The Principles of Economics Part 14

Evidently the price of these goods, to control which is the real object of the loan, is merely the sum of the expected rents they will yield, capitalized at the prevailing rate of time-discount. The borrower expects either to make these particular goods earn rents larger than those on the basis of which they have been capitalized, or to transfer them to an economy where goods are capitalized at a higher rate than he is paying. The income yielded by these goods, if the borrower's expectation is fulfilled, is but the difference between present and future rents that has been wrapped up in their capitalization. As time elapses and the rents emerge in wisely chosen investments, the borrower has a surplus large enough to pay the contract interest. It appears, therefore, that the motive of the borrower is to get control of future rents at prices that already involve, in their capitalization, a rate of discount somewhat greater than the interest he contracts to pay.

[Sidenote: The developed market for money loans]

5. _The rate of contract interest on money loans is adjusted at each moment in the money market by the bidding for money loans._ This is a true statement only if it is understood in a somewhat superficial sense.

No error connected with interest is, however, more crude than the view that the interest rate is in any broad sense due to the quant.i.ty of money. Some loans are made apart from the general market, by private agreement between borrower and lender; but in nearly every such case the rate agreed upon is seen to be closely related to that of the general market to which either borrower or lender can resort if he wishes. The greater number of borrowers and lenders of money have a range of choice in their bargaining. The interest rate in modern developed money markets is that rate which brings to equilibrium the demand for money loans and the money capital available within the period. If the ready, loanable money in private hands, in banks, in insurance-company reserves, &c., increases, a lower rate must be offered to borrowers; if the supply decreases, a higher rate will be quoted. In the one case, more men borrow; in the other, fewer borrow and more seek to lend. Thus a rate results, but a rate that is closely connected with larger set of facts--those, indeed, which determine in the long run the rate of capitalization in the community.

[Sidenote: Every person is a buyer or a seller of present goods]

6. _The individual must adjust his business dealings to the market rate of interest._ The market rate is fixed by the bidding of individuals, and every one has something to do with fixing it. In a mult.i.tude of minutely small ways, as present and future goods are compared by men, the rate of interest is affected positively or negatively. But for practical purposes the individual, counting for little in the midst of millions, must look upon the interest rate as beyond his influence.

Therefore, while the rate is determined by each to some degree, all that any one does is to buy or sell present goods, borrow or lend capital, use up or save wealth, according as his own estimate of time-value is less or more than the market rate. In fact, the estimates of individuals diverge constantly from the market rate, but are brought into harmony by their actions with reference both to money loans and to the use and valuation of the various forms of wealth. A Robinson Crusoe working on his island and valuing future goods relatively to present goods higher than before, consumes less; or, valuing them lower, consumes more. The business man who values indirect agents above the market rate borrows, and if he miscalculates and fails to make them earn the expected rent, he loses. In this experimental way many other acts are influenced by the prevailing interest rate and in turn affect it, thus aiding to formulate society's estimate of the value of present as compared with future rents.

CHAPTER 17

THE THEORY OF TIME-VALUE

-- I. DEFINITION AND SCOPE OF TIME-VALUE

[Sidenote: The simplest cases of time-value]

1. _Time-value is the difference between the values of things at different times._ Things differ in value according to form, place, quality of goods, and according to the feelings of men, and--not least important factor--according to time. The simplest and clearest case of time-value is the difference noticeable in the same thing at different moments. Is this good worth more now or next week? Shall this apple be eaten now or next winter? These questions can be answered only after comparing the marginal utilities which differ according to the varying conditions of the two periods.

All the other cases of time-value can, by the practical device of subst.i.tuting other goods of equivalent value, be reduced to the typical case of comparison of the same thing at different times. The comparison may be between very similar things, the one consumed being replaced by a duplicate. An apple borrowed now may be returned next year in the form of one of the same size and quality. The essential thing in this comparison is not physical ident.i.ty, but equivalence in size, sort, and quality at the two periods. This is borrowing under the renting contract.

[Sidenote: Time-value in the case of different kinds of gratifications]

But two or more quite different things may be expressed in terms of another thing and so be made comparable. Money becomes the value-unit through which different things may be reduced to the same terms for comparison. With this mode of expressing the value-equivalence of various goods, the interest contract first becomes possible, money (the standard of deferred payments) being the thing exchanged (possibly only in name) at two periods of time. What is really compared are various gratifications which may be produced by very different material things or services. In its last a.n.a.lysis comparison of values at different periods of time must be a comparison of psychic incomes, of two sums of gratification. The comparison of the value of a bushel of apples with that of a barrel of potatoes or a suit of clothes at the same moment appears simple enough. When all are expressed in terms of money, the comparison of each with its value-equivalent at a later date becomes easy. The simplicity and obviousness of time-value in the case of money loans at interest led men at first to recognize that phase of the problem exclusively, and later the term "interest," not without much confusion of thought, was given a wider significance. Let us now see how large a part of the whole problem of time-value is outside of the money loan.

