * How necessary are the ethics of creating policy for the benefit of 'all people, all species, and all generations', and the ethics of being risk averse?

* Is the idea of going for a 'safe climate' rather than just avoiding dangerous (catastrophic) climate change a sound response?

* How accurate is the idea that the required solutions go so far beyond business-as-usual that a sufficient response is possible only by establis.h.i.+ng the problems as an emergency?

5. How might the problems of the aerosol conundrum, or of establis.h.i.+ng a cooling mechanism at a sufficient pace and scale, be resolved?

6. How could the detailed action specifications of the Climate Code Red scenario be improved?

7. Will your organisation take a proactive position on a 'safe-climate' future, or will it act neutrally, or in opposition, to such a future?

8. Will your organisation prepare itself to prosper, or function well, in a 'safe-climate' future?

Note: Updated versions of the scenario will be available at www.climatecodered.net

Notes.

Introduction: A Lot More Trouble Ban Ki-Moon's statement was reported by ABC News, 'UN chief says global warming is "an emergency"', 11 November 2007. Richard Alley's '100 years ahead of schedule' was reported by P. Spotts, 'Little time to avoid big thaw, scientists warn', Christian Science Monitor, 24 March 2006. Jay Zwally's canary metaphor was reported by S. Borenstein, 'Arctic sea ice gone in summer within five years?', a.s.sociated Press, 12 December 2007. Robert Corell's statement was reported by I. Hilton, 'Greenland is now a country fit for broccoli growers', The Guardian, 14 September 2007.

North pole tipping point pa.s.sed: M. Inman, 'Global warming "tipping points" reached, scientist says', National Geographic News, 14 December 2007.

Nicolas Stern's 3-degree goal is a.n.a.lysed in Chapter 11.

Chapter 1: Losing the Arctic Sea-Ice.

Martin Parry's statement was reported by D. Adam, 'How climate change will affect the world', The Guardian, 19 September 2007. The February 2007 IPCC report is Climate Change 2007: the physical sciences basis, Working group I report (IPCC: Geneva). Tore Furevik's presentation is 'Feedbacks in the climate system and implications for future climate projections' www.norway.org/NR/rdonlyres/3F179CEC-67E4-4512-8229-701B48B5E54E/36279/fureviktore1.pdf.

Marika Holland's comment was reported by J. Amos, 'Arctic sea ice "faces rapid melt''', BBC News, 12 December 2006. The March and May 2007 studies are M. C. Serreze, M. M. Holland et al. (2007) 'Perspectives on the Arctic's shrinking sea ice cover', Science 315: 153336; and J. Stroeve, M. M. Holland et al. (2007) 'Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast?', Geophysical Research Letters 34: L09501.

The Was.h.i.+ngton Post article on 22 October 2007 is 'At the poles, melting occurring at an alarming rate' by Doug Struck. Regular updates and announcements from the NSIDC are available at nsidc.org/arcticseaice/news. Data on ice thickness was presented by Wieslaw Maslowski to an American Meteorological Society Environmental Science Series Seminar as 'Causes of changes in arctic sea ice' on 3 May 2006.

Walt Meier and Doug Serreze's comments on tipping points were reported in The Independent on 15 August 2007 by S. Connor and on 22 September 2007 by M. McCarthy. Connor also reported on Ron Lindsay's hypothesis on 29 December 2006. Ted Scambos' remarks were made in a personal communication on 21 September 2007, and Struck's Was.h.i.+ngton Post article of 22 October 2007. Tim Flannery's comments appeared in The Age on 28 October 2006.

Changes in Arctic conditions: W. Maslowski, J. Clement et al. (2006) 'On oceanic forcing of Arctic climate change', Geophysical Research Abstracts 8: 05892; D. K. Perovich, J. A. Richter-Menge, et al. (2007) 'Arctic sea ice melt in summer 2007: Surface and bottom ice ablation', Eos Trans. AGU 88(52) Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract C21C-07; '"Warm wind" hits Arctic climate', BBC News, 18 October 2007.

