An Inquiry into the Permanent Causes of the Decline and Fall of Powerful and Wealthy Nations Part 32

Besides what is remitted home, those servants of the company expend immense sums in the country, living there in the greatest luxury. [end of page #198]

have been the cradle and the grave of most of those nations that have become rich and powerful by the means of commerce.

Our West India wealth, though derived from a source still more, or at least equally, impure, and though not inferior in amount, is, for several reasons, not the cause of so much envy. It is not confined to a company, and therefore the splendour and ostentation that, in the case of the Asiatic trade, occasion envy, do not exist in that to the American islands.

Our monopoly is by no means so complete, which has a double effect in our favour; for, besides preventing others from envying us so much, it prevents them from condemning us so severely.

The same nations that see, in its full force, the injustice of subjecting the inhabitants of the East, in their own country, in a way that, at the worst, is not very rigorous, join cordially in robbing Africa of its inhabitants, to make them slaves in America, in a way, that, at the best, is very rigorous.

Such are the baneful effects of sordid interest acting on the mind of man! But our business is not here to investigate opinions, but their result; and, in the present instance, we find that to admit partic.i.p.ation in criminality is the only way to avoid envy and offence.

The third cause for envy is likewise wanting. The commerce with the West Indies is but of a recent date, and no nation has ever owed its greatness or decline to that single source. {161} It is not like the Asiatic trade, a sort of hereditary cause of quarrel; a species of heirloom, entailing upon the possessor the envy and enmity of all other nations.

The envy occasioned by the West India trade is farther diminished by the circ.u.mstance that the plantations have been raised with the money of the persons by whom they are possessed; and that if they had no original right to the soil in its barren state, the cultivation at least is owing to their capital and industry.

The most solid and secure portion of our trade is that which con-

{161} France was the nation that, before the revolution, gained the most by this trade; indeed, no nation has, to this date, gained so much as it did.

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sists of our manufactures at home. In those, though we excite envy, we excite no other of the hateful pa.s.sions. Emulation is natural, and admiration is unavoidable, on seeing the vast progress that arts and industry have made in this country; so that England is absolutely considered as the first country in the world for manufactures.

This cause of greatness and wealth operates in a more uniform and durable manner; though, like others, it has its bounds, yet the nature of them is not easily ascertained.

In this there are two things essential,--the procuring a market, and the means of supplying it. We have always yet found the means of supplying every market we have got; but we have not always been able to extend our market so much as it might have been wished.

America and Russia offer new markets, as has already been observed, but, to extend our old markets, we must either reduce the price, improve the quality, or extend the credit, and invention is the only means by which these things can be done; and there is no possibility of knowing where to set bounds to invention, aided by capital and the division of labour. We are, however, not to forget that priority in point of time being one of the causes of a nation's rise, and being of a nature to be destroyed in the course of years, the superiority we enjoy may leave us, as it did other nations in former times.

When a country produces the raw material, and labour is cheap, and the art established, we might suppose the superiority secure; but it is not. The cotton trade was first established in the East Indies, where the material grows, where the labour is not a tenth of the price that it is in England, and the quality of the manufactured article is good; yet machinery and capital have transplanted it to England. But the same machinery may give a superiority, or at least an equality, to some other country; it is, therefore, our business to persevere in encouraging invention, by the means that have hitherto been found so successful.

{162}

{162} The law of patents, and the premiums offered by the Society of Arts, suggest improvements, and reward them when made. To those, to the security of property, and nature of the government, we chiefly owe the great improvements made in England.

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The most necessary thing for our commerce is the support of mercantile credit, without which it is in vain to expect that trade will be carried on to any great amount. In 1772, when a great failure occasioned want of confidence, the exports of the country fell off above three millions, but its imports fell off very little. {163} In 1793, when the internal credit of the mercantile people was staggered, precisely the same effect was produced. These are the only two instances of individual credit being staggered to such a degree, as to prevent mercantile men from putting confidence in each other; and they are the only two instances of any very great falling off in the exports in one year, except during the American war, when the chief branches of trade in the country were cut off or diminished.

The falling off, in exports, in 1803, which was very great indeed, (being no less than one-third of the whole,) was not occasioned by the same cause, but appears to have been owing to three others of a different nature.

First, the French had actually shut us out from a great extent of coast, and this occasioned a diminution of exports, which will, in part, be done away, when new channels of conveyance are found out. It will nevertheless operate in causing some diminution, as circuitous channels render goods more difficult to be introduced, and consequently dearer to the consumers.

The second cause appears to have been, the uncertainty of our merchants where to send the goods, and who to trust, as the fear of the extension of French power took away confidence, and produced a sort of irresolution, which is always hurtful to business.

The third cause of the diminution of trade, no doubt, arose from the cessation of that alarm about property, that has been described as having occasioned so much to be sent from the continent to England.

In other words, it is the return of the pendulum which had vibrated,

{163} This is a sort of paradox: when money became scarce, the nation bought nearly as much as ever, but sold less. This is not the case with individuals, and, at first sight, does not appear natural.

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through a temporary impulse, beyond the natural perpendicular. Had there been no revolution in France, and had it not been conducted on the principles it was, our trade could not have augmented so fast as it did; but a falling off of fifteen millions in one year is too much to be ascribed to that cause alone. An examination of the branches that did fall off will elucidate this.

The commerce with the United States of America is one of those that has fallen off, and is the only one that does not appear to be directly connected with these causes. There are some reasons, however, for thinking that it had an indirect connection with them.

