Are we Ruined by the Germans? Part 8

NOT A PROTECTIONIST PAMPHLET.

First, I join issue with respect to the motive and nature of my book.

Your correspondent says that I lean to the conclusion that "the only way to prevent the commercial downfall of our country is to revise the Free Trade policy which we deliberately adopted fifty years ago," and, as his readers will remember, he proceeds on that a.s.sumption, and reiterates that statement throughout his articles. It is really unpardonable. Would any of those readers, who were not also readers of my book, imagine that the first chapter of that book contains a disclaimer of holding a brief in favour of any particular doctrine or remedy, Fair Trade being specially named; that not more than seven of my 174 pages are concerned with Protection; that I strenuously and at considerable length advocate other reforms, and often point to other matters as being the determining causes of the decline in a particular trade? Your correspondent knew all this perfectly well, and yet, in order to damage my book with a Free Trade public, deliberately conveyed to them the impression that "Made in Germany" was merely a Protectionist pamphlet. He omitted all reference to technical education, the superiority of German business methods, and the other reforms whose advocacy formed the bulk of the book. And this is the man who sprinkles around charges of "misrepresentation," and of having "skilfully conveyed a false impression"! From a child I was never much impressed by outbreaks of virtuous indignation.

THE CHARGE OF DATE-COOKING.

He reviles me for my dates, and in his own diagrams proves the wisdom of my choice. The object of my book was to show that England's industrial supremacy was departing. Clearly the way to do this was to show the height to which that supremacy had attained, and to contrast it with the position to-day. Now, his first diagram shows that the highest point was reached at the commencement of the nineties. Of course, therefore, I made my comparisons beginning with that period, except where the decline had begun earlier. What is there wrong in this? Similarly I am derided as an "ingenious person" because, in order to show that our production of pig-iron was on the downward grade, I gave the figures for 1882, the highest year, and for 1894, the latest available year. If there were any truth in the charge of date-cooking I should have given to my readers the figures for 1892, which was the lowest year since 1882. It has suited the correspondent to misconceive the whole purport of my book. I was not writing an industrial history of Europe for use in schools. My work was to rouse the manufacturers of England to a sense of the danger threatening their dominion, and I went in detail through the various trades wherein this danger was apparent, showing how great they had been and what was their condition to-day. In different trades the decadence had begun at different periods; to take the same starting year of comparison in each case would, therefore, have been a stupid error.

"Made in Germany" is a call to arms, not an academic disquisition on the movements of trade.

"ARTFUL AND INGENIOUS."

But what of your correspondent's method? With a large air of virtuous impartiality he adopts 1886 for his starting-point all through his tables. It may be my denseness, but beyond meaningless uniformity, I can see absolutely nothing in this method to commend it. I see, however, that it is very useful for optimistic purposes. Did it not strike the reader that, in most industries, 1886 was a year of bad trade, and that therefore its adoption as a starting year of comparison would result in a very inaccurate view of England's former industrial glory? If I felt inclined to adopt his language towards myself I might be tempted to say that his choice of years was "artful" and "ingenious," for to say, with blunt frankness, "I will take the last decade and stick to it all through," is an admirable way to score with the unsuspecting public. The pose of impartiality is excellent. Your correspondent's figures are doubtless as correct as they are interesting, but (in the light of the explanation I have given) I submit that those diagrams might as well have remained undrawn; they do not destroy the tables in "Made in Germany," and, so far as dates are concerned, are ineffectual as a commentary.

THE ABUSE OF STATISTICS.

Your correspondent has a better case for his diagrams when he gives weights as a set-off against money figures, and I cannot, of course, take exception to the use of those statistics. But I do take exception to their abuse; and when he attempts to draw from them the inference that the British manufacturer has nothing to complain of in the matter of falling prices, I suggest that there is an abuse. Of course, in some industries the decrease in the price of raw material has made it possible to manufacture for a lower price, but your correspondent goes much farther than the facts warrant when he a.s.sumes that the difference in price is balanced by an all-round difference in raw material. He forgets, for example, that coal, which in most manufactures is an item of prime importance in the cost of production, is not cheaper than it used to be in his favourite year 1886. Then the average price was 845s.

per ton, in 1894 it was 1050s. per ton. Wages, too, are an even more important item, and these are on the upward grade. So also are rent, rates and taxes. Take his champion instance of the cotton trade. Men used to make fortunes at it. Whoever hears of fortunes being made to-day in cotton manufacture? What we do learn is that recently fifty-two out of ninety-three spinning companies were paying no dividend at all.

