Outlines of a Mechanical Theory of Storms Part 15

[47] In making this suggestion, the author is well aware that Ephemerides of the four chief asteroids have been given annually in the Greenwich Nautical Almanac; but for the object proposed they are utterly useless. Will any astronomer contend that these Ephemerides are true to ten seconds of arc? If not, they are useless for the purpose suggested above, and the theory wants revision. And it is evident that any objection against its practicability, founded on the uncertainty of the number of the asteroids themselves, as has already been urged in answer to this suggestion, is an evidence that the objector weighed the subject in the scales of his imagination only.

SECTION SIXTH.

THE POLAR ICE.

We shall conclude these pages by again referring to our theory of the weather, in connection with an event which every friend of humanity and every lover of natural science is bound deeply to deplore.

From the present position of the lunar nodes and apogee, the vortices of our earth do not ascend into very high lat.i.tudes. Now, according to the principles laid down, the frequency of storms tends to lower the temperature in the warm regions of the earth, and to elevate it in the polar regions. Let us suppose the northern limit of the vortices to be in lat.i.tude 70. There will be, in this case, a greater prevalence of northerly winds _within_ this circle of lat.i.tude, to supply the drain to the southward, and the back currents by pa.s.sing above will descend at the pole, partaking of the temperature due to that elevation. The character of the arctic seasons may therefore be considered as partly dependent on the average direction of the wind. Suppose again, the extreme limits of the vortices to be about lat.i.tude 80, the relative areas of the two circles are as 4 to 1; so that in this last case the exclusive range of the northerly winds is limited to one-fourth of the first area. South of 80 the wind will frequently come from the south, and by mixing with the local atmosphere of that lat.i.tude, will tend to ameliorate the small area to the northward. And the greater atmospheric commotion when confined to such a small circle of lat.i.tude, must a.s.sist materially to break up the polar ice; which would tend still more to equalize the temperature.

By referring to our table, we see that the mean conjunction of the pole of the lunar orbit and the moon's apogee, was in longitude 128 on April 10, 1846, and let it be remembered that when the conjunction takes place due south or in longitude 270, the vortices attain their greatest lat.i.tude north. When, on the contrary, the conjunction takes place due north or in longitude 90,[48] the northern limits of the vortices are then in the lowest lat.i.tude possible.

Sir John Franklin sailed in May 1845, and was certainly at the entrance of Wellington sound, near lat.i.tude 75, April 3d, 1846, as the dates on the graves testify. That season, according to the theory, was a cold one; for the vortices could not reach so far to the northward in that year, and consequently there were no storms, properly speaking. It would probably be late in the summer of 1846, before the expedition was liberated, and as the prevailing winds would be from the northward, he would have little choice, but to stand to the westward if the state of the ice permitted. In his instructions he was to use every effort to penetrate to the southward and westward of Cape Walker, and he probably conformed to them under the circ.u.mstances, and pa.s.sed the winter in the ice, in that neighborhood. And in 1847 we do not antic.i.p.ate, from the theory, that he would make much progress westward.

In 1848, Sir James Ross was sent out with the first relief-s.h.i.+p; but was not able to reach the entrance of Wellington channel because of compact ice from there to Leopold Island. This was about the beginning of September--a time when the northern channels are usually the most open.

On the 11th, they ran the s.h.i.+ps into Port Leopold, and the next day the ice shut them in for the winter. From the character of the season, we may infer that if Franklin did not enter Wellington channel in 1847, as is most probable, neither did he in 1848. Perhaps he was not able to get his s.h.i.+ps far to the westward, as we infer from the theory. Still, as the time was not very protracted, he would wait patiently another season and husband his resources.

In 1849, Sir James Ross cut his s.h.i.+ps clear of the ice August 28th, and crossed over to Wellington channel, where he found the land-ice still fast, showing that this season was also a bad one in accordance with the theory. On the 1st of September he met the first gale of wind, at which time the _Inner Vortex_ was at its extreme north lat.i.tude, and rapidly extending its limits by the motion of the perigee.