[Sidenote: Time-value is involved in capitalization of land]

2. _The problem of time-value is quite separable from the concepts of money and capital, though usually connected with them in practice and theory._ It is true that the problem of time-value was first clearly recognized in connection with money and a formally expressed capital sum. Misled by this fact, and taking a very narrow view, writers seventy-five years ago recognized but dimly the problem of time-value in connection with the valuation of the incomes derived from land. It is true, as has been shown above, that the mere putting of an estimate on a durable good such as land involves the process of capitalization, which in turn implies a comparison of the values of the rents expected at different periods. Diminis.h.i.+ng returns in the use of agents involves a loss of time to secure the usufructs emerging. The relation of these facts was not clearly seen until of late.

The phenomenon of time-value as above defined may be seen to be broader even than that of capitalization. The difference in the value of the successive rents of wealth must have been recognized and in some degree measured before there was any conscious calculation of capital value.

Differences in value due to time are everywhere. The problem of time-value often is present where money is not even spoken of or thought of. Money no more causes this time-difference in value than balances cause weight.

[Sidenote: Time-value is taken account of in the keeping up of repairs]

3. _The problem of time-value is involved in repairs and depreciation, and in the use of consumption goods._ It is possible, as we have seen, to increase the sum available for present needs, and to encroach upon the future by postponing repairs on intermediate goods. The balancing of the cost of repairs against the future income is a never-ending task in practical business. One making repairs must purchase the needed materials and labor at a capitalization determined by their expected earning-power in other industries. If the repairs in question will not ensure an annual saving as great as this expected rent, they will not be made. When an industry is declining, it may, for the sake of putting the capital into a better business, be good policy to let the machinery fall into bad repair. The problem of time-value is involved in the application of one's energy to repairing one's own possessions. It is a thought of wide bearings that numberless minor decisions in every petty business involve, if they are correctly made, a measuring of the rate of capitalization.

[Sidenote: And in the choice of enjoyments]

As will be more fully shown in discussing the relation of the prevailing rate of interest to saving, the recognition of time-value is implied in the use men make of consumption goods, in their postponement of enjoyment, in their storing of goods for future use. The varying gratifications yielded by consumption goods, and their values in different conditions cannot be explained without taking account of differences in time. Wherever there can be a choice in the time at which, and consequently in the conditions under which, a thing can be used, there is a choice presented between the different values.

Time-value is present even in a period during which no goods continue to exist, as when a good is consumed at a moment of greater need, to be replaced at a time when less valuable. If an apple is borrowed on the promise to return an apple and a peach at the end of a year, the peach represents the time-difference in value but in the meantime there has been no apple in existence. It is only in a figurative sense that it may be said that interest is paid on that "capital." Interest is paid because of a difference in want-gratifying power, but during the interval there is no material capital.

[Sidenote: Prodigality and vice involve a high discount of future happiness]

4. _The problem of time-value is involved in much foolish pleasure, in prodigality, and in vice._ Economics touches frequently on the borders of ethics. If there were to be formulated an economics of personal conduct, it surely would give a large place to the comparison between present and future pleasures. Forethought, or prudence, is the virtue of recognizing not only future dangers to be avoided, but the greater future joys to be gained in exchange for present pleasures. The reckless and the prodigal underestimate the future and barter all to gratify the moment's impulse. The drinker exchanges the hopes of worthy life for the exhilaration of the spree. Indulgence in social pleasures, if secured at the price of lost sleep, weakened health, and debauched character, are loans from the future made by youthful prodigals at usurious interest.

If no one ever paid more than a moderate rate of interest for the gratification of his present whims and impulses, most hospitals, drug-stores, and medical colleges would close, and half, if not all, the prisons would be empty.

Indeed, time difference in value is a universal phenomenon of life and conduct. Contract interest is but one phenomenal form of time-value, and this in turn is but one phase of value. This section may serve to suggest how much more varied and pervasive the fact of time-value is than has usually been recognized in popular or economic discussion of the subject of interest.

-- II. THE ADJUSTMENT OF THE RATE OF TIME-DISCOUNT

[Sidenote: The exchange value of present and future goods]

1. _The fixing of the discount on future goods is, in its essentials, like the fixing of the market price of consumption goods._ This problem appears to be one of the most difficult in economic theory; but reduced to its simplest terms, it is an aspect of exchange value, and its ultimate explanation must be found in a comparison of psychic incomes.

