The Singularity Is Near_ When Humans Transcend Biology Part 37

35. 35. Robert A. Freitas Jr., private communication to Ray Kurzweil, January 2005. Freitas describes his proposal in detail in Robert A. Freitas Jr., "Some Limits to Global Ecophagy by Biovorous Nanoreplicators, with Public Policy Recommendations." Robert A. Freitas Jr., private communication to Ray Kurzweil, January 2005. Freitas describes his proposal in detail in Robert A. Freitas Jr., "Some Limits to Global Ecophagy by Biovorous Nanoreplicators, with Public Policy Recommendations."

36. 36. Ralph C. Merkle, "Self Replicating Systems and Low Cost Manufacturing," 1994, http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/selfRepNATO.html. Ralph C. Merkle, "Self Replicating Systems and Low Cost Manufacturing," 1994, http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/selfRepNATO.html.

37. 37. Neil King Jr. and Ted Bridis, "FBI System Covertly Searches E-mail," Neil King Jr. and Ted Bridis, "FBI System Covertly Searches E-mail," Wall Street Journal Online Wall Street Journal Online (July 10, 2000), http://zdnet.com.com/2100-11-522071.html?legacy =zdnn. (July 10, 2000), http://zdnet.com.com/2100-11-522071.html?legacy =zdnn.

38. 38. Patrick Moore, "The Battle for Biotech Progress-GM Crops Are Good for the Environment and Human Welfare," Patrick Moore, "The Battle for Biotech Progress-GM Crops Are Good for the Environment and Human Welfare," Greenspirit Greenspirit (February 2004), http://www.greenspirit.com/logbook.cfm?msid=62. (February 2004), http://www.greenspirit.com/logbook.cfm?msid=62.

39. 39. "GMOs: Are There Any Risks?" European Commission (October 9, 2001), http://europa.eu.int/comm/research/biosociety/pdf/gmo_press_release.pdf. "GMOs: Are There Any Risks?" European Commission (October 9, 2001), http://europa.eu.int/comm/research/biosociety/pdf/gmo_press_release.pdf.

40. 40. Rory Carroll, "Zambians Starve As Food Aid Lies Rejected," Rory Carroll, "Zambians Starve As Food Aid Lies Rejected," Guardian Guardian (October 17, 2002), http://www.guardian.co.uk/gmdebate/Story/0,2763,813220,00.html. (October 17, 2002), http://www.guardian.co.uk/gmdebate/Story/0,2763,813220,00.html.

41. 41. Larry Thompson, "Human Gene Therapy: Harsh Lessons, High Hopes," Larry Thompson, "Human Gene Therapy: Harsh Lessons, High Hopes," FDA Consumer Magazine FDA Consumer Magazine (SeptemberOctober 2000), http://www.fda.gov/fdac/features/2000/500_gene.html. (SeptemberOctober 2000), http://www.fda.gov/fdac/features/2000/500_gene.html.

42. 42. Bill Joy, "Why the Future Doesn't Need Us." Bill Joy, "Why the Future Doesn't Need Us."

43. 43. The Foresight Guidelines (Foresight Inst.i.tute, version 4.0, October 2004, http://www.foresight.org/guidelines/current.html) are designed to address the potential positive and negative consequences of nanotechnology. They are intended to inform citizens, companies, and governments, and provide specific guidelines to responsibly develop nanotechnology-based molecular manufacturing. The Foresight Guidelines were initially developed at the Inst.i.tute Workshop on Molecular Nanotechnology Research Policy Guidelines, sponsored by the inst.i.tute and the Inst.i.tute for Molecular Manufacturing (IMM), February 1921, 1999. Partic.i.p.ants included James Bennett, Greg Burch, K. Eric Drexler, Neil Jacobstein, Tanya Jones, Ralph Merkle, Mark Miller, Ed Niehaus, Pat Parker, Christine Peterson, Glenn Reynolds, and Philippe Van Nedervelde. The guidelines have been updated several times. The Foresight Guidelines (Foresight Inst.i.tute, version 4.0, October 2004, http://www.foresight.org/guidelines/current.html) are designed to address the potential positive and negative consequences of nanotechnology. They are intended to inform citizens, companies, and governments, and provide specific guidelines to responsibly develop nanotechnology-based molecular manufacturing. The Foresight Guidelines were initially developed at the Inst.i.tute Workshop on Molecular Nanotechnology Research Policy Guidelines, sponsored by the inst.i.tute and the Inst.i.tute for Molecular Manufacturing (IMM), February 1921, 1999. Partic.i.p.ants included James Bennett, Greg Burch, K. Eric Drexler, Neil Jacobstein, Tanya Jones, Ralph Merkle, Mark Miller, Ed Niehaus, Pat Parker, Christine Peterson, Glenn Reynolds, and Philippe Van Nedervelde. The guidelines have been updated several times.