This vortex describes a smaller orbit than either the central or the outer vortex, and consequently reaches into higher lat.i.tudes. But the time was badly chosen, as the whole series of years since Franklin left has been unfavorable for the early rupture of the ice. Sir James Ross having been drifted out of Lancaster sound by the gale, finally bore up for England towards the close of September 1849.

The same year, the North Star with additional supplies was working up Baffin's bay; but on account of the unusual quant.i.ties of ice, and the frosts "which glued the floes together," she was unable to force a pa.s.sage through the middle ice, and wintered on the east side of Baffin's bay, in lat.i.tude 76 33'--her thermometer marking 64 below zero, as the coldest of the winter. In 1850, the perigee of the moon attained its northern limit, but the position of the node was bad; still this year and 1851, were the best of the series. The North Star succeeded in getting out of the ice on the 1st of August--a very early date for that high lat.i.tude--and on the 8th had crossed over to Possession bay; but being prevented by the land-ice, she bore up for Pond bay and there landed the provisions. The same year (1850) several vessels entered Lancaster sound. Sir John Ross also reached Melville Island; from which it is evident that this season was far better than any preceding. According to Captain Penny, this year a floe of ice at least two years old, filled Wellington strait; but was diminished in breadth at a subsequent visit. He also saw a boundless open sea from the _western_ entrance of Wellington strait; but of course the s.h.i.+ps could not reach it, for the floe before mentioned. Following the indications of the theory, we consider it almost certain that Franklin went to the westward and not through Wellington channel; that he made but slow progress until 1850, when finding the sea more open to the northward, and attributing it more to local influences than to any change in the season, he considered it a better course to extricate the expedition, by pus.h.i.+ng on towards Behring's straits than to attempt the frozen channels he had already pa.s.sed through. But the seasons again getting worse after 1850, he was again arrested in the polar basin by the ice and islands off the northern coast of America.

Regarding the old and new continents as in reality a connected body of land, with a polar depression, we may expect that the great range of American mountains is continued in a straight line, from the mouth of the McKenzie river, obliquely across the Polar sea, and connects with the Ural; and that along the axis of the chain, protuberant ma.s.ses will emerge above the sea level, const.i.tuting an archipelago of islands, from Nova Zembla to the McKenzie; and that these islands, causing an acc.u.mulation of ice, and arresting its general tendency to the southward, is the barrier which Sir John Franklin was finally stopped by, in a situation where he could neither advance nor return. With the map before us, and the data afforded by former voyages, and guided by these theoretical views, respecting the prevailing direction of the winds and the character of the seasons, we should locate Sir John Franklin near lat.i.tude 80, and longitude 145, in 1851; and as the seasons would afterwards become more severe, we may consider that he has not been since able to change his locality, and dare not desert his s.h.i.+ps.

No mere stranger can feel a deeper interest than the author, in view of the hard fortunes of these hardy explorers, and he would not lightly advance such opinions, did he not suppose they were in some degree reliable. In 1832, he himself crossed the Atlantic, for the purpose of offering himself to the Geographical Society of London, intending to be landed as far northward as possible, with a single companion,[49] from which point he purposed to follow the coast line on foot, with cautious discretion as to seasons, confident that, with arms and ammunition, he could support himself for many years. It has always been a grave error in all these northern land expeditions, that they have been too unwieldy, too much enc.u.mbered with the comforts and luxuries of civilization at the outset, and too much loaded with a philosophical paraphernalia, for a pioneering survey,--and cheris.h.i.+ng too fondly the idea that the wide sh.o.r.es of the Arctic sea could be explored in a single season. Had the British government established a few posts in the Arctic regions in the beginning,--one, for instance, in Lancaster sound, another in Behring's Straits, and a third near the mouth of the Coppermine, volunteers of sufficient scientific attainments might have been procured, to banish themselves to these inhospitable regions for a term of years, if a.s.sured of triennial supplies; and in this way, by summer boat-parties and winter expeditions, over land or ice, the explorations could have been gradually extended, and a greater knowledge of the polar regions might have been acquired, with an immense saving both of life and money. In 1832 the author's plan was deranged, by finding that Captain Back was about setting out in quest of Ross, who had then been some four years absent. This officer had all his party engaged when the author waited upon him in Liverpool, and no notice was taken of a modified plan which he forwarded to the Society at his suggestion. It was therefore abandoned.