There must be noted the conditions of demand and supply, the interplay and final equilibrium of the two forces. The declining and marginal utility to the two parties to exchange must be carefully a.n.a.lyzed. One who can do these things is prepared to find the answer to the problem of time-value. Whenever a group of buyers and sellers meet, a ratio of exchange commonly will be arrived at. The ratio of exchange between buyers and sellers of present and future rents likewise is fixed at the estimates of a "marginal pair," at which point the amount offered and taken comes to equilibrium, for at that point no motive exists for any one to change sides.

[Sidenote: The peculiar nature of the exchange in the case of time-value]

[Sidenote: Several reasons why this is not easily recognized]

2. _Time-value as the premium rate on present goods is unlike the ordinary market price, of goods only in the special nature of the utilities exchanged._ The one peculiar need in the theory of this subject is a clear understanding on this point. The goods exchanged, or compared, are direct and indirect goods, or present and future goods, or, more generally speaking, two goods or groups of goods unequally distant in time from present enjoyment. What are sold in a case such as capitalization, involving an estimate of time-value, are present goods or gratifications; what are bought are future gratifications, or indirect agents which stand for, typify, or make possible, future gratifications. Practically every man in a market acts on the knowledge of what the exchange of direct and indirect goods means; yet abstractly stated, the thought seems at first difficult. In valuing any durable good, the theory of time-value is implied. Every time a machine, a house, a book, a field, is bought, the distinction between direct and indirect goods is acted upon, for a choice has been made between present enjoyment and future provision. Anything that endures is an indirect good and implies in its valuation a premium rate on present goods.

The real nature of the exchange in time-valuation is made unclear by the uncertainty of life, leading men to work on to provide against possibility of mishaps; for the most part the world's treasures never afford to their temporary owners the gratification that they typify, or could give. The nature of this exchange is made unclear also by habit, under the influence of which the exchange in so many cases is not carefully thought out, is not the result of a close comparison of the utilities of goods in present and future moments. The real nature of this exchange is made unclear by the indirect, or induced, gratification derived from wealth. Wealth gives to its owner power, prestige, the esteem of his fellows, and pride in evidences of success and growing prosperity. Its very possession creates a new need and imparts to it another utility, that of insuring against the misery of a declining fortune one who has enjoyed wealth and power. Men make the greatest efforts up to the last moment of life to retain wealth that they will enjoy only in this subtle and indirect way. Thus every motive that leads men to postpone present enjoyment makes them bidders for indirect agents and for future goods, and helps to determine the market rate of premium on the present, and of discount on the future.

[Sidenote: The scarcity of present gratifications]

3. _There being a limited number of indirect agents, their limited powers in a given period limit the supply of present goods._ The principle is familiar that value is always connected with relative scarcity. Now the desire for the present goods is indefinitely large. If the right kind and quality could be had at will, an enormously greater amount of present goods would be used. But the present goods are dependent on indirect agents. The psychic income of a civilized community is dependent on a favorable and extremely refined environment: houses, libraries, theaters, the agencies of travel, as well as the sources supplying the more material needs. These indirect agents, even in the richest community, are limited in variety, in quality, and in number.

[Sidenote: The total of future uses in vastly greater]

But if indirect agents could produce an indefinitely large product at any given moment, the supply of present goods could be indefinitely increased. The supply of utilities, therefore, is limited by "diminis.h.i.+ng returns" in the use of agents, making their maximum yield depend upon the lapse of time. The uses any given material can yield in a limited period have an absolute limit: an acre of land with the most perfect cultivation cannot feed the world; but remove the limit of time, wait an eternity, and the acre would yield an infinite crop. The economic return of a given agent in a given period is reached much sooner than the technical return. If agents are forced to yield more bountifully, it is at the sacrifice of utilities in other agents, and a point of maximum net yield is found in any given period. Here also the lapse of time is the condition of the increase of the net utilities derivable from limited agents.

[Sidenote: The choice open to the investor of money]

4. _The rate of capitalization of income and the rate of contract interest on money capital tend to unite into a single market rate._ A person wis.h.i.+ng to exchange present goods or income for future goods may buy an income-bearer at its capitalized value, or he may create a new rent-bearer. Having saved a sum of money, either he may purchase a factory known to be profitable; or he may hire the services of men and unite them with materials and machinery to create a new industry or a new form of income-bearer; or he may loan his money to others to make either kind of purchase. In any one of the three cases it is evident that capitalization (that is, the discounting of future rents in goods) is the primary and important fact making possible the emergence of a surplus, or net yield, over and above the value of the capital. The expected uses contained not only in whole industrial establishments, but in the particular materials and agents united to form new agents, are purchased at their capitalized value; that is, the future uses have been discounted and have entered into the price of the goods as less than they will be when realized as actual rents. This is the crucial point in the theory either of contract interest or of time value; for to explain the rate of interest as due to the process of "producing" capital agents out of other materials, is to beg the question involved. The surplus yielded by capital above its cost is but the realization of a net income made possible by the discounting of future rents.