Sea-ice loss predictions: Louis Fortier M. White, '"Frightening" projection for Arctic melt', Ottawa Citizen, 16 November 2007; Wieslaw Malowski J. Amos, 'Arctic summers ice-free "by 2013"', BBC News, 12 December 2007; Jay Zwally A. Beck. 'Arctic's record melt', Sydney Morning Herald, 14 December 2007; Josefino Comiso M. Inman, 'Global warming "tipping points" reached, scientist says', National Geographic News, 14 December 2007.

Only 13 per cent of first-year ice survived melt season: 'Arctic sea ice news & a.n.a.lysis', nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews, accessed 17 April 2008. More open water in 2008: Prof. Olav Orheim, Executive Secretary for the International Polar Year Secretariat, personal communication, 10 March 2008.

Albedo flip: J. Hansen (2007) 'Scientific reticence and sea level rise', Environmental Research Letters 2: 024002; C. Parkinson, D. Rind et al. (2001) 'The impact of sea ice concentration accuracies on climate model simulations with the GISS GCM', Journal of Climate 14: 260623. A. Doyle, 'Arctic thaw may be at "tipping point"', Reuters, 28 September 2007. Warmer surface temperatures: S. Borenstein, 'Arctic sea ice gone in summer within five years?', a.s.sociated Press, 12 December 2007.

Richard Spinrad's comment was reported by a.s.sociated Press, 'Climate change reshaping Arctic', 18 October 2007.

Chapter 2: Greenland's fate.

IPCC Greenland predictions: Climate Change 2007: synthesis report (IPCC: Geneva, 2007) Increased rate of ice ma.s.s loss: E. Rignot and P. Kanagaratnam (2006) 'Changes in the velocity structure of the Greenland ice sheet', Science 311: 5763; J. L. Chen, C. R. Wilson et al. (2006) 'Satellite gravity measurements confirm accelerated melting of Greenland ice', Science 313: 195860; K. Young, 'Greenland ice cap may be melting at triple speed', New Scientist, 10 August 2006.

Increased rate of melting: M. Tedesco (2007) 'Snowmelt detection over the Greenland ice sheet from SSM/I brightness temperature daily variations', Geophysical Research Letters 34: L02504; T. L. Mote (2007) 'Greenland surface melt trends 19732007: Evidence of a large increase in 2007', Geophysical Research Letters 34: L22507; E. Saupe, 'Snowmelt on the rise in Greenland', GeoTimes, 7 June 2007; D. Shukman, 'Greenland ice-melt "speeding up"', BBC News, 28 July 2007.

Increased air temperature: K. Steffen, R. Huff et al. (2007) 'Arctic warming, Greenland melt and moulins', Eos Trans. AGU 88(52) Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract C21C-07 88(52). Robert Corell's comment was reported by E. Hilton, 'Greenland is now a country fit for broccoli growers', The Guardian, 14 September 2007.

Tremors: P. Brown, 'Scientists fear ice caps melting faster than predicted', The Guardian, 7 September 2007. Rising landma.s.s: C. Brahic, 'Shrinking ice means Greenland is rising fast', New Scientist, 2 November 2007.

Critical melt threshold: J. M. Gregory, P. Huybrechts et al. (2004) 'Climatology: Threatened loss of the Greenland ice-sheet', Nature 426: 616; P. Chylek and U. Lohmann (2005) 'Ratio of the Greenland to global temperature change: Comparison of observations and climate modeling results', Geophysical Research Letters 32: L14705.

The remarks by Tim Lenton and Lenny Smith were reported by F. Pearce, 'Climate tipping points loom', New Scientist, 16 August 2007. At the threshold: 'Greenland's water loss has doubled in a decade', New Scientist, 25 February 2006.