The above fact is alluded to, in order to show the author's sincerity in expressing his belief that, with a previous preparation of mind and body for a sojourn in those frigid climes, a sufficient subsistence may be derived from the country itself. Advantage must, of course, be taken of the times of abundance, and due preparation made for the season of scarcity. Averaging the extremes, there is little doubt but that both land, and air, and water, afford an abundance of food for man in the Arctic zone, and that, when spurred by necessity, it is within his power to obtain it. We ought not therefore to despond, or give up efforts to rescue those who have well earned the sympathy of the world, by what they must have already suffered. _These northern seas will yet be explored._ The very difficulty of accomplis.h.i.+ng it, will itself give it a charm, which in this restless age will operate with increasing power.

And should efforts now be relaxed, and in some future time the evidence be brought to light that some of the party yet existed, long after all efforts to rescue them had been abandoned, the fact would be a dark spot on the escutcheon of England, which time could not erase.

Since these pages were written, accounts have been received from Captain McClure, of H. M. s.h.i.+p Investigator, which fully confirm the preceding remarks on the character of the seasons in the Arctic circle; and, more recently, despatches have been received from the discovery-s.h.i.+p, Amphytrite, in relation to the past season in Behring's straits, which also confirms the theory.

The Investigator (now supposed to be frozen up in lat. 74 5' N., and long 117 54' W.,--the last despatch being dated April 10, 1853) pa.s.sed round the northern sh.o.r.es of America into the channels communicating with Lancaster sound, in 1850, but was unable to extricate herself in 1852, and, probably, yet remains in the harbor she made in the winter of 1851, in the position above named. No trace of Sir John Franklin's expedition was, however, found, and, indeed, according to our theory, the Investigator was not on the most promising ground. We contend that Franklin has penetrated the pack of apparently perennial ice, which is continually pressing to the southward, and blocking up the pa.s.sages between the northern islands, or skirting the coast line of the continent; which pack has since increased, and effectually stopped all egress from the open central portions of the polar sea. If Sir John Franklin is ever heard from, this pack _must be penetrated_, and a powerful steamer ought to be sent immediately by the British government, to be ready in Behring's straits early enough to take advantage of the first openings, and make a bold push _due north_, so as to get as speedily as possible into the open waters to the north of the pack.

If the author could make himself heard at Was.h.i.+ngton, he would also urge the government to lose no time in following our own expedition under Dr.

Kane, who, if he finds a clear entrance from Smith's sound into the Arctic sea, may be induced to push on, and endeavor to make his way through the pack towards Behring's straits, and thus fall into the same snare as Franklin. According to the theory, the higher the pa.s.sage into the Arctic sea, the less will it be inc.u.mbered with ice, and, consequently, Smith's sound is the best both to enter and return by; and had the author not already smarted enough by having his professions derided, he would have submitted these views to the patrons of that expedition before it sailed.

The scientific world is, in reality, chargeable with the disastrous results of Franklin's expedition. The polar basin is hemmed in by the coast line of Europe, Asia, and America, in about lat.i.tude 70 north, for the greatest part of the entire circ.u.mference. And this coast line, and the islands adjacent, will cause the polar ice to acc.u.mulate and form a frozen belt along these sh.o.r.es, in consequence of the constant tendency of the earth's rotation to press the ice to the southward. The fact that an open pa.s.sage exists between this belt and the sh.o.r.e in summer time, is no objection, as the tides, river currents, and warm land breezes, may very well explain this. The learned have insisted, and do yet insist, that the earth's rotation can produce no motions in the Arctic sea, and, under this delusion, Franklin has pa.s.sed into the comparatively open waters inside the pack, perhaps has lost his s.h.i.+ps; yet it is very possible that the party may have escaped, and derived a subsistence from the more genial waters of the central portion of that ocean unto this day.