Whatever interrupts our connection with the continent of Europe, or renders it unsafe, has, in some degree, the same effect with a stagnation of credit at home. This has taken place; and as it of course affected every branch of trade, that with America felt the blow amongst the rest, and, indeed, more than in proportion; for, as there is no course of exchange with any town in America, and as the credits there are long, the exportation to that country suffers in a particular manner when there is any heaviness in the money market here. Thus it was that, in 1772, the American exports suffered a diminution of two millions from the stagnation; and, in 1793, of rather more than half a million. In the former case, the American trade seems alone almost to have suffered, and, even in the latter case, it fell off more than in its just proportion.

It has been observed, that the improving our manufactures at home is the most secure support of our foreign trade, which chiefly depends on superior skill, industry, and invention, the wages of labour being greatly against us. We shall consider by what stability of tenure we hold that advantage.

The nation or individual that proceeds first in improvement is always uncertain how much farther it can be carried; those who follow, on the contrary, know what can be done, and therefore act with certainty and confidence. As to individuals, those who are the foremost in improvement have great difficulties to encounter; they seldom can procure the pecuniary aid necessary, and always do so with great difficulty; whereas, those who copy, without half their merit, or, [end of page #202] perhaps, without any merit at all, meet with support from every quarter. {164}

From this it is very evident, that the nation the farthest advanced in invention has only to remain stationary a few years, and it will soon be overtaken, and perhaps surpa.s.sed. Holland, Flanders, and France, were all originally superior, in the arts of manufacturing most goods, to England; and, indeed, it is no great length of time since we obtained the superiority over Holland in several articles of importance, and in particular where machinery was wanting. If it were necessary, it would not be difficult to give examples, to shew with what eagerness those who imported inventions were taken by the hand, on the bare probability of success, while the inventors of machines, and of methods of manufacturing entirely new, and of still more importance, were left to grope their way, and, until crowned with success, rather considered as objects of pity than of praise or admiration. {165}

It is not then altogether by a sure or lasting tenure that we hold this superiority of manufactures. We have examined several other sources of wealth, and the general conclusion is, that, without care and atten-

{164} Mr. Arkwright, who produced the cotton-spinning machine, underwent great difficulties for many years; as also did Mr. Watt, the ingenious and scientific improver of the steam-engine; and, had not good fortune thrown him in the way of Mr. Boulton, a man of fortune and resource, and himself a man of genius, he probably must have languished in obscurity, and the nation remained without his admirable invention. The profits derived from the spinning-machine may, at first sight, appear the greater national advantage of the two; but it is not so in reality, for the spinning-machine only manufactures a raw material, brought from another country, cheaper than before; whereas, the steam-engine enables us to obtain raw materials from our own soil cheaper; a thing more important, more permanent, and of which we were more in want: besides this, the steam-engine is extending the scope of its utility every day; whereas, the spinning machines can go little farther. But to leave this digression, which is not altogether foreign to the purpose, and return to the facility with which inventors are followed, it is a fact, that in almost every country in Europe, money can be got by any adventurer who will propose to establish either a cotton spinning machine, or a manufactory of steam- engines; and it is a fact, that immense sums have been, and are still given, for those purposes.

{165} Slitting-mills, saw-mills, the art of imitating porcelain, and of making good earthen-ware, and paper, together with a vast number of other inventions, were imported from Holland; in every one of which we have gone beyond the Dutch, just as they got the better of the Flemings in the art of curing herrings. Priority of invention is not then a permanent tenure.

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tion, this nation cannot be expected long to maintain its superiority over others, in the degree it at present enjoys.

The American market, {166} and the Russian (in a smaller degree,) however, hold out a prospect of increased commerce to us, from external causes, that we cannot flatter ourselves with in the internal ones. It is to those we must look, and to those only, for the extension of the sale of our manufactures; but, even in this case, we must use efforts, for it is very seldom that a good end is effected by accident, or without a view towards its accomplishment.

Having now taken a view of the situation of this country, and seen that, though it is not likely to be deprived of its commerce by conquest, like Babylon, Tyre, or Alexandria, or by a new discovery in geography and the art of navigation, like Venice and Genoa; though, indeed, it has no great appearance of sharing the fate of Spain, Portugal, or Holland, yet there are other causes that may stop its career. If it is exempt from the dangers they laboured under, it is subject to others from which they were free.

We have already examined the effect of taxes and national debt on the industry of a country, even whilst augmenting in wealth; but we have not examined what that effect will be when a country comes to be on a level with other nations that do not labour under the same burthens.

There is no possibility of standing long still with a burthen on the shoulders, it must either be thrown off or it will become a cause of decline. Let us endeavour to point out methods by which that may be averted, or at least procrastinated. In doing this, we are either exposing our ignorance and presumption, or doing a signal service to our country.

{166} The American exports from this country consist almost entirely in manufactures; we neither supply that country with East or West India produce. The Russians are aspiring at possessions in the West Indies, and, no doubt, will succeed; they are advancing still more rapidly in power than the Americans are in population. It was only in 1769, (not forty years ago,) that the first Russian flag was seen in the Mediterranean Sea, and now Russia stands fair to be sovereign of a number of the Greek islands; and, at any rate, by the Dardanelles, to carry on a great commerce. What may thirty years more not effect with such a country, and such a race of sovereigns?

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The load must be taken off, or it will crush the bearer; but how this is to be done is the difficulty. If our debt is paid off, the capital will go to other nations, for it will not find employment amongst ourselves; and this will reduce the nation, and raise others. If it continues, we sink under it; and, if we break faith with the creditors, it destroys confidence for ever; we can no longer give law, by means of our capital, to the markets in other nations, and we probably overturn the government of our own.