James Hansen's comments: 'Scientific reticence and sea level rise', Environmental Research Letters 2: 024002; 'The threat to the planet: Actions required to avert dangerous climate change', presentation at SOLAR 2006 Conference on renewable energy, Denver, 10 July 2006; 'The threat to the planet: How can we avoid dangerous human-made climate change?', remarks on acceptance of WWF Duke of Edinburgh Conservation Medal at St James Palace, 21 November 2006. Hansen's presentations are available at www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/.

Broadening inputs to IPCC reports: M. Oppenheimer, B.C. O'Neill, et al. (2007) 'The limits of consensus', Science 317: 150506.

Could the ice-sheet survive: J. Hansen, M. Sato, et al. (2007) 'Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study', Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 7: 2287312.

Paleoclimate record and sea levels: J. Oerlemans, D. Dahl-Jensen et al., (2006) 'Ice sheets and sea levels', Science 313: 104345; P. Spotts, 'Little Time to avoid big thaw, scientists warn', Christian Science Monitor, 24 March 2006.

The AGU meeting was reported by S. Borenstein, 'Arctic sea ice gone in summer within five years?', a.s.sociated Press, 12 December 2007.

Chapter 3: Trouble in the Antarctic.

Sensitivity to warming: S. Schmitt, 'Refrigeration system for the Earth's oceans threatens to break down', Spiegel online, 2 March 2007, www.spiegel.de/international/0,1518,469495,00.html 6 degrees since 1950: D. Struck, 'At the poles, melting occurring at an alarming rate', Was.h.i.+ngton Post, 22 October 2007.

Collapse of La.r.s.en B: F. Pearce, With Speed and Violence: why scientists fear tipping points in climate change (Beacon Press: Boston, 2007); N. F. Gla.s.ser and T. A. Scambos (2008) 'A structural glaciological a.n.a.lysis of the 2002 La.r.s.en B ice shelf collapse', Journal of Glaciology 54: 316; 'New Research on the 2002 Collapse of the La.r.s.en B Ice Shelf ', nsidc.org/news/ press/20080207_Scambos.html, accessed 27 February 2008. The John Mercer story and Pine Island Bay: J. Mercer (1978) 'West Antarctic ice sheet and CO2 greenhouse effect: threat of disaster', Nature 271: 32125; J. Hansen, 'Huge sea level rises are coming - unless we act now', New Scientist, 28 July 2007; F. Pearce (as above).

The gravest threat: J. Hansen, M. Sato et al. (2007) 'Climate change and trace gases', Philosophical Transactions Royal Society 365: 192554 East Antarctica: E. Rignot, J. L. Bamber et al. (2008) 'Recent Antarctic ice ma.s.s loss from radar interferometry and regional climate modelling', Nature Geoscience 1: 106110; F. Pearce (as above); M. Tedesco, W. Abdalati et al. (2007), 'Persistent surface snowmelt over Antarctica (19872006) from 19.35 GHz brightness temperatures', Geophysical Research Letters, 34: L18504; J. E. Francis and Robert S. Hill (1996) 'Fossil plants from the Pliocene Sirius group, Transantarctic Mountains: Evidence for climate from growth rings and fossil leaves', Palaios, 11: 38996.

Chapter 4: A Rising Tide.

The IPCC's sea-level rise predictions in February 2007 are contained in 'Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth a.s.sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Summary for Policymakers'. The final report for 2007 is Climate Change 2007: synthesis report (IPCC: Geneva).

Water run-off impounded on land: B. F. Chao, Y. H. Wu et al. (2008) 'Impact of artificial reservoir water impoundment on global sea level', Science 320: 21214.

Under-estimation of rises: S. Rahmstorf, J. Cazenave et al. (2007) 'Recent climate observations compared to projections', Science 316: 709; Robert Corell's comment is reported by F. Pearce, 'But here's what they didn't tell us', New Scientist, 10 February 2007; M. Oppenheimer, B. C. O'Neill et al. (2007) 'The Limits of Consensus', Science 317: 150506; P. Brown, 'Scientists fear ice caps melting faster than predicted', The Guardian, 7 September 2007.