We have already alluded to the difference of level between the Atlantic and Pacific waters. It is well known that the currents in the Spitzbergen and Greenland seas is to the southward, and that Parry, in his attempt to reach the pole, was foiled by this very current, frequently setting him back in twenty-four hours more than his party could travel in the same time over the ice. Through Baffin's and Hudson's bay the northern waters are also continually bearing their frozen freight southward. We are, therefore, ent.i.tled to ask, what supplies this immense drain? Behring's straits are only about sixty miles wide, and twenty-five fathoms deep; the supply, therefore, through this channel is totally inadequate, yet there is no other channel into the Arctic sea where the current is inward. We have already explained the reason why the current through Behring's straits is an exception to the general rule, yet still confirming the principle by referring it to the configuration of the land enclosing the Pacific ocean. The whole south Pacific lies open to the pole, and the inertia of the immense ma.s.s of mobile waters pressing northward, and continually contracted by the form of the American and Asiatic coasts, is not balanced by a contrary impulse of the waters of the north Pacific, inasmuch as this ocean becomes narrower as it extends northward, and the only pa.s.sage to the frozen ocean is through the narrow straits of Behring. The axifugal force of rotation due to the northern waters is, therefore, overborne by the vast preponderance due to the southern waters, and, hence, the northern Pacific may be considered as relatively at a higher level, and there will be a current northward through Behring's straits, as we find it. The same cause acc.u.mulates the waters under the equator, thus giving a higher level to the Pacific than to the Atlantic at the isthmus of Panama, where the difference of level is found by actual measurement to be five or six feet. This fact has never before been explained; but the cause is too obvious to admit of question.

That the sea is deeper than was formerly admitted, is now fully confirmed. We have before alluded to the results obtained by Captain Denham, of H. M. s.h.i.+p Herald, who found bottom at 7,706 fathoms, or about nine English miles. Now, whether that spherical sh.e.l.l, which we have contended to be the true form of the solid earth, be continuous and entire; or, whether it may not be wanting in localities of limited extent where the ocean would be absolutely unfathomable, we know not; but if such be the internal const.i.tution of our globe, there will be, no doubt, many channels of communication between the internal and external ocean, and, as a consequence of the earth's rotation, the axifugal current of the Arctic sea may be supplied by an upward current from the interior of the globe; and this current may have a higher temperature than the surface waters of that sea, and thus the middle portions may, in truth, remain open the whole year round, and be teeming with animal life. According to Captain Penny's observations in 1850, whales and other northern animals existed to the westward, where he saw the open sea stretch out without a bound before him.

It has been a question mooted by some, that Franklin's s.h.i.+ps might be overtaken, at an early stage of the voyage, by a storm, and foundered amidst the ice. The theory would give a negative answer to this question. Stiff gales may prevail far to the north when the vortices do not reach so high; but no storm, properly speaking, will be found far beyond their northern limit. After the coming winter (1853), the vortices will gradually penetrate farther and farther to the northward, and the years 1857, 1858, and 1859, will be highly favorable for northern discovery, accompanied, however, with the necessary draw-back of tempestuous weather.

FOOTNOTES:

[48] The reader will of course understand these as celestial longitudes, and the lat.i.tudes as terrestrial.

[49] Mr. William McDonald, of Canada.

CONCLUSION.

Our theory has thus extended itself beyond those limits which we at first had drawn, and our apology must consist in the necessity existing for reconciling the most remarkable phenomena of meteorology to its principles. Yet, after all, what has been said is but an outline of what remains, but this outline is a part of our theory of the weather, and it could not well do without its aid. In some points we may not have correctly interpreted facts; but the facts remain. The numerical elements of the theory may also be in error--we know not; but we think that they are as perfect as the many contingencies on which they depend will permit. What is _certain_ however, is of ample value to compensate for trivial errors. We have hitherto experienced but little courtesy from those intrusted with the keys of knowledge, and cannot consequently antic.i.p.ate a very lenient verdict. But we now tell them before the world, that they have a duty to perform, and an examination to make, and a decision to come to, "whether these things are so." Our theory may be called an ingenious speculation, but WE CHALLENGE THE SCIENTIFIC TO PROVE IT--NOTHING ELSE. The theory furnishes them with tests of daily occurrence, to prove or to disprove it. By such a trial we are willing to be judged; but let it be conducted in the spirit recommended in the opening address before the American a.s.sociation for the Advancement of Science, to expose all false developments, and to do it generously and without prejudice; and to remember, "that the temple of science belongs to no country or clime. It is the world's temple, and all men are free of its communion. Let its beauty not be marred by writing names upon its walls."[50] The _great_ objection, of friction and resistance of an all-pervading medium, which will be urged against it, we regard as rather the offspring of a bewildered imagination, than of scientific induction. We can discover no such consequences as final ruin to our system through its agency; but even if such were discovered, we may answer, that nature nowhere tells us that her arrangements are eternal; but rather, that decay is stamped with the seal of the Almighty on every created thing. Change may be one of the great laws of matter and motion, and yet matter and motion be indestructible. The earth was called into existence for a specific object, and when that object is accomplished, we are a.s.sured that another change awaits her. But when earth, and sun, and planets, are again redissolved into their primitive state, their atoms will still float on the ever-rolling billows of the great ethereal ocean, to be again cast up, on the sh.o.r.e of time, whenever it pleaseth Him to say, "Let there be light."