[Sidenote: The choice open to the borrower of wealth]

A person wis.h.i.+ng to make an exchange of the opposite kind to that described may sell his wealth for money; he may exchange for present enjoyable goods his income at its capitalized value; or he may use up what he has, let it depreciate, fail to make repairs, convert it to various consumption purposes, and thus invade his earning power. When the interest rate is five per cent., the sacrifice of any unit of regular income permits the spending of twenty times that amount for present enjoyment. The advantages of these various methods tend to equilibrium. If the owners of developed productive agents hold them at too high a capitalized value, investors will apply their efforts and savings to duplicating these forms of wealth. If, in turn, any of the minor factors, as materials or uses of goods, are overvalued (overcapitalized) it will appear ultimately in a check in the demand for them at these prices, and in a reduction in the demand for money loans.

As it is possible for any investor and for any borrower to choose among these investments and loans, there is practically but one rate, the rate which expresses the general ratio of exchange between present and future income. Owners and investors take the line of least resistance, get the most they can for their money, and choose whatever form is most advantageous. The interrelations between the various interest rates are therefore close and constant. The market rate of interest thus extends over all forms of wealth and pervades every phase of business. The value of every durable agent is fixed with reference to a prevailing interest rate, through the discounting to their present worth of all the incomes it is believed to contain.

[Sidenote: A sacrifice sale involves a high rate of interest]

5. _Where goods are sold at forced sale or sacrifice, it is equivalent to a contract loan at a high rate of interest._ Market values being dependent upon market conditions, the offer of goods at a given moment may not find the usual or normal number of buyers or the usual demand.

Just such conditions are most likely to exist at the times when business men feel an unusual need of money. Two courses are open to them in this emergency, either to borrow the money at a very high rate of interest, holding the goods for better prices, or to sell the goods under the unfavorable conditions. The end of both courses is the same--to get ready money; and the methods are not essentially unlike--the exchange of greater future values for present values. The sacrifice sale thus reveals the merchant's high estimate of the interest rate. The purchaser of some kinds of property in times of depression is securing them at a lower capitalization than they will later have. The rise in value may be foreseen as well by seller as by buyer, but the low capitalization reflects the high interest rate temporarily obtaining. A. T. Stewart is said to have laid the foundation of his fortune when, being out of debt himself, he bought up the bankrupt stocks of his compet.i.tors in a great financial panic. The high contract interest at such times is but the reflection of the high premium on present purchasing power. Here then is another mode in which the prevailing rate of interest on money loans is kept in close harmony with the rate of time valuation.

[Sidenote: Interrelations of the money interest rate and of time-discount]

6. _The rate of contract interest on safe long-time loans registers pretty nearly the prevailing rate of time-discount in the community._ There are of course different capital markets, and the estimates put upon next year's income as compared with this year's is very different in Montana, New York, and London. Because of the friction in the transfer of investments from one locality to another, these differences may persist indefinitely; but within each capital market the interest on any particular loan must, for reasons readily seen, tend to conform pretty closely to the prevailing rate. Various groups of men living in the same community have, however, varying estimates of time-value. The increase of safe long-time bonds issued by strong corporations and by wealthy nations as, for example, the New York Central Railroad, and the government of Great Britain, gives a large number of choice investments where the element of risk is almost entirely absent. Various agencies have developed for making the loans, that is, for bringing the borrower and lender together with the minimum of trouble and expense. Other efficient, but somewhat more costly, agencies for bringing together the owners of loanable capital and men wis.h.i.+ng to use capital are savings-banks, building and loan a.s.sociations, insurance companies issuing endowment policies, and mortgage-investment companies of many kinds. While on the one side of the bidding are thousands of lenders offering to exchange ready money for a.s.sured incomes, on the other are thousand of borrowers offering to exchange the promise of a.s.sured incomes for ready money. If either of these cla.s.ses got far out of touch with the prevailing rate of capitalization, to which all the valuations are adjusted, that cla.s.s would lose greatly.

[Sidenote: Relations between the concepts of rent, interest, and time-value]

7. _All the net usufructs actually yielded by wealth are rents; economic time-discount is never a realized income; it is merely a calculation form, or antic.i.p.ation of the difference between present and future gratifications._ There has been much discussion as to what should be the relations in thought between rent and interest. s.p.a.ce permits here only an indication of the view on this question involved in the foregoing treatment. Rent, as the term is here applied, includes all the net productivity attributable to the owners.h.i.+p and use of capital, whether the yield be in economic form (in an increment of value) or in contractual form. Even contract money-interest must be looked upon as a species of the genus contract rent, the peculiarity in the money loan being merely that the thing which it is agreed to return is a certain number of units of the standard money.