44. 44. Martine Rothblatt, CEO of United Therapeutics, has proposed replacing this moratorium with a regulatory regime in which a new International Xenotransplantation Authority inspects and approves pathogen-free herds of genetically engineered pigs as acceptable sources of xenografts. Rothblatt's solution also helps stamp out rogue xenograft surgeons by promising each country that joins the DCA, and helps to enforce the rules within its borders, a fair share of the pathogenfree xenografts for its own citizens suffering from organ failure. See Martine Rothblatt, "Your Life or Mine: Using Geoethics to Resolve the Conflict Between Public and Private Interests," in Martine Rothblatt, CEO of United Therapeutics, has proposed replacing this moratorium with a regulatory regime in which a new International Xenotransplantation Authority inspects and approves pathogen-free herds of genetically engineered pigs as acceptable sources of xenografts. Rothblatt's solution also helps stamp out rogue xenograft surgeons by promising each country that joins the DCA, and helps to enforce the rules within its borders, a fair share of the pathogenfree xenografts for its own citizens suffering from organ failure. See Martine Rothblatt, "Your Life or Mine: Using Geoethics to Resolve the Conflict Between Public and Private Interests," in Xenotransplantation Xenotransplantation (Burlington, Vt.: Ashgate, 2004). Disclosure: I am on the board of directors of United Therapeutics. (Burlington, Vt.: Ashgate, 2004). Disclosure: I am on the board of directors of United Therapeutics.

45. 45. See Singularity Inst.i.tute, http://www.singinst.org. Also see note 30 above. Yudkowsky formed the Singularity Inst.i.tute for Artificial Intelligence (SIAI) to develop "Friendly AI," intended to "create cognitive content, design features, and cognitive architectures that result in benevolence" before near-human or better-than-human Als become possible. SIAI has developed The SIAI Guidelines on Friendly AI: "Friendly AI," http://www.singinst.org/friendly/. Ben Goertzel and his Artificial General Intelligence Research Inst.i.tute have also examined issues related to developing friendly AI; his current focus is on developing the Novamente AI Engine, a set of learning algorithms and architectures. Peter Voss, founder of Adaptive A.I., Inc., has also collaborated on friendly-AI issues: http://adaptiveai.com/. See Singularity Inst.i.tute, http://www.singinst.org. Also see note 30 above. Yudkowsky formed the Singularity Inst.i.tute for Artificial Intelligence (SIAI) to develop "Friendly AI," intended to "create cognitive content, design features, and cognitive architectures that result in benevolence" before near-human or better-than-human Als become possible. SIAI has developed The SIAI Guidelines on Friendly AI: "Friendly AI," http://www.singinst.org/friendly/. Ben Goertzel and his Artificial General Intelligence Research Inst.i.tute have also examined issues related to developing friendly AI; his current focus is on developing the Novamente AI Engine, a set of learning algorithms and architectures. Peter Voss, founder of Adaptive A.I., Inc., has also collaborated on friendly-AI issues: http://adaptiveai.com/.

46. 46. Integrated Fuel Cell Technologies, http://ifctech.com. Disclosure: The author is an early investor in and adviser to IFCT. Integrated Fuel Cell Technologies, http://ifctech.com. Disclosure: The author is an early investor in and adviser to IFCT.

47. 47. New York Times New York Times, September 23, 2003, editorial page.