FOOTNOTES:

[50] Prof. Pierce's Address, 1853.

APPENDIX.

Since the author's arrival in New York for the purpose of publis.h.i.+ng his outlines, the third and fourth volume of the Cosmos has been placed in his hands, containing the latest uranological discoveries and speculations. It is now more than twenty years since he began to investigate the subject he has treated of, and fifteen since he first announced to the world, that he had satisfactory evidence of his theory being true. Luckily, perhaps, he has been cut off from the great streams of knowledge; and he may confess that it was with pardonable feelings of gratification that he discovered in 1853, by the acquisition of the two first volumes of the Cosmos, that the philosophic mind of Humboldt had also pondered deeply on the planetary peculiarities of size, density, distance, inclination of axes and eccentricities of orbits, without eliciting any satisfactory relations.

From the tenor of the third and fourth volume of this learned summary of scientific knowledge, it is evident that the question of a medium filling s.p.a.ce is more and more occupying the learned world; but the author is unable to discover any consistent theory respecting it. The increasing interest attaching to it, however, is evidently preparing the world for some radical change in preconceived views. The explanation given by this present theory to many prominent phenomena, is so totally contrary to that of the learned world, as to leave it untouched by anything yet advanced. What the fifth volume of the Cosmos will contain, is not yet known in this country, neither has the author been favored with any glimpse of the progress of science as developed before the British a.s.sociation; he supposes, however, that he yet stands alone in the position he has defined.

As a question of practical importance, the reader will find in the work cited, the various opinions of the temperature of s.p.a.ce. Both Fourier and Poisson regard this as the result of radiated heat from the sun and all the stars, minus the quant.i.ty lost by absorption in traversing the regions of s.p.a.ce filled with ether.[51] But why should we regard the stars as the source of all motions? Why cannot physicists admit the idea of an infinite s.p.a.ce filled (if we may use the expression) with an infinite medium, possessing an unchangeable mean temperature long before the formation of a single star. A star equal to our sun at the distance of Sirius, would give about one million of million times less heat than our present sun, which is only able to give an average temperature to the whole globe--about twenty degrees above freezing--then let us remember that there are only about fifty stars of the first and second magnitude, which give more light (and by a.n.a.logy heat also) than all the rest of the stars visible. Such labored theories as this of Poisson's is a lamentable instance of the aberrations of human wisdom.

We would also call the reader's attention to a late conclusion of Professor Dove, viz.: That differences of temperature in different longitudes frequently exist on the same parallel of lat.i.tude, or, in other words, are laterally disposed. This may be thought adverse to the theory, but it should be borne in mind that the annual mean temperature of the whole parallel of lat.i.tude should be taken when comparing the temperatures of different years.

Another fact cited in the Cosmos apparently adverse to the theory, is the idea entertained by Sir John Herschel, that the full-moon dissipates the clouds. This question has been fully examined by Professor Loomis before the American a.s.sociation, and he concludes that there is not the slightest foundation for the a.s.sertion--taking as data the Greenwich observations themselves.

FOOTNOTES:

[51] See _Cosmos_, p. 41, vol. III.