James Hansen and his colleagues' writings on sea-level rises include 'Scientific reticence and sea level rise', Environmental Research Letters 2: 024002 and 'Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study', Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 7: 2287312. The log extract is from 'Huge sea level rises are coming - unless we act now', New Scientist, 28 July 2007. Hansen's 1988 remarks are reported 'The public and climate change', www.aip.org/history/climate/ public2.htm, accessed 2 March 2008.

The sea-level rise chart is based on D. Archer, Global Warming:understanding the forecast (Blackwell Publishers: Oxford, 2006). Hansen's comments at the AGU were reported by A. Beck, 'Carbon cuts a must to halt warming: US scientists', Reuters, 13 December 2007.

Stern's review is The Economics of Climate Change: the Stern review (Cambridge: Cambridge, 2006).

Underground water: F. Pearce, 'Cities may be abandoned as salt water invades', New Scientist, 16 April 2006

Chapter 5: The Quickening Pace.

Climate sensitivity: N. Andronova and M. E. Schlesinger (2001) 'Objective estimation of the probability distribution for climate sensitivity', Journal of Geophysical Research 106: 22605; J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves (2006) 'Using multiple observationally-based constraints to estimate climate sensitivity', Geophysical Research Letters 33: L06704; M. Hopkin, 'Climate sensitivity "inherently unpredictable"', Nature News, 25 October 2007; B. Pittock (2006) 'Are scientists underestimating climate change?', Ecos 87: 34.

'Long run' sensitivity: J. Hansen, 'Can we defuse the global warming time bomb?', Natural Science, 1 August 2003; G. H. Roe and M. B. Baker (2007) 'Why is climate sensitivity so unpredictable?', Science 318: 62932; Hansen and M. Sato, 'Global warming: East-West connections' (draft September 2007), www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/East-West_070925.pdf; J. Hansen, M. Sato et al., 'Target atmosphere CO2: Where should humanity aim', submitted to Science 7 April 2008, arxiv.org/ abs/0804.1126.

Paleoclimate data: M. Scheffer, V. Brovkin et al. (2006) 'Positive feedback between global warming and atmospheric CO2 concentration inferred from past climate change', Geophysical Research Letters 33: L10702; A. Sluijs, S. Schouten et al. (2006) 'Subtropical Arctic Ocean temperatures during the Palaeocene/ Eocene thermal maximum', Nature 441: 61-613 As high as 10 degrees: M. O. Andreae, C. D. Jones et al. (2005) 'Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future', Nature 435: 118790 Carbon sinks less effective: C. D. Jones, P. M. c.o.x et al. (2003) 'Strong carbon cycle feedbacks in a climate model with interactive CO2 and sulphate aerosols', Geophysical Research Letters 30: 1479; M. R. Raupach, G. Marland, et al. (2007) 'Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions', Proceedings National Academy Sciences 104: 1028893; S. E. Schwartz, R. J. Charlson et al., 'Quantifying climate change - too rosy a picture?', Nature Reports Climate Change, 27 June 2007; P. M. c.o.x, R. A. Betts et al. (2000) 'Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model', Nature 408: 18487; J. G. Canadell, C. LeQuere et al. (2007) 'Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks', Proceedings National Academy Sciences 104: 1886670; F. Pearce, With Speed and Violence: why scientists fear tipping points in climate change (Beacon Press: Boston, 2007); P. M. c.o.x, C. Huntingford et al., 'Conditions for sink-to-source transitions and runaway feedbacks from the land carbon cycle' in H. J. Sch.e.l.lnhuber, W. Cramer at al. (eds) Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge, 2006).