48. 48. The House Committee on Science of the U.S. House of Representatives held a hearing on April 9, 2003, to "examine the societal implications of nanotechnology and H.R. 766, the Nanotechnology Research and Development Act of 2002." See "Full Science Committee Hearing on the Societal Implications of Nanotechnology," http://www.house.gov/science/hearings/full03/index.htm, and "Hearing Transcript," http://commdocs.house.gov/committees/science/hsy86340.000/hsy86340_0f.htm. For Ray Kurzweil's testimony, see also http://www.KurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0556.html. Also see Amara D. Angelica, "Congressional Hearing Addresses Public Concerns About Nanotech," April 14, 2003, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/articles/art0558.html. The House Committee on Science of the U.S. House of Representatives held a hearing on April 9, 2003, to "examine the societal implications of nanotechnology and H.R. 766, the Nanotechnology Research and Development Act of 2002." See "Full Science Committee Hearing on the Societal Implications of Nanotechnology," http://www.house.gov/science/hearings/full03/index.htm, and "Hearing Transcript," http://commdocs.house.gov/committees/science/hsy86340.000/hsy86340_0f.htm. For Ray Kurzweil's testimony, see also http://www.KurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0556.html. Also see Amara D. Angelica, "Congressional Hearing Addresses Public Concerns About Nanotech," April 14, 2003, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/articles/art0558.html.

Chapter Nine: Response to Critics.

1. 1. Michael Denton, "Organism and Machine," in Jay W. Richards et al., Michael Denton, "Organism and Machine," in Jay W. Richards et al., Are We Spiritual Machines? Ray Kurzweil vs. the Critics of Strong A.I. Are We Spiritual Machines? Ray Kurzweil vs. the Critics of Strong A.I. (Seattle: Discovery Inst.i.tute Press, 2002), http://www.KurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0502.html. (Seattle: Discovery Inst.i.tute Press, 2002), http://www.KurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0502.html.

2. 2. Jaron Lanier, "One Half of a Manifesto," Jaron Lanier, "One Half of a Manifesto," Edge Edge (September 25, 2000), http://www.edge.org/doc.u.ments/archive/edge74.html. (September 25, 2000), http://www.edge.org/doc.u.ments/archive/edge74.html.

3. 3. Ibid. Ibid.

4. 4. See chapters 5 and 6 for examples of narrow AI now deeply embedded in our modern infrastructure. See chapters 5 and 6 for examples of narrow AI now deeply embedded in our modern infrastructure.

5. 5. Lanier, "One Half of a Manifesto." Lanier, "One Half of a Manifesto."

6. 6. An example is Kurzweil Voice, developed originally by Kurzweil Applied Intelligence. An example is Kurzweil Voice, developed originally by Kurzweil Applied Intelligence.

7. 7. Alan G. Ganek, "The Dawning of the Autonomic Computing Era," Alan G. Ganek, "The Dawning of the Autonomic Computing Era," IBM Systems Journal IBM Systems Journal (March 2003), http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0ISJ/is_1_42/ai_98695283/print. (March 2003), http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0ISJ/is_1_42/ai_98695283/print.

8. 8. Arthur H. Watson and Thomas J. McCabe, "Structured Testing: A Testing Methodology Using the Cyclomatic Complexity Metric," NIST special publication 50035, Computer Systems Laboratory, National Inst.i.tute of Standards and Technology, 1996. Arthur H. Watson and Thomas J. McCabe, "Structured Testing: A Testing Methodology Using the Cyclomatic Complexity Metric," NIST special publication 50035, Computer Systems Laboratory, National Inst.i.tute of Standards and Technology, 1996.

9. 9. Mark A. Richards and Gary A. Shaw, "Chips, Architectures and Algorithms: Reflections on the Exponential Growth of Digital Signal Processing Capability," submitted to Mark A. Richards and Gary A. Shaw, "Chips, Architectures and Algorithms: Reflections on the Exponential Growth of Digital Signal Processing Capability," submitted to IEEE Signal Processing IEEE Signal Processing, December 2004.

10. 10. Jon Bentley, "Programming Pearls," Jon Bentley, "Programming Pearls," Communications of the ACM Communications of the ACM 27.11 (November 1984): 108792. 27.11 (November 1984): 108792.