Prices are cut because of foreign compet.i.tion. The foreigners have to cut their prices too, but that does not make the fact of foreign compet.i.tion any the less disagreeable. I still think, therefore, that I followed the right method in laying more stress on money than on weights and measures, and anyway no harm could be done by it, because I used money figures for comparison in both the English and the German tables.

To read your correspondent one would imagine that I had confined myself to money figures when tabulating English trade, and to weights when giving the corresponding instances from Germany. Your correspondent was so preoccupied with my skilful conveyance of false impressions that he apparently overlooked the misleading nature of many of his own impressions.

EXCESS OF IMPORTS OVER EXPORTS.

This anxiety has also seemingly taken his attention away from consistency in his own statements. In the first article he rejoices over the fact that our imports exceed our exports, regarding that circ.u.mstance as a sign of prosperity; in his second article (when he has another sort of article in hand) he writes as follows:-"When two tradesmen have mutual transactions, that man will feel that he is doing best who sells more to his neighbour than he buys from him. And rightly so!" That note of exclamation is his. It also represented my feelings when I read the statement. I am also quite at one with him in the quoted remark, but (as in my poor way, I tried to be consistent) I am at issue when in his first article he chuckles over the excess of imports.

Suppose that excess to be made up entirely of s.h.i.+pping, sale commissions, and interest on foreign investments, and that it does not imply that we are living on our capital; even then the thing does not work out quite happily. s.h.i.+pping is all right, of course, but sale commissions less so; they spell enrichment, doubtless, to a certain cla.s.s of City men, but the working and manufacturing cla.s.ses generally get nothing out of these foreign manufactures. Still less do they share in the third item. It does not help this country's industries to aid the establishment of rival industries abroad, which is what foreign investments mostly mean; while when the returns on those investments are used to purchase foreign goods it is again difficult to see exactly where the English industrial cla.s.ses come in. With regard to the entrepot trade, your correspondent says that it "seems somewhat to halt in the process" of slipping away; but as his own figures show that the sixty-seven millions of 1889 have dwindled in six years to the sixty millions of 1895, I don't think I need occupy further s.p.a.ce by combating his a.s.sertion with figures of my own.

Yours faithfully, ERNEST E. WILLIAMS.

_(To be concluded.)_

MR. WILLIAMS'S REPLY.-II.

_To the Editor of the "Daily Graphic."_

Sir,-In my first article I endeavoured to show that the charges of disingenuousness brought against me by your critic not only missed their aim, but possessed a boomerang quality. I will ask your attention to another instance. In his second article your correspondent, in order to damage my reputation for intellectual honesty, writes:-"Mr. Williams has artfully picked out half-a-dozen or so items of our imports from Germany, and then exclaims in horror at the amount of 'the moneys which _in one year_ have come out of John Bull's pocket for the purchase of his German-made household goods.'" This, in vulgar language, is a staggerer.

Let me explain my artfulness. In a half-jocular section in my first chapter, I invited the reader just to look round his own house and make an inventory of the German goods it probably contains. I helped him with a list of the toys in the nursery, the piano in the drawing-room, the servant's presentation mug in the kitchen, the pencil on the study table, &c., and then tried to give point and solidity to my little excursion into the lighter style of writing by enumerating the yearly national bill which Germany presents to us for these household items.

The correspondent (to use his own admirable verb) "twists" this into the implication above quoted, and writes as though these were the only figures I had adduced. Ingenuous, is it not?

THE ALKALI TRADE.

Now to another matter wherein the correspondent has superficially scored a point, but has done so largely by the process of quoting me in disconnected bits. I refer to his alkali trade section in the third article. He quotes two or three sentences of mine commenting on some startling English export figures I had just given. Then he misses out a couple of most important pages, and finishes the quotation with two sentences referring to the increase of German trade. This leaving-out of the pith of the matter, and the bringing into juxtaposition of two sets of unrelated semi-rhetorical remarks, gives to the quotation a forced and rather _non sequitur_ air. The part that was left out is too long for me to reproduce, but it comprises a number of most pregnant instances of the havoc wrought in England's alkali trade, and of the great progress made in the German trade. The correspondent might, with advantage to the forwarding of public knowledge on the subject, have made some reference to these facts, even had it cramped the s.p.a.ce at his disposal for inveighing against my "grossly inaccurate impressions."

Here is a case which ill.u.s.trates the necessity of my appeal to the reader to go direct to the incriminated book.

THE CHEMICAL MANURE TRADE.