Hadley Centre modeling: G. Jenkins, R. Betts, et al., Stabilising Climate to Avoid Dangerous Climate Change: a summary of relevant research at the Hadley Centre (Met Office: Exeter, 2005).

Carbon lost by soil and plants: J. Pickrell, 'Soil may spoil UK's climate efforts', New Scientist, 7 September 2005; S. Connor and M. McCarthy, 'Our worst fears are exceeded by reality', The Independent, 29 December 2006; J. L. Sarmiento and N. Gruber (2003) 'Sinks for anthropogenic carbon', Physics Today, August 2002; W. Knorr, W. Gobron et al. (2007) 'Impact of terrestrial biosphere carbon exchanges on the anomalous CO2 increase in 20022003', Geophysical Research Letters 34: L09703; K. M. Carney, B. A. Hungate et al. (2007) 'Altered soil microbial community at elevated CO2 leads to loss of soil carbon', Proceedings National Academy Sciences 104: 499095.

Amazon: Y. Malhi, J. T. Roberts et al. (2008) 'Climate change, deafforestation, and fate of the Amazon', Science 319: 16971; R. Butler, 'Amazon rainforest fires 'worst' in memory', Mongabay. com, 16 October 2007, new.mongabay.com/2007/1016-amazon.html, accessed 28 October 2007; D. Howden and J. Steven (2007) 'South America chokes as Amazon burns', The Independent, 5 October 2007; T. H. Lenton, H. Held et al. (2008) 'Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system' Proceedings National Academy Sciences 105: 178693.

Indonesia: S. Page, F. Siegert et al. (2002) 'The amount of carbon released from peat and forest fires in Indonesia during 1997', Nature 420: 6165.

Permafrost: M. T. Jorgenson, Y. L. Shur et al. (2006) 'Abrupt increase in permafrost degradation in Arctic Alaska', Geophysical Research Letters 33: L02503; K. M. Walter, S. A. Zimov et al. (2006) 'Melting lakes in Siberia emit greenhouse gas", Nature 443: 7175; D. Struck, 'At the poles, melting occurring at an alarming rate', Was.h.i.+ngton Post, 22 October 2007; D. Solovyov and A. Doyle, 'Siberian thaw could speed up global warming', Sydney Morning Herald, 26 September 2007; J. Randerson, 'Forests battle to soak up carbon', The Age, 4 January 2008; J. B. Miller (2008) 'Carbon cycle: Sources, sinks and seasons', Nature 451: 2627.

Ocean sinks: C. LeQuere, C. Rodenbeck, et al. (2007) 'Saturation of the southern Ocean CO2 sink due to recent climate change', Science 316: 173538; A. Woodc.o.c.k, 'Scientists fear climate change speed-up as oceans fail to hold greenhouse gases', The Scotsman, 21 October 2007; M. J. Behrenfeld, K. Worthington et al. (2007) 'Controls on tropical Pacific Ocean productivity revealed through nutrient stress diagnostics', Nature 442: 102528; J. J. Polovina, E. A. Howell et al. (2008) 'Ocean's least productive waters are expanding', Geophysical Research Letters 35: L03618; K. Caldeira, D. Archer et al. (2007) 'Comment on "Modern-age buildup of CO2 and its effects on seawater acidity and salinity" by Hugo A. Loaiciga', Geophysical Research Letters 38: L18608; R. Kleinman, 'Warming turns Barrier Reef acidic', The Age, 18 October 2007

Chapter 6: Most Species, Most Ecosystems.

Martin Parry's statement was reported by D. Adam, 'How climate change will affect the world, The Guardian, 19 September 2007.

Species extinction as temperatures rose 5 degrees: S. T. Jackson and C. Y. Weng (1999) 'Late quaternary extinction of a tree species in eastern North America', Proceedings National Academy Sciences 96: 1384752; S. Rahmstorf, 'Climate change fact sheet', Potsdam Inst.i.tute for Climate Impact Research, www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/warmingfacts.pdf.