11. 11. C. Eldering, M. L. Sylla, and J. A. Eisenach, "Is There a Moore's Law for Bandwidth," C. Eldering, M. L. Sylla, and J. A. Eisenach, "Is There a Moore's Law for Bandwidth," IEEE Communications IEEE Communications (October 1999): 11721. (October 1999): 11721.

12. 12. J. W. Cooley and J. W. Tukey, "An Algorithm for the Machine Computation of Complex Fourier Series," J. W. Cooley and J. W. Tukey, "An Algorithm for the Machine Computation of Complex Fourier Series," Mathematics of Computation Mathematics of Computation 19 (April 1965): 297301. 19 (April 1965): 297301.

13. 13. There are an estimated 100 billion neurons with an estimated interneuronal connection "fan out" of about 1,000, so there are about 100 trillion (10 There are an estimated 100 billion neurons with an estimated interneuronal connection "fan out" of about 1,000, so there are about 100 trillion (1014) connections. Each connection requires at least 70 bits to store an ID for the two neurons at either end of the connection. So that's approximately 1016 bits. Even the uncompressed genome is about 6 billion bits (about 10 bits. Even the uncompressed genome is about 6 billion bits (about 1010), a ratio of at least 106: 1. See chapter 4.

14. 14. Robert A. Freitas Jr., Robert A. Freitas Jr., Nanomedicine Nanomedicine, vol. I, Basic Capabilities Basic Capabilities, section 6.3.4.2, "Biological Chemomechanical Power Conversion" (Georgetown, Tex.: Landes Bioscience, 1999), pp. 14748, http://www.nanomedicine.com/NMI/6.3.4.2.htm#p4; see ill.u.s.tration at http://www.nanomedicine.com/NMI/Figures/6.2.jpg.

15. 15. Richard Dawkins, "Why Don't Animals Have Wheels?" Richard Dawkins, "Why Don't Animals Have Wheels?" Sunday Times Sunday Times, November 24, 1996, http://www.simonyi.ox.ac.uk/dawkins/WorldOfDawkins-archive/Dawkins/Work/Articles/1996-11-24wheels.shtml.

16. 16. Thomas Ray, "Kurzweil's Turing Fallacy," in Richards et al., Thomas Ray, "Kurzweil's Turing Fallacy," in Richards et al., Are We Spiritual Machines? Are We Spiritual Machines?

17. 17. Ibid. Ibid.

18. 18. Anthony J. Bell, "Levels and Loops: The Future of Artificial Intelligence and Neuroscience," Anthony J. Bell, "Levels and Loops: The Future of Artificial Intelligence and Neuroscience," Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B 354 (1999): 201320, http://www.cnl.salk.edu/~tony/ptrsl.pdf. 354 (1999): 201320, http://www.cnl.salk.edu/~tony/ptrsl.pdf.

19. 19. Ibid. Ibid.

20. 20. David Dewey, "Introduction to the Mandelbrot Set," http://www.ddewey.net/mandelbrot. David Dewey, "Introduction to the Mandelbrot Set," http://www.ddewey.net/mandelbrot.

21. 21. ChristofKoch quoted in John Horgan, ChristofKoch quoted in John Horgan, The End of Science The End of Science (Reading, Ma.s.s.: Addison-Wesley, 1996). (Reading, Ma.s.s.: Addison-Wesley, 1996).

22. 22. Roger Penrose, Roger Penrose, Shadows of the Mind: A Search for the Missing Science of Consciousness Shadows of the Mind: A Search for the Missing Science of Consciousness (New York: Oxford University Press, 1996); Stuart Hameroff and Roger Penrose, "Orchestrated Objective Reduction of Quantum Coherence in Brain Microtubules: The 'Orch OR' Model for Consciousness," (New York: Oxford University Press, 1996); Stuart Hameroff and Roger Penrose, "Orchestrated Objective Reduction of Quantum Coherence in Brain Microtubules: The 'Orch OR' Model for Consciousness," Mathematics and Computer Simulation Mathematics and Computer Simulation 40 (1996): 45380, http://www.quanturnconsciousness.org/penrosehameroff/orchOR.html. 40 (1996): 45380, http://www.quanturnconsciousness.org/penrosehameroff/orchOR.html.