Neither can I admire the correspondent's sudden and peculiar change of method in dealing with the chemical manure trade. Anyone acquainted with the trade in sulphate of ammonia knows how the Germans are capturing it, their estimated annual production amounting now to 100,000 tons. It is among the most startling instances of Germany's wonderful progress in her chemical trades. Even the correspondent loses heart, and is fain to confess the expansion here. But in order that he may at all hazards score a point, he introduces the argument that "probably the British farmer ... does not regard this compet.i.tion of German with English manure manufacturers as altogether disadvantageous." This is all very well; but even a hard-pressed critic cannot serve two masters; he cannot set out to prove that the Germans are not beating us, and then, when he tumbles against an instance to the contrary which repulses all attempts to explain it away, turn round and say that it is a very good thing. It is possible to score points in a way which does not improve the scorer's position. Altogether, I venture to suggest to the correspondent that his general case would have been strengthened had he pa.s.sed over the chemical trades in discreet silence.

SOAP IMPORTS FROM GERMANY.

Especially was he ill-advised when, for the purpose of bringing into greater prominence my addiction to false statement, he burst out into italics in the following sentence: "_So far as the Custom House returns show, not one single ounce of foreign soap is imported into the United Kingdom, either from Germany or from any other country._" Because the German returns show an export of soap to England under three different headings. The correspondent should have provided himself with Green Books as well as Blue Books before he set out to demolish me. He would then have learned-what he should have known anyway, considering the attention he has given to the subject-that the English Custom House returns do not show everything.

IMPORTS OF IRON.

This limited acquaintance with German statistics has caused the correspondent to go wrong on other occasions. For instance, in the fourth article he produces a table purporting to show our iron trade with Germany, in which the iron exports from Germany to England cut a very insignificant figure beside the English exports to Germany. To quote his own words in another place-"Most impressive! if only it were true." I had occasion the other day to get out a detailed list of the German exports to England of iron and steel manufactures in 1891; they reached a total of 109,956 tons. The correspondent gives 11,000 tons as the total of iron manufactures; the complete total of iron and steel manufactures, according to the source whence he obviously drew his information, was about 16,000 tons. The explanation is of course that the English returns do not always show the actual place of origin. (It doesn't matter much; compet.i.tion in any other name hits just as hard, and Germany, after all, is but one rival out of many. I only used her as an instance of foreign compet.i.tion generally.)

A "PETTY ACCUSATION."

This particular table is, therefore, hopelessly wrong, and is certainly valueless for any purpose of destructive criticism. It is on this page that the correspondent brings against me a petty accusation of which he should have been ashamed. He says that I have "skilfully conveyed a false impression" by giving certain German figures in hundredweights and English figures in tons. Surely he had the wit to see that I was merely transcribing figures without stopping to translate them; and it is difficult to imagine he could think I was so witless as to adopt a silly sleight-of-hand trick such as that of which he accuses me, a trick which would not deceive a child in the lowest standard of a Board school.

FANCIFUL FOREBODINGS?

Here I must bring to an end my short, detailed criticism of the _Daily Graphic_ correspondent's attack, for I have already exceeded the s.p.a.ce offered to me by the editor, though I have perforce left untouched a number of points on which I should have liked to enlarge my defence. I have not touched the two concluding articles in the series. The last is a statement (more lucidly and ably put than anything I remember ever to have read) of the Free Trade position in general and the case against a Customs Union in particular; but I have recently elsewhere stated my views on those subjects at length. Regarding the penultimate article, I should like to say a word in conclusion. That article attacks me by a side wind. It does not contest the facts contained in my book; on the contrary, it leads off with an airy dismissal of "Mr. Williams and his fanciful forebodings," and it shows, by much rhetorical writing and some interesting ill.u.s.trations, that England is a land flowing with milk and honey and manufactures and money, and generally in a wonderful state of millennial prosperity. My answer is two-fold. In the first place I must congratulate the correspondent on the pleasant surroundings among which alone his days can have been pa.s.sed; but I should like to take him through some awful wildernesses I know-deserts of "mean streets,"

where half-clothed, underfed children s.h.i.+ver for warmth and food at the knees of women gaunt and haggard with the suffering which hopeless poverty inflicts on them; and by way of explanation of these grisly phenomena I would take him to the dock gates in the early morning, where not unlikely he would see men literally fighting for entrance because there is not work enough to go round. If that does not point him out the cause with sufficient clearness I would suggest an examination of the employment returns of the trade unions. There, by-the-by, he would see the greatest want of employment to be in those trades where the pinch of foreign compet.i.tion-"the harmless growth of the German infant," he phrases it-is most in evidence.

A WARNING.

In the second place, I would point out to him that the initial object of my book was to warn the nation in the day of its prosperity-such as it is-that a grave danger was lurking in the way. The fact that the easy-going man of business is surrounded by so many signs of industrial prosperity, such as those which the correspondent details, only made it the more important that he should be aroused to a knowledge of the forces that were undermining the foundations.