23. 23. Sander Olson, "Interview with Seth Lloyd," November 17, 2002, http://www.nano magazine.com/i.php?id=2002_11_17. Sander Olson, "Interview with Seth Lloyd," November 17, 2002, http://www.nano magazine.com/i.php?id=2002_11_17.

24. 24. Bell, "Levels and Loops." Bell, "Levels and Loops."

25. 25. See the exponential growth of computing graphs in chapter 2 (pp. 67, 70). See the exponential growth of computing graphs in chapter 2 (pp. 67, 70).

26. 26. Alfred N. Whitehead and Bertrand Russell, Alfred N. Whitehead and Bertrand Russell, Principia Mathematica Principia Mathematica, 3 vols. (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1910, 1912, 1913).

27. 27. G.o.del's incompleteness theorem first appeared in his "Uberformal unenscheiderbare Satze der G.o.del's incompleteness theorem first appeared in his "Uberformal unenscheiderbare Satze der Principia Mathematica Principia Mathematica und verwandter Systeme I," und verwandter Systeme I," Monatshefte fur Mathematik und Physik Monatshefte fur Mathematik und Physik 38 (1931): 17398. 38 (1931): 17398.

28. 28. Alan M. Turing, "On Computable Numbers with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem," Alan M. Turing, "On Computable Numbers with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem," Proceedings of the London Mathematical Society Proceedings of the London Mathematical Society 42 (1936): 230-65. The "Entscheidungsproblem" is the decision or halting problem-that is, how to determine ahead of time whether an algorithm will halt (come to a decision) or continue in an infinite loop. 42 (1936): 230-65. The "Entscheidungsproblem" is the decision or halting problem-that is, how to determine ahead of time whether an algorithm will halt (come to a decision) or continue in an infinite loop.

29. 29. Church's version appeared in Alonzo Church, "An Unsolvable Problem of Elementary Number Theory," Church's version appeared in Alonzo Church, "An Unsolvable Problem of Elementary Number Theory," American Journal of Mathematics American Journal of Mathematics 58 (1936): 34563. 58 (1936): 34563.

30. 30. For an entertaining introductory account of some of the implications of the Church-Turing thesis, see Douglas R. Hofstadter, For an entertaining introductory account of some of the implications of the Church-Turing thesis, see Douglas R. Hofstadter, G.o.del; Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid G.o.del; Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid (New York: Basic Books, 1979). (New York: Basic Books, 1979).

31. 31. The busy-beaver problem is one example of a large cla.s.s of noncomputable functions, as seen in Tibor Rado, "On Noncomputable Functions," The busy-beaver problem is one example of a large cla.s.s of noncomputable functions, as seen in Tibor Rado, "On Noncomputable Functions," Bell System Technical Journal Bell System Technical Journal 41.3 (1962): 87784. 41.3 (1962): 87784.

32. 32. Ray, "Kurzweil's Turing Fallacy." Ray, "Kurzweil's Turing Fallacy."

33. 33. Lanier, "One Half of a Manifesto." Lanier, "One Half of a Manifesto."

34. 34. A human, that is, who is not asleep and not in a coma and of sufficient development (that is, not a prebrain fetus) to be conscious. A human, that is, who is not asleep and not in a coma and of sufficient development (that is, not a prebrain fetus) to be conscious.

35. 35. John R. Searle, "I Married a Computer," in Richards et al., John R. Searle, "I Married a Computer," in Richards et al., Are We Spiritual Machines? Are We Spiritual Machines?

36. 36. John R. Searle, John R. Searle, The Rediscovery of the Mind The Rediscovery of the Mind (Cambridge, Ma.s.s.: MIT Press, 1992). (Cambridge, Ma.s.s.: MIT Press, 1992).

37. 37. Hans Moravec, Letter to the Editor, Hans Moravec, Letter to the Editor, New York Review of Books New York Review of Books, http://www.kurzweiltech.com/Searle/searle_response_letter.htm.

38. 38. John Searle to Ray Kurzweil, December 15, 1998. John Searle to Ray Kurzweil, December 15, 1998.

39. 39. Lanier, "One Half of a Manifesto." Lanier, "One Half of a Manifesto."

40. 40. David Brooks, "Good News About Poverty," David Brooks, "Good News About Poverty," New York Times New York Times November 27, 2004, A35. November 27, 2004, A35.

41. 41. Hans Moravec, Letter to the Editor, Hans Moravec, Letter to the Editor, New York Review of Books New York Review of Books, http://www.kurzweiltech.com/Searle/searle_response_letter.htm.

42. 42. Patrick Moore, "The Battle for Biotech Progress-GM Crops Are Good for the Environment and Human Welfare," Patrick Moore, "The Battle for Biotech Progress-GM Crops Are Good for the Environment and Human Welfare," Greenspirit Greenspirit (February 2004), http://www.greenspirit.com/logbook.cfm?msid=62. (February 2004), http://www.greenspirit.com/logbook.cfm?msid=62.

43. 43. Joel Cutcher-Gershenfeld, private communication to Ray Kurzweil, February 2005. Joel Cutcher-Gershenfeld, private communication to Ray Kurzweil, February 2005.

44. 44. William A. Dembski, "Kurzweil's Impoverished Spirituality," in Richards et al., William A. Dembski, "Kurzweil's Impoverished Spirituality," in Richards et al., Are We Spiritual Machines? Are We Spiritual Machines?

45. 45. Denton, "Organism and Machine." Denton, "Organism and Machine."

Epilogue.

1. 1. As quoted in James Gardner, "Selfish Biocosm," As quoted in James Gardner, "Selfish Biocosm," Complexity Complexity 5.3 (JanuaryFebruary 2000): 3445. 5.3 (JanuaryFebruary 2000): 3445.

2. 2. In the function In the function y y = 1/ = 1/x, if x x = 0, then the function is literally undefined, but we can show that the value of = 0, then the function is literally undefined, but we can show that the value of y y exceeds any finite number. We can transform exceeds any finite number. We can transform y y = 1/ = 1/x into into x x = 1/ = 1/y by flipping the nominator and denominator of both sides of the equation. So if we set y to a large finite number, then we can see that by flipping the nominator and denominator of both sides of the equation. So if we set y to a large finite number, then we can see that x x becomes very small but not zero, no matter how big becomes very small but not zero, no matter how big y y gets. So the value of gets. So the value of y y in in y y = 1/ = 1/x can be seen to exceed any finite value for can be seen to exceed any finite value for y y if if x x = 0. Another way to express this is that we can exceed any possible finite value of = 0. Another way to express this is that we can exceed any possible finite value of y y by setting by setting x x to be greater than 0 but smaller than 1 divided by that value. to be greater than 0 but smaller than 1 divided by that value.

3. 3. With estimates of 10 With estimates of 1016 cps for functional simulation of the human brain (see chapter 3) and about 10 cps for functional simulation of the human brain (see chapter 3) and about 1010 (under ten billion) human brains, that's 10 (under ten billion) human brains, that's 1026 cps for all biological human brains. So 10 cps for all biological human brains. So 1090 cps exceeds this by a factor of 10 cps exceeds this by a factor of 1064. If we use the more conservative figure of 1019 cps, which I estimated was necessary to simulate each nonlinearity in each neuron component (dendrite, axon, and so on), we get a factor of 10 cps, which I estimated was necessary to simulate each nonlinearity in each neuron component (dendrite, axon, and so on), we get a factor of 1061. A trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion is 1060.

4. 4. See the estimates in the preceding note; 10 See the estimates in the preceding note; 1042 cps exceeds this by a factor of ten thousand trillion (10 cps exceeds this by a factor of ten thousand trillion (1016).

5. 5. Stephen Jay Gould, "Jove's Thunderbolts," Stephen Jay Gould, "Jove's Thunderbolts," Natural History Natural History 103.10 (October 1994): 612; chapter 13 in 103.10 (October 1994): 612; chapter 13 in Dinosaur in a Haystack: Reflections in Natural History Dinosaur in a Haystack: Reflections in Natural History (New York: Harmony Books, 1995). (New York: Harmony Books, 1995).